With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 19.4x NEXT plc (LON:NXT) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United Kingdom have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the elevated P/E.
NEXT hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.
Check out our latest analysis for NEXT
What Are Growth Metrics Telling Us About The High P/E?
The only time you'd be truly comfortable seeing a P/E as high as NEXT's is when the company's growth is on track to outshine the market.
Retrospectively, the last year delivered a frustrating 6.9% decrease to the company's bottom line. This has soured the latest three-year period, which nevertheless managed to deliver a decent 19% overall rise in EPS. So we can start by confirming that the company has generally done a good job of growing earnings over that time, even though it had some hiccups along the way.
Looking ahead now, EPS is anticipated to climb by 9.5% per annum during the coming three years according to the analysts following the company. That's shaping up to be materially lower than the 16% per year growth forecast for the broader market.
In light of this, it's alarming that NEXT's P/E sits above the majority of other companies. It seems most investors are hoping for a turnaround in the company's business prospects, but the analyst cohort is not so confident this will happen. Only the boldest would assume these prices are sustainable as this level of earnings growth is likely to weigh heavily on the share price eventually.
The Key Takeaway
Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.
Our examination of NEXT's analyst forecasts revealed that its inferior earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E anywhere near as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are increasingly uncomfortable with the high P/E as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. This places shareholders' investments at significant risk and potential investors in danger of paying an excessive premium.
There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for NEXT that you should be aware of.
If these risks are making you reconsider your opinion on NEXT, explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.