A Look At The Intrinsic Value Of JD Sports Fashion Plc (LON:JD.)

Key Insights

• Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, JD Sports Fashion fair value estimate is UK£0.93
• Current share price of UK£0.88 suggests JD Sports Fashion is potentially trading close to its fair value
• The UK£1.18 analyst price target for JD. is 27% more than our estimate of fair value

In this article we are going to estimate the intrinsic value of JD Sports Fashion Plc (LON:JD.) by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to their present value. This will be done using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model. Don't get put off by the jargon, the math behind it is actually quite straightforward.

We would caution that there are many ways of valuing a company and, like the DCF, each technique has advantages and disadvantages in certain scenarios. For those who are keen learners of equity analysis, the Simply Wall St analysis model here may be something of interest to you.

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The Calculation

We're using the 2-stage growth model, which simply means we take in account two stages of company's growth. In the initial period the company may have a higher growth rate and the second stage is usually assumed to have a stable growth rate. To begin with, we have to get estimates of the next ten years of cash flows. Where possible we use analyst estimates, but when these aren't available we extrapolate the previous free cash flow (FCF) from the last estimate or reported value. We assume companies with shrinking free cash flow will slow their rate of shrinkage, and that companies with growing free cash flow will see their growth rate slow, over this period. We do this to reflect that growth tends to slow more in the early years than it does in later years.

Generally we assume that a dollar today is more valuable than a dollar in the future, so we need to discount the sum of these future cash flows to arrive at a present value estimate:

10-year free cash flow (FCF) forecast

	2026	2027	2028	2029	2030	2031	2032	2033	2034	2035
Levered FCF (£, Millions)	UK£344.0m	UK£551.8m	UK£678.8m	UK£773.5m	UK£581.0m	UK£479.4m	UK£424.6m	UK£394.1m	UK£377.6m	UK£369.6m
Growth Rate Estimate Source	Analyst x3	Analyst x6	Analyst x5	Analyst x2	Analyst x1	Est @ -17.49%	Est @ -11.42%	Est @ -7.17%	Est @ -4.20%	Est @ -2.12%
Present Value (£, Millions) Discounted @ 11%	UK£310	UK£449	UK£498	UK£511	UK£346	UK£258	UK£206	UK£172	UK£149	UK£131

("Est" = FCF growth rate estimated by Simply Wall St)
Present Value of 10-year Cash Flow (PVCF) = UK£3.0b

The second stage is also known as Terminal Value, this is the business's cash flow after the first stage. For a number of reasons a very conservative growth rate is used that cannot exceed that of a country's GDP growth. In this case we have used the 5-year average of the 10-year government bond yield (2.7%) to estimate future growth. In the same way as with the 10-year 'growth' period, we discount future cash flows to today's value, using a cost of equity of 11%.

Terminal Value (TV)= FCF₂₀₃₅ × (1 + g) ÷ (r – g) = UK£370m× (1 + 2.7%) ÷ (11%– 2.7%) = UK£4.7b

Present Value of Terminal Value (PVTV)= TV / (1 + r)¹⁰= UK£4.7b÷ ( 1 + 11%)¹⁰= UK£1.7b

The total value is the sum of cash flows for the next ten years plus the discounted terminal value, which results in the Total Equity Value, which in this case is UK£4.7b. The last step is to then divide the equity value by the number of shares outstanding. Relative to the current share price of UK£0.9, the company appears about fair value at a 5.0% discount to where the stock price trades currently. Remember though, that this is just an approximate valuation, and like any complex formula - garbage in, garbage out.

Important Assumptions

The calculation above is very dependent on two assumptions. The first is the discount rate and the other is the cash flows. Part of investing is coming up with your own evaluation of a company's future performance, so try the calculation yourself and check your own assumptions. The DCF also does not consider the possible cyclicality of an industry, or a company's future capital requirements, so it does not give a full picture of a company's potential performance. Given that we are looking at JD Sports Fashion as potential shareholders, the cost of equity is used as the discount rate, rather than the cost of capital (or weighted average cost of capital, WACC) which accounts for debt. In this calculation we've used 11%, which is based on a levered beta of 1.599. Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility, compared to the market as a whole. We get our beta from the industry average beta of globally comparable companies, with an imposed limit between 0.8 and 2.0, which is a reasonable range for a stable business.

View our latest analysis for JD Sports Fashion

SWOT Analysis for JD Sports Fashion

Next Steps:

Whilst important, the DCF calculation ideally won't be the sole piece of analysis you scrutinize for a company. DCF models are not the be-all and end-all of investment valuation. Preferably you'd apply different cases and assumptions and see how they would impact the company's valuation. For instance, if the terminal value growth rate is adjusted slightly, it can dramatically alter the overall result. For JD Sports Fashion, we've put together three further factors you should explore:

1. Risks: You should be aware of the 1 warning sign for JD Sports Fashion we've uncovered before considering an investment in the company.
2. Future Earnings: How does JD.'s growth rate compare to its peers and the wider market? Dig deeper into the analyst consensus number for the upcoming years by interacting with our free analyst growth expectation chart.
3. Other High Quality Alternatives: Do you like a good all-rounder? Explore our interactive list of high quality stocks to get an idea of what else is out there you may be missing!

PS. The Simply Wall St app conducts a discounted cash flow valuation for every stock on the LSE every day. If you want to find the calculation for other stocks just search here.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.