Glencore Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of GLEN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

GLEN (£3.83) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£5.12)

Is GLEN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

6/6

Valuation Score 6/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GLEN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GLEN (£3.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£5.12)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GLEN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GLEN?

Key metric: As GLEN is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for GLEN. This is calculated by dividing GLEN's market cap by their current revenue.
What is GLEN's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio	0.3x
Sales	US$227.51b
Market Cap	US$59.75b

GLEN key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	0.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	7.3x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does GLEN's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for GLEN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	1.9x
AAL Anglo American	1.3x	0.9%	UK£30.4b
RIO Rio Tinto Group	1.9x	-0.3%	UK£86.8b
ANTO Antofagasta	3.5x	8.7%	UK£17.3b
KMR Kenmare Resources	1x	5.5%	UK£304.3m
GLEN Glencore	0.3x	-1.0%	UK£46.9b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: GLEN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the peer average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does GLEN's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Metals and Mining Industry?

14 Companies	Price / Sales	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	1.9x	1.2%
GLEN Glencore	0.3x	-1.0%	US$59.75b
NLMK Novolipetsk Steel	0.3x	n/a	US$4.08b
EVR EVRAZ	0.1x	-8.5%	US$1.42b

14 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Industry Avg.	1.9x	23.0%
GLEN Glencore	0.3x	42.8%	US$59.75b

No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: GLEN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the UK Metals and Mining industry average (1.9x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GLEN's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GLEN PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.3x
Fair PS Ratio	0.7x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: GLEN is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GLEN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	UK£3.83	UK£5.00 +30.5%	7.7%	UK£5.61	UK£4.28	n/a	15
Dec ’25	UK£3.80	UK£5.04 +32.5%	7.7%	UK£5.61	UK£4.28	n/a	15
Nov ’25	UK£4.08	UK£5.00 +22.6%	7.5%	UK£5.53	UK£4.28	n/a	15
Oct ’25	UK£4.29	UK£4.90 +14.2%	8.6%	UK£6.00	UK£4.23	n/a	15
Sep ’25	UK£4.01	UK£5.01 +25.0%	7.7%	UK£5.80	UK£4.27	n/a	15
Aug ’25	UK£4.15	UK£5.25 +26.4%	8.0%	UK£6.04	UK£4.41	n/a	14
Jul ’25	UK£4.62	UK£5.16 +11.7%	7.3%	UK£5.74	UK£4.57	n/a	13
Jun ’25	UK£4.81	UK£4.99 +3.8%	9.3%	UK£5.57	UK£4.09	n/a	13
May ’25	UK£4.67	UK£4.99 +7.0%	10.7%	UK£5.67	UK£3.69	n/a	13
Apr ’25	UK£4.35	UK£4.88 +12.1%	11.2%	UK£5.85	UK£3.65	n/a	13
Mar ’25	UK£3.82	UK£4.84 +26.6%	10.4%	UK£5.86	UK£3.90	n/a	13
Feb ’25	UK£4.26	UK£5.20 +22.1%	11.4%	UK£6.21	UK£3.99	n/a	14
Jan ’25	UK£4.72	UK£5.27 +11.5%	9.1%	UK£6.21	UK£4.54	n/a	13
Dec ’24	UK£4.58	UK£5.37 +17.3%	8.5%	UK£6.24	UK£4.57	UK£3.80	12
Nov ’24	UK£4.32	UK£5.54 +28.3%	9.0%	UK£6.48	UK£4.86	UK£4.08	11
Oct ’24	UK£4.70	UK£5.73 +22.0%	7.8%	UK£6.61	UK£5.24	UK£4.29	11
Sep ’24	UK£4.27	UK£5.54 +29.8%	8.8%	UK£6.60	UK£5.02	UK£4.01	12
Aug ’24	UK£4.71	UK£5.52 +17.2%	8.4%	UK£6.59	UK£5.06	UK£4.15	12
Jul ’24	UK£4.45	UK£5.68 +27.9%	7.4%	UK£6.50	UK£5.18	UK£4.62	12
Jun ’24	UK£4.17	UK£5.90 +41.6%	9.2%	UK£6.94	UK£5.05	UK£4.81	13
May ’24	UK£4.69	UK£5.90 +25.8%	9.1%	UK£6.91	UK£5.04	UK£4.67	13
Apr ’24	UK£4.65	UK£6.05 +30.2%	8.4%	UK£7.01	UK£5.11	UK£4.35	17
Mar ’24	UK£5.13	UK£6.27 +22.2%	8.6%	UK£7.23	UK£5.27	UK£3.82	18
Feb ’24	UK£5.43	UK£6.28 +15.9%	10.1%	UK£7.46	UK£5.12	UK£4.26	18
Jan ’24	UK£5.52	UK£6.32 +14.5%	11.9%	UK£7.68	UK£4.58	UK£4.72	19
Dec ’23	UK£5.57	UK£6.28 +12.7%	11.8%	UK£7.70	UK£4.59	UK£4.58	19

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.