Fresnillo (LON:FRES) Could Be At Risk Of Shrinking As A Company

When researching a stock for investment, what can tell us that the company is in decline? A business that's potentially in decline often shows two trends, a return on capital employed (ROCE) that's declining, and a base of capital employed that's also declining. Ultimately this means that the company is earning less per dollar invested and on top of that, it's shrinking its base of capital employed. And from a first read, things don't look too good at Fresnillo (LON:FRES), so let's see why.

Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE)

If you haven't worked with ROCE before, it measures the 'return' (pre-tax profit) a company generates from capital employed in its business. To calculate this metric for Fresnillo, this is the formula:

Return on Capital Employed = Earnings Before Interest and Tax (EBIT) ÷ (Total Assets - Current Liabilities)

0.025 = US$132m ÷ (US$5.9b - US$598m) (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2023).

Therefore, Fresnillo has an ROCE of 2.5%. In absolute terms, that's a low return and it also under-performs the Metals and Mining industry average of 11%.

View our latest analysis for Fresnillo

Above you can see how the current ROCE for Fresnillo compares to its prior returns on capital, but there's only so much you can tell from the past. If you're interested, you can view the analysts predictions in our free report on analyst forecasts for the company.

So How Is Fresnillo's ROCE Trending?

There is reason to be cautious about Fresnillo, given the returns are trending downwards. About five years ago, returns on capital were 16%, however they're now substantially lower than that as we saw above. And on the capital employed front, the business is utilizing roughly the same amount of capital as it was back then. Companies that exhibit these attributes tend to not be shrinking, but they can be mature and facing pressure on their margins from competition. If these trends continue, we wouldn't expect Fresnillo to turn into a multi-bagger.

Our Take On Fresnillo's ROCE

In summary, it's unfortunate that Fresnillo is generating lower returns from the same amount of capital. Long term shareholders who've owned the stock over the last five years have experienced a 26% depreciation in their investment, so it appears the market might not like these trends either. With underlying trends that aren't great in these areas, we'd consider looking elsewhere.

If you'd like to know about the risks facing Fresnillo, we've discovered 1 warning sign that you should be aware of.

While Fresnillo isn't earning the highest return, check out this free list of companies that are earning high returns on equity with solid balance sheets.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.