Stock Analysis

Read This Before Considering Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO) For Its Upcoming US$0.079 Dividend

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LSE:ANTO

Some investors rely on dividends for growing their wealth, and if you're one of those dividend sleuths, you might be intrigued to know that Antofagasta plc (LON:ANTO) is about to go ex-dividend in just 3 days. The ex-dividend date occurs one day before the record date which is the day on which shareholders need to be on the company's books in order to receive a dividend. The ex-dividend date is important as the process of settlement involves two full business days. So if you miss that date, you would not show up on the company's books on the record date. Accordingly, Antofagasta investors that purchase the stock on or after the 5th of September will not receive the dividend, which will be paid on the 30th of September.

The company's upcoming dividend is US$0.079 a share, following on from the last 12 months, when the company distributed a total of US$0.32 per share to shareholders. Last year's total dividend payments show that Antofagasta has a trailing yield of 1.3% on the current share price of UK£18.53. Dividends are an important source of income to many shareholders, but the health of the business is crucial to maintaining those dividends. That's why we should always check whether the dividend payments appear sustainable, and if the company is growing.

View our latest analysis for Antofagasta

If a company pays out more in dividends than it earned, then the dividend might become unsustainable - hardly an ideal situation. That's why it's good to see Antofagasta paying out a modest 42% of its earnings. Yet cash flow is typically more important than profit for assessing dividend sustainability, so we should always check if the company generated enough cash to afford its dividend. Antofagasta paid out more free cash flow than it generated - 118%, to be precise - last year, which we think is concerningly high. It's hard to consistently pay out more cash than you generate without either borrowing or using company cash, so we'd wonder how the company justifies this payout level.

Antofagasta paid out less in dividends than it reported in profits, but unfortunately it didn't generate enough cash to cover the dividend. Were this to happen repeatedly, this would be a risk to Antofagasta's ability to maintain its dividend.

Click here to see the company's payout ratio, plus analyst estimates of its future dividends.

LSE:ANTO Historic Dividend September 1st 2024

Have Earnings And Dividends Been Growing?

Businesses with strong growth prospects usually make the best dividend payers, because it's easier to grow dividends when earnings per share are improving. If earnings decline and the company is forced to cut its dividend, investors could watch the value of their investment go up in smoke. With that in mind, we're encouraged by the steady growth at Antofagasta, with earnings per share up 9.2% on average over the last five years. Earnings have been growing at a steady rate, but we're concerned dividend payments consumed most of the company's cash flow over the past year.

The main way most investors will assess a company's dividend prospects is by checking the historical rate of dividend growth. Antofagasta's dividend payments per share have declined at 11% per year on average over the past 10 years, which is uninspiring. It's unusual to see earnings per share increasing at the same time as dividends per share have been in decline. We'd hope it's because the company is reinvesting heavily in its business, but it could also suggest business is lumpy.

The Bottom Line

Should investors buy Antofagasta for the upcoming dividend? Antofagasta has seen its earnings per share grow steadily and paid out less than half its profit over the last year. Unfortunately, its dividend was not well covered by free cash flow. In summary, while it has some positive characteristics, we're not inclined to race out and buy Antofagasta today.

If you're not too concerned about Antofagasta's ability to pay dividends, you should still be mindful of some of the other risks that this business faces. For example - Antofagasta has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

If you're in the market for strong dividend payers, we recommend checking our selection of top dividend stocks.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.