Here's Why A.G. BARR's (LON:BAG) Statutory Earnings Are Arguably Too Conservative

It might be old fashioned, but we really like to invest in companies that make a profit, each and every year. That said, the current statutory profit is not always a good guide to a company's underlying profitability. This article will consider whether A.G. BARR's (LON:BAG) statutory profits are a good guide to its underlying earnings.

We like the fact that A.G. BARR made a profit of UK£20.9m on its revenue of UK£246.4m, in the last year. The chart below shows that both revenue and profit have declined over the last three years.

View our latest analysis for A.G. BARR

Importantly, statutory profits are not always the best tool for understanding a company's true earnings power, so it's well worth examining profits in a little more detail. So today we'll look at what A.G. BARR's cashflow and unusual items tell us about the quality of its earnings. That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

Examining Cashflow Against A.G. BARR's Earnings

Many investors haven't heard of the accrual ratio from cashflow, but it is actually a useful measure of how well a company's profit is backed up by free cash flow (FCF) during a given period. To get the accrual ratio we first subtract FCF from profit for a period, and then divide that number by the average operating assets for the period. You could think of the accrual ratio from cashflow as the 'non-FCF profit ratio'.

As a result, a negative accrual ratio is a positive for the company, and a positive accrual ratio is a negative. That is not intended to imply we should worry about a positive accrual ratio, but it's worth noting where the accrual ratio is rather high. Notably, there is some academic evidence that suggests that a high accrual ratio is a bad sign for near-term profits, generally speaking.

For the year to July 2020, A.G. BARR had an accrual ratio of -0.12. Therefore, its statutory earnings were quite a lot less than its free cashflow. To wit, it produced free cash flow of UK£43m during the period, dwarfing its reported profit of UK£20.9m. A.G. BARR shareholders are no doubt pleased that free cash flow improved over the last twelve months. Having said that, there is more to the story. The accrual ratio is reflecting the impact of unusual items on statutory profit, at least in part.

How Do Unusual Items Influence Profit?

A.G. BARR's profit was reduced by unusual items worth UK£11m in the last twelve months, and this helped it produce high cash conversion, as reflected by its unusual items. In a scenario where those unusual items included non-cash charges, we'd expect to see a strong accrual ratio, which is exactly what has happened in this case. It's never great to see unusual items costing the company profits, but on the upside, things might improve sooner rather than later. We looked at thousands of listed companies and found that unusual items are very often one-off in nature. And that's hardly a surprise given these line items are considered unusual. Assuming those unusual expenses don't come up again, we'd therefore expect A.G. BARR to produce a higher profit next year, all else being equal.

Our Take On A.G. BARR's Profit Performance

In conclusion, both A.G. BARR's accrual ratio and its unusual items suggest that its statutory earnings are probably reasonably conservative. Based on these factors, we think A.G. BARR's earnings potential is at least as good as it seems, and maybe even better! So while earnings quality is important, it's equally important to consider the risks facing A.G. BARR at this point in time. For example, we've discovered 2 warning signs that you should run your eye over to get a better picture of A.G. BARR.

Our examination of A.G. BARR has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And it has passed with flying colours. But there is always more to discover if you are capable of focussing your mind on minutiae. Some people consider a high return on equity to be a good sign of a quality business. So you may wish to see this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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