Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • May 27
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to UK£2.40, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Total returns to shareholders of 151% over the past three years. Announcement • May 22
Ithaca Energy plc Reaffirms Production Guidance for the Fiscal Year 2026 Ithaca Energy plc reaffirmed production guidance for the fiscal year 2026. For the year, the company expects production to be in the range of 120 kboe/d to 130 kboe/d. Reported Earnings • May 22
First quarter 2026 earnings released: EPS: US$0.041 (vs US$0.16 loss in 1Q 2025) First quarter 2026 results: EPS: US$0.041 (up from US$0.16 loss in 1Q 2025). Revenue: US$881.9m (up 25% from 1Q 2025). Net income: US$67.4m (up US$326.1m from 1Q 2025). Profit margin: 7.6% (up from net loss in 1Q 2025). The move to profitability was primarily driven by higher revenue. Revenue is expected to decline by 4.1% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 1.7%. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has fallen by 21% per year but the company’s share price has increased by 16% per year, which means it is well ahead of earnings. New Risk • May 21
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 7.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks High level of debt (48% net debt to equity). Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.3% average weekly change). Announcement • May 15
Ithaca Energy plc to Report Q1, 2026 Results on May 20, 2026 Ithaca Energy plc announced that they will report Q1, 2026 results on May 20, 2026 Announcement • Apr 15
Ithaca Energy plc, Annual General Meeting, May 13, 2026 Ithaca Energy plc, Annual General Meeting, May 13, 2026. Location: p and j live, east burn road, ab21 9fx, aberdeen United Kingdom New Risk • Mar 23
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 7.4% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (48% net debt to equity). Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.4% average weekly change). Declared Dividend • Mar 20
Dividend of US$0.12 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.12. Ex-date: 26th March 2026 Payment date: 16th April 2026 Dividend yield will be 9.6%, which is higher than the industry average of 6.7%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is covered by cash flows (58% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 4.6% per year over the past 3 years. However, payments have been volatile during that time. Reported Earnings • Mar 18
Full year 2025 earnings released: US$0.051 loss per share (vs US$0.13 profit in FY 2024) Full year 2025 results: US$0.051 loss per share (down from US$0.13 profit in FY 2024). Revenue: US$2.95b (up 49% from FY 2024). Net loss: US$84.1m (down 155% from profit in FY 2024). Revenue is expected to decline by 2.9% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 2.3%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 90 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Mar 12
Ithaca Energy plc to Report Fiscal Year 2025 Results on Mar 18, 2026 Ithaca Energy plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2025 results on Mar 18, 2026 Declared Dividend • Nov 21
Dividend of US$0.08 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.08. Ex-date: 27th November 2025 Payment date: 18th December 2025 Dividend yield will be 12%, which is higher than the industry average of 6.7%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is covered by cash flows (65% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 36 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. Reported Earnings • Nov 20
Third quarter 2025 earnings: Revenues exceed analysts expectations while EPS lags behind Third quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.06 (up from US$0.029 in 3Q 2024). Revenue: US$695.7m (up 81% from 3Q 2024). Net income: US$98.3m (up 239% from 3Q 2024). Profit margin: 14% (up from 7.5% in 3Q 2024). The increase in margin was driven by higher revenue. Revenue exceeded analyst estimates by 13%. Earnings per share (EPS) missed analyst estimates by 1.7%. Revenue is expected to decline by 1.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom are expected to grow by 2.5%. Over the last 3 years on average, the company's share price growth rate has exceeded its earnings growth rate by 99 percentage points per year, which is a significant difference in performance. Announcement • Nov 20
Ithaca Energy plc Announces Second Interim Dividend for 2025, Payable on 18 December 2025 Ithaca Energy plc announced its second interim dividend for 2025 of $133 million, representing $0.0804 per ordinary share. The second interim dividend will be paid on 18 December 2025 to shareholders on the share register on 28 November 2025. The dividend is payable in cash in Sterling to holders of the ordinary shares. New Risk • Sep 03
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 6.9% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (64% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (6.9% average weekly change). Declared Dividend • Aug 22
Dividend of US$0.10 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.10. Ex-date: 4th September 2025 Payment date: 26th September 2025 Dividend yield will be 13%, which is higher than the industry average of 6.7%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is being paid despite the company being loss-making over the last 12 months. However, the dividend is covered by cash flows (53% cash payout ratio). The dividend has decreased over the past 36 years, indicating a lack of growth and stability in payments. Reported Earnings • Aug 21
Second quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations Second quarter 2025 results: EPS: US$0.025 (down from US$0.063 in 2Q 2024). Revenue: US$746.4m (up 106% from 2Q 2024). Net income: US$41.1m (down 35% from 2Q 2024). Profit margin: 5.5% (down from 17% in 2Q 2024). The decrease in margin was driven by higher expenses. Revenue missed analyst estimates by 2.2%. Earnings per share (EPS) also missed analyst estimates by 66%. Revenue is forecast to stay flat during the next 3 years compared to a 13% growth forecast for the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. New Risk • Aug 20
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (64% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Announcement • Jul 03
Ithaca Energy plc to Report First Half, 2025 Results on Aug 20, 2025 Ithaca Energy plc announced that they will report first half, 2025 results on Aug 20, 2025 New Risk • Jun 11
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.7% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 9.7% per year for the foreseeable future. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (64% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. New Risk • May 29
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.0% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2.0% per year for the foreseeable future. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (64% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Paying a dividend despite being loss-making. Reported Earnings • May 23
First quarter 2025 earnings: EPS and revenues miss analyst expectations First quarter 2025 results: US$0.16 loss per share (down from US$0.042 profit in 1Q 2024). Revenue: US$707.6m (up 47% from 1Q 2024). Net loss: US$258.7m (down US$301.4m from profit in 1Q 2024). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 12%. Earnings per share (EPS) were also behind analyst expectations. Revenue is forecast to grow 2.7% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom are expected to remain flat. Announcement • May 21
Ithaca Energy plc Reaffirms Production Guidance for the Full Year 2025 Ithaca Energy plc reaffirmed production guidance for the full year 2025. For the period, the company expects production in range of 109-119 kboe/d. Major Estimate Revision • May 20
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2025 has deteriorated. 2025 revenue forecast decreased from US$3.02b to US$2.94b. EPS estimate also fell from US$0.16 per share to US$0.141 per share. Net income forecast to grow 91% next year vs 17% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£1.43. Share price fell 8.0% to UK£1.29 over the past week. New Risk • May 19
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 167% Cash payout ratio: 93% Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 0.3% per year for the foreseeable future. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (64% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.7% net profit margin). Announcement • May 16
Ithaca Energy Limited Proposes Settlement of Litigation This Notice is directed to all persons and entities, excluding certain persons associated with the Defendants, wherever they may reside or be domiciled, who purchased or otherwise acquired Ithaca Energy Inc., now known as Ithaca Energy Limited ("Ithaca") common shares in the secondary market, on or after October 9, 2014, and held some or all of those securities until after the close of trading on February 24, 2015. A class action brought on behalf of Class Members has been settled, subject to approval from the Court. This Notice provides Class Members with information about the Settlement and their rights to participate in the Court proceedings considering whether to approve the Settlement (including each putative Class Member's right to attend the hearing to approve the Settlement, or to object to the Settlement ("Approval Hearing")). On May 26, 2015, a proposed class action was commenced on behalf of investors who purchased Ithaca common shares in the secondary market during the Class Period, against Ithaca in the Alberta Court of King's Bench: Stevens v. Ithaca Energy Inc.(now, Ithaca Energy Limited) Court File no. 1501-05830 (the " Action"). The Plaintiff in the Action alleges that the Defendant made misrepresentations during the Class Period related to Ithaca's offshore oil and gas business and operations concerning: (1) material modifications to its floating production facility the FPF-1; and (2) corresponding 2015 pro forma production and revenue projections for the Greater Stella Area in the Central North Sea. Ithaca denies all such allegations. The parties have reached a proposed settlement of the Action, without an admission of liability on the part of the Defendant, subject to approval by the Court. Ithaca's insurer will pay CAD $9 million (the "Settlement Amount"), in full and final settlement of all claims against Ithaca in the Action. The Settlement Amount, less administration expenses, class counsel fees, interest, taxes and any other costs or expenses related to the Action or the Settlement (the "Net Settlement Amount"), if approved by the Court, will be distributed to the Class in accordance with a court-approved Plan of Allocation. If the Settlement is approved, a further notice will be published which will include instructions on how Class Members can file Claim Forms to participate in the distribution of the Net Settlement Amount and the deadline for doing so. The Settlement provides that if it is approved by the Court, the claims of all Class Members which were asserted or which could have been asserted in the Action, will be fully and finally released and the Action will be dismissed. The Court will be asked to approve the proposed Settlement and the lawyers' fees, disbursements, expenses and taxes at a hearing to be held on August 7, 2025 at 2:00 p.m. by videoconference. Class Members who do not oppose the proposed Settlement are not required to appear at the hearing or take any other action at this time to indicate their desire to participate in the proposed settlement. Class Members who oppose the proposed Settlement may have their opposition heard by filing an Objection (see "Objections" below). Class Members who consider it desirable or necessary to seek the advice and guidance of their own lawyers may do so at their own expense. Class Members may attend the Approval Hearing whether or not they deliver an objection. The Court may permit Class Members to participate in the Approval Hearing whether or not they deliver an objection. Class Members who wish for a lawyer to speak on their behalf at the Approval Hearing may retain one to do so at their own expense. Announcement • May 03
Ithaca Energy plc to Report Q1, 2025 Results on May 21, 2025 Ithaca Energy plc announced that they will report Q1, 2025 results on May 21, 2025 New Risk • Apr 23
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 7.6% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 167% Cash payout ratio: 93% Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (62% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.6% average weekly change). Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.7% net profit margin). New Risk • Apr 14
New minor risk - Profit margin trend The company's profit margins are lower than last year and have reduced by more than 30%. Net profit margin: 7.7% Last year net profit margin: 13% This is considered a minor risk. A large drop in profit margin could indicate the company does not have strong competitive advantages or it is yet to establish itself and its core business. Even if it is a well established business, this may make it a much riskier investment than one that has a combination of proven competitive advantages and a stable or growing profit margin. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 167% Cash payout ratio: 93% Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (62% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (7.7% net profit margin). Announcement • Apr 11
Ithaca Energy plc, Annual General Meeting, May 14, 2025 Ithaca Energy plc, Annual General Meeting, May 14, 2025. Location: p and j live, east burn road, ab21 9fx, scotland, aberdeen United Kingdom Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Apr 04
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 19% After last week's 19% share price decline to UK£1.33, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 4x in the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Total returns to shareholders of 38% over the past year. Simply Wall St's valuation model estimates the intrinsic value at UK£0.67 per share. Declared Dividend • Mar 28
Dividend of US$0.12 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.12. Ex-date: 3rd April 2025 Payment date: 25th April 2025 Dividend yield will be 18%, which is higher than the industry average of 6.7%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (210% earnings payout ratio) nor is it covered by cash flows (173% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 22% per year over the past 2 years and payments have been stable during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 133% to bring the payout ratio under control. However, EPS is expected to remain steady over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. New Risk • Mar 27
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.0% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 210% Cash payout ratio: 173% Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 1.0% per year for the foreseeable future. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (62% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risk Large one-off items impacting financial results. Reported Earnings • Mar 27
Full year 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Full year 2024 results: EPS: US$0.13 (down from US$0.21 in FY 2023). Revenue: US$1.98b (down 15% from FY 2023). Net income: US$153.2m (down 29% from FY 2023). Profit margin: 7.7% (down from 9.3% in FY 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 6.7%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 1.5%. Revenue is forecast to grow 4.8% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom are expected to remain flat. Announcement • Mar 25
Ithaca Energy plc (LSE:ITH) has signed a sale and purchase agreement to acquire 15% stake in Japex Uk E&P Limited from Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. (TSE:1662) in a transaction valued at approximately $190 million. Ithaca Energy plc (LSE:ITH) has signed a sale and purchase agreement to acquire Japex Uk E&P Limited from Japan Petroleum Exploration Co., Ltd. (TSE:1662) in a transaction valued at approximately $190 million on March 25, 2025. he Transaction, which is subject to the satisfaction of certain conditions including regulatory approval, will increase Ithaca Energy's WI in Seagull from 35% to 50%, equalling bp's interest as the field operator. The transaction is expected to be completed on June 30, 2025. New Risk • Feb 20
New minor risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 75% of British stocks, typically moving 7.3% a week. This is considered a minor risk. Share price volatility indicates the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. It also increases the risk of potential losses in the short term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings and cash flows. Payout ratio: 210% Cash payout ratio: 102% Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (62% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (7.3% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Announcement • Feb 20
Ithaca Energy plc to Report Fiscal Year 2024 Results on Mar 26, 2025 Ithaca Energy plc announced that they will report fiscal year 2024 results at 8:00 AM, GMT Standard Time on Mar 26, 2025 Major Estimate Revision • Jan 23
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 23% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$2.03b to US$2.13b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.116 to US$0.142 per share. Net income forecast to grow 132% next year vs 44% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£1.42. Share price fell 8.8% to UK£1.27 over the past week. Announcement • Dec 24
Ithaca Energy plc Announces the Results of Recent Exploration Drilling at the Jocelyn South Prospect Ithaca Energy plc announced the results of recent exploration drilling at the Jocelyn South prospect (P032) in Block 30/07a, located in the Central North Sea of the UK Continental Shelf. Upon entering the reservoir, Harbour Energy (as " Operator") informed Ithaca EF Limited, a subsidiary of Ithaca Energy plc, holding a 33% working interest in the prospect that signs of hydrocarbons were present. The top of the Joanne Reservoir was encountered in the well at the depth of 12,620ft TVDSS (17,763ft MD). Gas condensate (not sampled) was encountered in the Joanne sandstone reservoir, with a provisional net pay thickness in the well of 434ft MD (or 307.6ft TVT). Logging while drilling data, cuttings and pressures were recorded during drilling to establish reservoir quality and fluid parameters. The Operator intends to complete data gathering and evaluate the drilling results to establish commerciality of the reservoir. Jocelyn South forms part of the Harbour Energy operated J-Area, where Ithaca Energy is a partner in the Jade field (32.5% working interest), Judy field (33.0% working interest), Jasmine field (33.0%. working interest) and the Talbot field (33.0% Working interest) which recently achieved first production in November 2024. Major Estimate Revision • Nov 26
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 16% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from US$0.163 to US$0.137 per share. Revenue forecast steady at US$2.10b. Net income forecast to grow 41% next year vs 56% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target down from UK£1.47 to UK£1.40. Share price rose 14% to UK£1.14 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 25
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to UK£1.16, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 8x. Average forward P/E is 3x in the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 14% over the past year. Announcement • Nov 21
Ithaca Energy plc Announces Special Dividend for 2024, Payable on 20 December 2024 Ithaca Energy plc announced a special dividend for 2024 of $200 million, representing $0.1209 per ordinary share. The special dividend will be paid on 20 December 2024 to shareholders on the share register on 29 November 2024. Announcement • Nov 06
Ithaca Energy plc to Report Q3, 2024 Results on Nov 21, 2024 Ithaca Energy plc announced that they will report Q3, 2024 results on Nov 21, 2024 Announcement • Oct 08
Ithaca Energy plc Announces Appointment of Tamir Polikar as A Non-Executive Director Ithaca Energy plc is announced the appointment of Mr. Tamir Polikar as a non-executive director to its board of directors as nominee of Ithaca Energy's majority shareholder, Delek Group Ltd. Mr. Polikar previously served as a director of Ithaca Energy plc from 2020 to 2022 prior to the Group's listing on the London Stock Exchange. Subsequent to the Group's listing, he acted as an observer on the Board on behalf of the Delek Group. Mr. Polikar was appointed the Principal Chief Financial Officer of the Delek Group Ltd. in August 2020. Alongside this role, he serves as a director of the Delek Group Ltd. subsidiaries, as well as a director and business consultant of Polikar Holdings Ltd, a company engaged in real estate development in Israel and Bulgaria. In the past five years, Mr. Polikar has served as the Deputy CEO of the Delek Group Ltd, and previously held the position of CEO of the Aspen Group. Mr. Polikar brings with him a deep level of expertise in business and management, especially in the energy and real estate sectors. He is a Certified Public Accountant and holds an MBA from Heriot-Watt University in Scotland. New Risk • Oct 06
New major risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 62% This is considered a major risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 8.8% per year for the foreseeable future. Shareholders have been substantially diluted in the past year (62% increase in shares outstanding). Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by cash flows (95% cash payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Major Estimate Revision • Oct 06
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 14% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate increased from US$0.136 to US$0.155. Revenue forecast steady at US$2.06b. Net income forecast to grow 31% next year vs 38% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target of UK£1.44 unchanged from last update. Share price rose 9.0% to UK£1.16 over the past week. Announcement • Oct 04
Ithaca Energy plc (LSE:ITH) completed the acquisition of substantially all of its upstream assets in the UK from Eni UK Limited. Ithaca Energy plc (LSE:ITH) reached an agreement to acquire substantially all of its upstream assets in the UK from Eni UK Limited for approximately £750 million on April 23, 2024. Under the terms, Eni will transfer the Eni UK Business to Ithaca Energy in exchange for the issuance of such number of new Ithaca Energy shares to Eni UK as is equal to 38.5% of the fully diluted issued share capital of Ithaca Energy at Completion. Using the number of Ithaca Energy shares outstanding as at April 23, 2024, 635,013,542 Consideration Shares valued at £754 million would be issued to Eni UK to reflect the Merger Ratio. The transaction excludes East Irish Sea assets and CCUS activities. In 2023, the Eni UK Business generated £623 million of EBITDA. From Completion, it is anticipated that Eni will be entitled to recommend the nomination of the next proposed CEO of the Combined Group in accordance with the policies and processes of Ithaca’s Nomination and Governance Committee. The Ithaca Energy Board have determined that the Combination is in the best interests of Ithaca Energy based on a number of factors and intend unanimously to recommend that shareholders vote in favour of the relevant resolutions at the shareholder meeting to be held to approve the Combination and the allotment and issue of the Consideration Shares to Eni UK, amongst other things. The Completion expected to occur in Q3 2024, subject to Ithaca Energy shareholder approval at a general meeting convened pursuant to an FCA-approved circular, FCA and London Stock Exchange approval of the admission of the Consideration Shares, satisfaction of certain regulatory approvals in the UK, completion of certain pre-sale reorganization steps in relation to the Eni UK assets and other customary conditions precedent. As on August 22, 2024, Ithaca Energy is pleased to announce that the following receipt of approval from the Financial Conduct Authority, published its prospectus and its shareholder circular in relation to the proposed combination with substantially all of Eni S.p.A.'s UK upstream oil and gas assets. The Group is making good progress with the required regulatory approvals and the Combination is expected to complete in Q4.Paul Wheeler, Sam Barnett, Philip Clausen-Thue, and Will Soutar of Jefferies International acted as Financial Advisor to Ithaca Energy. Morgan Stanley International Limited acted as financial advisor to Eni UK Limited. Rosalie Chadwick and Jonathan Woolf and Julian Stanier of Pinsent Masons acted as legal advisors to Ithaca Energy plc (LSE:ITH).
On September 11, 2024, Ithaca Energy is pleased to announce that the resolution put to the General Meeting voted on by way of a poll was duly approved without amendment by the requisite majority of shareholders, shareholder approval for the Combination has now been received.
Ithaca Energy plc (LSE:ITH) completed the acquisition of substantially all of its upstream assets in the UK from Eni UK Limited on October 3, 2024. As a part of closing, Ithaca Energy is pleased to announce the formal appointment of Luciano Vasques as Chief Executive Officer and the appointment of two new non-executive directors to its board of directors, MrFrancesco Gattei, theChief Transition & Financial Officer, Chief Operating Officer and General Manager of Eni S.p.A. and MrGuido Brusco, theChief Operating Officer Global Natural Resources and General Manager at Eni S.p.A., as nominees of Ithaca Energy's second largest shareholder, Eni UK Limited. Mr. Brusco will also join the Company's Nomination and Governance Committee. Paul Wheeler, Sam Barnett, Philip Clausen-Thue and Will Soutar of Jefferies International Limited acted as financial advisor to Ithaca Energy. New Risk • Sep 27
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.4% per year for the foreseeable future. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If profits are expected to decline, then in most cases the share price will decline over time as well. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 4.4% per year for the foreseeable future. Minor Risks Unstable dividend paying track record with dividend experiencing an annual drop of over 20% in the past. Large one-off items impacting financial results. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 25
Consensus revenue estimates increase by 15% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$1.82b to US$2.09b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.04 to US$0.136 per share. Net income forecast to grow 18% next year vs 41% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target down from UK£1.47 to UK£1.42. Share price rose 2.1% to UK£1.05 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 09
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 16% After last week's 16% share price decline to UK£1.10, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 4x in the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Total loss to shareholders of 16% over the past year. Major Estimate Revision • Aug 29
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 20% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from US$2.10b to US$1.67b. EPS estimate fell from US$0.17 to US$0.04 per share. Net income forecast to grow 2.3% next year vs 38% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target broadly unchanged at UK£1.51. Share price rose 5.7% to UK£1.31 over the past week. Declared Dividend • Aug 25
First half dividend of US$0.099 announced Shareholders will receive a dividend of US$0.099. Ex-date: 5th September 2024 Payment date: 27th September 2024 Dividend yield will be 16%, which is higher than the industry average of 6.7%. Sustainability & Growth Dividend is not covered by earnings (247% earnings payout ratio). However, it is covered by cash flows (58% cash payout ratio). The dividend has increased by an average of 22% per year over the past 2 years and payments have been stable during that time. The company's earnings per share (EPS) would need to grow by 174% to bring the payout ratio under control. EPS is expected to grow by 93% over the next 3 years, which means the dividend may need to be reduced to reach a sustainable payout ratio. Reported Earnings • Aug 23
Second quarter 2024 earnings: EPS exceeds analyst expectations while revenues lag behind Second quarter 2024 results: EPS: US$0.063 (up from US$0.001 in 2Q 2023). Revenue: US$361.6m (down 40% from 2Q 2023). Net income: US$63.0m (up US$61.8m from 2Q 2023). Profit margin: 17% (up from 0.2% in 2Q 2023). Revenue missed analyst estimates by 22%. Earnings per share (EPS) exceeded analyst estimates by 24%. Revenue is forecast to grow 9.6% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, while revenues in the Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom are expected to remain flat. Announcement • Aug 22
Ithaca Energy plc Announces First Interim Dividend for 2024, Payable on 27 September 2024 Ithaca Energy plc announced its first interim dividend for 2024 of $100 million, representing $0.0986 per ordinary share. The first interim dividend will be paid on 27 September 2024 to shareholders on the share register on 6 September 2024. Announcement • Aug 15
Ithaca Energy plc to Report First Half, 2024 Results on Aug 22, 2024 Ithaca Energy plc announced that they will report first half, 2024 results on Aug 22, 2024 Major Estimate Revision • Jul 01
Consensus EPS estimates increase by 13% The consensus outlook for earnings per share (EPS) in fiscal year 2024 has improved. 2024 revenue forecast increased from US$1.98b to US$2.08b. EPS estimate increased from US$0.119 to US$0.135 per share. Net income forecast to grow 65% next year vs 41% growth forecast for Oil and Gas industry in the United Kingdom. Consensus price target of UK£1.55 unchanged from last update. Share price fell 5.9% to UK£1.23 over the past week. Announcement • Jun 28
Ithaca Energy plc Announces Board of Directors Changes Ithaca Energy plc announced the appointment of Yaniv Friedman as Executive Chairman. This appointment follows the announcement on 28 May 2024 of a number of changes to the Company's Board of Directors and Executive Management team, including that of Yaniv Friedman's appointment, to strengthen the Company's executive leadership as it embarks on its next phase of growth, having recently announced its proposed transformational business combination with substantially all of the upstream assets of Eni in the UK. Yaniv Friedman has significant global executive experience working in the energy and infrastructure sectors and brings considerable strategic, commercial, public company and M&A expertise. Yaniv most recently held the role of CEO of Modiin Energy LP, an oil and gas partnership listed on the Tel Aviv Stock Exchange with operations including development projects in the US as well as exploration offshore Israel. Prior to this, Yaniv served as Deputy Chief Executive Officer of Newmed Energy LP, Israel's leading energy partnership in the exploration, development, production and sale of natural gas. Yaniv has also held other senior executive positions in public and private energy companies. Dave Blackwood, CBE having temporarily served as non-executive Chairman will return to his role as a non-executive director. Announcement • May 30
Ithaca Energy plc to Report Q1, 2024 Results on May 28, 2024 Ithaca Energy plc announced that they will report Q1, 2024 results on May 28, 2024 New Risk • May 30
New minor risk - Earnings quality The company has large one-off items impacting its financial results. One-off items were 44% of the size of the rest of the company's trailing 12-month earnings before tax. This is considered a minor risk. One-off items are incomes or expenses that the company does not expect to repeat in future periods. Examples include profits from the sale of a business or expenses from a restructuring or legal settlements. If the company's reported statutory earnings include a large proportion of one-off items it means they may be an unreliable indicator of its true business performance as the earnings were skewed by these incomes or expenses. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks Dividend is not well covered by earnings (267% payout ratio). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Profit margins are more than 30% lower than last year (4.6% net profit margin). 
