Ithaca Energy plc

LSE:ITH Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.7b

Ithaca Energy Valuation

Is ITH undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of ITH when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: ITH (£1.04) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£1.52)

Significantly Below Fair Value: ITH is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for ITH?

Key metric: As ITH is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for ITH. This is calculated by dividing ITH's market cap by their current earnings.
What is ITH's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio19.5x
EarningsUS$111.92m
Market CapUS$2.18b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does ITH's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for ITH vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average20.7x
SEPL Seplat Energy
19.4x13.4%UK£1.2b
HBR Harbour Energy
49x14.4%UK£3.7b
ENOG Energean
8.7x7.0%UK£1.9b
DEC Diversified Energy
5.8x1.1%UK£655.6m
ITH Ithaca Energy
19.5x-4.4%UK£1.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: ITH is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the peer average (20.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does ITH's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROSN Rosneft Oil
1.5xn/aUS$21.03b
INDI Indus Gas
0.9xn/aUS$17.43m
No more companies available in this PE range
ITH 19.5xIndustry Avg. 9.5xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: ITH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (9.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is ITH's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

ITH PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio19.5x
Fair PE Ratio11.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: ITH is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (11.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst ITH forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.04
UK£1.40
+34.6%
14.7%UK£1.76UK£1.20n/a7
Nov ’25UK£0.99
UK£1.42
+43.8%
15.1%UK£1.76UK£1.13n/a7
Oct ’25UK£1.08
UK£1.44
+34.2%
23.3%UK£2.09UK£1.10n/a6
Sep ’25UK£1.29
UK£1.51
+16.7%
20.6%UK£2.14UK£1.12n/a6
Aug ’25UK£1.30
UK£1.55
+19.0%
19.6%UK£2.16UK£1.16n/a6
Jul ’25UK£1.23
UK£1.55
+25.6%
19.6%UK£2.16UK£1.16n/a6
Jun ’25UK£1.34
UK£1.61
+20.1%
16.9%UK£2.15UK£1.40n/a5
May ’25UK£1.18
UK£1.63
+37.8%
16.2%UK£2.13UK£1.41n/a5
Apr ’25UK£1.33
UK£1.81
+35.9%
13.8%UK£2.11UK£1.56n/a5
Mar ’25UK£1.42
UK£1.79
+26.1%
11.5%UK£2.11UK£1.56n/a8
Feb ’25UK£1.36
UK£1.84
+35.4%
12.0%UK£2.10UK£1.55n/a8
Jan ’25UK£1.44
UK£1.90
+31.8%
13.3%UK£2.25UK£1.50n/a8
Dec ’24UK£1.50
UK£1.90
+26.6%
13.7%UK£2.26UK£1.50UK£1.048
Nov ’24UK£1.66
UK£1.91
+14.7%
12.2%UK£2.14UK£1.54UK£0.998
Oct ’24UK£1.84
UK£1.91
+3.7%
10.4%UK£2.10UK£1.58UK£1.088
Sep ’24UK£1.42
UK£1.87
+31.9%
11.4%UK£2.14UK£1.53UK£1.298
Aug ’24UK£1.69
UK£1.90
+12.4%
8.8%UK£2.10UK£1.60UK£1.308
Jul ’24UK£1.51
UK£1.91
+26.4%
13.6%UK£2.43UK£1.60UK£1.237
Jun ’24UK£1.39
UK£2.10
+51.9%
15.7%UK£2.58UK£1.63UK£1.346
May ’24UK£1.60
UK£2.19
+37.4%
15.6%UK£2.60UK£1.70UK£1.186
Apr ’24UK£1.50
UK£2.28
+52.5%
17.6%UK£2.70UK£1.55UK£1.336
Mar ’24UK£1.76
UK£2.32
+31.6%
20.6%UK£2.84UK£1.42UK£1.426
Feb ’24UK£1.82
UK£2.43
+33.7%
11.7%UK£2.80UK£1.93UK£1.365
Jan ’24UK£1.83
UK£2.46
+34.7%
12.4%UK£2.83UK£1.99UK£1.444

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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