Serica Energy plc

AIM:SQZ Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£503.7m

Serica Energy Valuation

Is SQZ undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SQZ when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SQZ (£1.29) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£4.34)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SQZ is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SQZ?

Key metric: As SQZ is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SQZ. This is calculated by dividing SQZ's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SQZ's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio5.5x
EarningsUS$114.14m
Market CapUS$632.08m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SQZ's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SQZ vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average14.6x
DEC Diversified Energy
5.7x2.4%UK£645.8m
TLW Tullow Oil
21.3x16.1%UK£277.1m
SEPL Seplat Energy
18.2x13.4%UK£1.2b
ENQ EnQuest
13x-2.2%UK£215.5m
SQZ Serica Energy
5.5x-18.3%UK£503.7m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SQZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the peer average (14.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SQZ's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROSN Rosneft Oil
1.5xn/aUS$21.03b
No more companies available in this PE range
SQZ 5.5xIndustry Avg. 8.5xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SQZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (8.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SQZ's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SQZ PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio5.5x
Fair PE Ratio8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SQZ is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SQZ forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.29
UK£2.30
+78.4%
18.6%UK£3.02UK£1.71n/a6
Dec ’25UK£1.29
UK£2.43
+89.2%
21.4%UK£2.97UK£1.68n/a4
Nov ’25UK£1.35
UK£2.47
+82.7%
21.2%UK£3.01UK£1.71n/a4
Oct ’25UK£1.35
UK£2.48
+83.2%
19.1%UK£2.95UK£1.70n/a5
Sep ’25UK£1.27
UK£2.71
+113.7%
14.9%UK£3.29UK£2.21n/a5
Aug ’25UK£1.28
UK£2.71
+111.9%
14.9%UK£3.29UK£2.21n/a5
Jul ’25UK£1.35
UK£2.74
+103.9%
14.8%UK£3.34UK£2.25n/a5
Jun ’25UK£1.75
UK£2.90
+65.3%
14.4%UK£3.34UK£2.24n/a4
May ’25UK£1.81
UK£3.03
+68.1%
12.0%UK£3.47UK£2.57n/a3
Apr ’25UK£1.89
UK£3.20
+69.6%
12.9%UK£3.67UK£2.59n/a4
Mar ’25UK£1.77
UK£3.12
+76.0%
11.0%UK£3.69UK£2.77n/a4
Feb ’25UK£2.06
UK£3.30
+60.4%
9.9%UK£3.65UK£2.79n/a4
Jan ’25UK£2.30
UK£3.44
+50.0%
4.8%UK£3.68UK£3.28n/a4
Dec ’24UK£2.26
UK£3.63
+60.8%
11.9%UK£4.31UK£3.26UK£1.294
Nov ’24UK£2.30
UK£3.35
+45.5%
3.8%UK£3.54UK£3.19UK£1.354
Oct ’24UK£2.49
UK£3.38
+36.0%
11.1%UK£3.96UK£2.94UK£1.354
Sep ’24UK£2.52
UK£3.36
+33.4%
9.4%UK£3.83UK£2.92UK£1.275
Aug ’24UK£2.37
UK£3.36
+41.5%
9.6%UK£3.80UK£2.89UK£1.285
Jul ’24UK£2.10
UK£3.42
+62.6%
8.4%UK£3.85UK£3.13UK£1.354
Jun ’24UK£2.17
UK£3.74
+72.1%
8.7%UK£4.11UK£3.24UK£1.754
May ’24UK£2.38
UK£3.74
+57.2%
8.7%UK£4.11UK£3.24UK£1.814
Apr ’24UK£2.22
UK£3.95
+78.4%
8.0%UK£4.36UK£3.59UK£1.893
Mar ’24UK£2.55
UK£3.95
+54.9%
8.0%UK£4.36UK£3.59UK£1.773
Feb ’24UK£2.53
UK£4.07
+60.7%
8.0%UK£4.37UK£3.62UK£2.063
Jan ’24UK£2.85
UK£3.76
+31.9%
10.6%UK£4.30UK£3.35UK£2.303
Dec ’23UK£3.21
UK£4.02
+25.3%
7.6%UK£4.48UK£3.67UK£2.264

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/25 20:46
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/24 00:00
Earnings2024/06/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Serica Energy plc is covered by 15 analysts. 5 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Stephane Guy FoucaudAuctus Advisors LLP
Philip HallamCanaccord Genuity
Ashley KeltyCantor Fitzgerald Europe