Tullow Oil plc

LSE:TLW Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£323.5m

Tullow Oil Valuation

Is TLW undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

2/6

Valuation Score 2/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TLW when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TLW (£0.23) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£1.62)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TLW is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TLW?

Key metric: As TLW is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TLW. This is calculated by dividing TLW's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TLW's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio26.1x
EarningsUS$16.30m
Market CapUS$407.81m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TLW's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TLW vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average11.1x
ENQ EnQuest
13.8x-3.6%UK£227.1m
SQZ Serica Energy
5.6x-15.0%UK£510.7m
DEC Diversified Energy
5.4x1.1%UK£611.4m
SEPL Seplat Energy
19.6x13.4%UK£1.3b
TLW Tullow Oil
26.1x18.8%UK£337.5m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TLW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.1x) compared to the peer average (11.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TLW's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROSN Rosneft Oil
1.5xn/aUS$21.03b
INDI Indus Gas
1xn/aUS$20.07m
No more companies available in this PE range
TLW 26.1xIndustry Avg. 8.4xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TLW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.1x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (8.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TLW's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TLW PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio26.1x
Fair PE Ratio14x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TLW is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (14.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TLW forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£0.23
UK£0.56
+141.6%
39.5%UK£1.01UK£0.21n/a10
Nov ’25UK£0.24
UK£0.55
+132.3%
39.4%UK£0.98UK£0.21n/a10
Oct ’25UK£0.22
UK£0.54
+147.0%
38.3%UK£0.96UK£0.20n/a10
Sep ’25UK£0.27
UK£0.56
+108.2%
36.2%UK£0.97UK£0.24n/a10
Aug ’25UK£0.30
UK£0.58
+94.1%
34.9%UK£0.99UK£0.25n/a10
Jul ’25UK£0.32
UK£0.59
+84.1%
33.6%UK£1.00UK£0.30n/a10
Jun ’25UK£0.39
UK£0.58
+48.3%
34.2%UK£0.99UK£0.30n/a10
May ’25UK£0.37
UK£0.59
+58.3%
35.9%UK£1.02UK£0.28n/a10
Apr ’25UK£0.31
UK£0.57
+82.5%
36.3%UK£1.01UK£0.27n/a10
Mar ’25UK£0.29
UK£0.56
+95.5%
39.5%UK£1.01UK£0.27n/a9
Feb ’25UK£0.31
UK£0.54
+76.2%
40.3%UK£1.00UK£0.27n/a10
Jan ’25UK£0.39
UK£0.55
+41.4%
36.5%UK£1.00UK£0.34n/a10
Dec ’24UK£0.36
UK£0.55
+53.3%
36.4%UK£1.00UK£0.34n/a10
Nov ’24UK£0.34
UK£0.57
+66.6%
36.2%UK£1.03UK£0.35UK£0.2410
Oct ’24UK£0.34
UK£0.56
+63.4%
45.0%UK£1.01UK£0.25UK£0.229
Sep ’24UK£0.37
UK£0.56
+49.3%
44.1%UK£1.02UK£0.25UK£0.279
Aug ’24UK£0.34
UK£0.55
+59.5%
43.4%UK£0.99UK£0.25UK£0.309
Jul ’24UK£0.28
UK£0.54
+92.7%
44.2%UK£0.99UK£0.24UK£0.329
Jun ’24UK£0.24
UK£0.56
+129.0%
44.7%UK£1.00UK£0.25UK£0.399
May ’24UK£0.28
UK£0.54
+93.8%
40.1%UK£0.87UK£0.25UK£0.3710
Apr ’24UK£0.32
UK£0.57
+81.6%
34.8%UK£0.89UK£0.34UK£0.3110
Mar ’24UK£0.34
UK£0.62
+80.6%
30.2%UK£0.90UK£0.35UK£0.2911
Feb ’24UK£0.35
UK£0.63
+80.9%
37.8%UK£1.20UK£0.35UK£0.3111
Jan ’24UK£0.37
UK£0.74
+101.2%
24.1%UK£1.20UK£0.48UK£0.3911
Dec ’23UK£0.44
UK£0.74
+69.6%
24.1%UK£1.20UK£0.48UK£0.3611
Nov ’23UK£0.45
UK£0.77
+73.0%
19.3%UK£1.17UK£0.60UK£0.3411

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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