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Gulf Keystone Petroleum

Market Cap

UK£367.0m

Last Updated

2021/04/22 10:17 UTC

Data Sources

Company Financials +

Executive Summary

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and production of oil and gas properties in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the United Kingdom. More Details

Rewards

Trading at 78.4% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 70.79% per year

Risk Analysis

No risks detected for GKP from our risk checks.


Snowflake Analysis

Exceptional growth potential with adequate balance sheet.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Gulf Keystone Petroleum's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: GKP is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: GKP's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

-3.2%

GKP

-4.5%

GB Oil and Gas

-0.8%

GB Market


1 Year Return

117.8%

GKP

24.5%

GB Oil and Gas

26.5%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: GKP exceeded the UK Oil and Gas industry which returned 23.5% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GKP exceeded the UK Market which returned 26.4% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

GKPIndustryMarket
7 Day-3.2%-4.5%-0.8%
30 Day2.9%-4.7%3.2%
90 Day26.0%1.9%3.8%
1 Year117.8%117.8%31.2%24.5%32.2%26.5%
3 Year10.5%2.4%-2.0%-15.8%13.6%0.2%
5 Year-63.4%-66.1%36.0%7.1%42.9%15.7%

Long-Term Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Gulf Keystone Petroleum's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Gulf Keystone Petroleum undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

>50%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: GKP (£1.75) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£8.07)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GKP is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: GKP is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the GB Oil and Gas industry average.

PE vs Market: GKP is unprofitable, so we can't compare its PE Ratio to the UK market.


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate GKP's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: GKP's PB Ratio (1.1x) is in line with the GB Oil and Gas industry average.


Future Growth

How is Gulf Keystone Petroleum forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 6 analysts?

70.8%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: GKP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered faster growth than the savings rate (1%).

Earnings vs Market: GKP is forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years, which is considered above average market growth.

High Growth Earnings: GKP's is expected to become profitable in the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: GKP's revenue (33.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (6.2% per year).

High Growth Revenue: GKP's revenue (33.6% per year) is forecast to grow faster than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: GKP's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (21.3%)


Past Performance

How has Gulf Keystone Petroleum performed over the past 5 years?

41.4%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: GKP is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: GKP is currently unprofitable.


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: GKP is unprofitable, but has reduced losses over the past 5 years at a rate of 41.4% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare GKP's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: GKP is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Oil and Gas industry (-47.4%).


Return on Equity

High ROE: GKP has a negative Return on Equity (-10.43%), as it is currently unprofitable.


Financial Health

How is Gulf Keystone Petroleum's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: GKP's short term assets ($223.2M) exceed its short term liabilities ($69.1M).

Long Term Liabilities: GKP's short term assets ($223.2M) exceed its long term liabilities ($135.4M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: GKP's debt to equity ratio (21.7%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: GKP's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 326.1% to 21.7% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if GKP has enough cash runway based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if GKP has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.


Dividend

What is Gulf Keystone Petroleum current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

3.45%

Forecast Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate GKP's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate GKP's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GKP's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if GKP's dividend payments have been increasing.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: GKP is not paying a notable dividend for the UK market.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: No need to calculate the sustainability of GKP's dividend in 3 years as they are not forecast to pay a notable one for the UK market.


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

2.3yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Jon Harris (54 yo)

0.25

Tenure

Mr. Jon R. Harris, MEng (Fuels and Energy Engineering), has been Chief Executive Officer and Director of Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited since January 18, 2021. He had been Executive Vice President of Upst...


Leadership Team

Experienced Management: GKP's management team is considered experienced (2.3 years average tenure).


Board Members

Experienced Board: GKP's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.8 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: GKP insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited
  • Ticker: GKP
  • Exchange: LSE
  • Founded: 2001
  • Industry: Oil and Gas Exploration and Production
  • Sector: Energy
  • Market Cap: UK£366.958m
  • Shares outstanding: 210.17m
  • Website: https://www.gulfkeystone.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited
  • Cedar House
  • 3rd Floor
  • Hamilton
  • HM 12
  • Bermuda

Listings


Biography

Gulf Keystone Petroleum Limited engages in the exploration, evaluation, and production of oil and gas properties in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq and the United Kingdom. The company operates Shaikan field t...


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2021/04/22 10:17
End of Day Share Price2021/04/21 00:00
Earnings2020/12/31
Annual Earnings2020/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.