BP p.l.c.

LSE:BP. Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£60.0b

BP Valuation

Is BP. undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of BP. when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: BP. (£3.83) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£7.59)

Significantly Below Fair Value: BP. is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for BP.?

Key metric: As BP. is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for BP.. This is calculated by dividing BP.'s market cap by their current earnings.
What is BP.'s PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28x
EarningsUS$2.72b
Market CapUS$76.13b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does BP.'s PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for BP. vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.5x
SHEL Shell
12.2x4.9%UK£150.3b
GAZP Gazprom
2.2xn/a₽4.7t
PETR4 Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras
5.7x14.6%R$516.0b
386 China Petroleum & Chemical
9.9x9.4%HK$778.8b
BP. BP
28x29.4%UK£60.0b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: BP. is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28x) compared to the peer average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does BP.'s PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROSN Rosneft Oil
1.5xn/aUS$21.03b
INDI Indus Gas
1xn/aUS$19.97m
No more companies available in this PE range
BP. 28.0xIndustry Avg. 9.3xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: BP. is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (9.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is BP.'s PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

BP. PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28x
Fair PE Ratio27.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: BP. is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst BP. forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£3.83
UK£4.90
+27.7%
12.9%UK£6.55UK£4.03n/a18
Dec ’25UK£3.85
UK£4.98
+29.6%
12.2%UK£6.63UK£4.17n/a18
Nov ’25UK£3.78
UK£4.98
+31.6%
11.9%UK£6.54UK£4.18n/a18
Oct ’25UK£4.01
UK£5.22
+30.2%
11.1%UK£6.79UK£4.48n/a18
Sep ’25UK£4.29
UK£5.52
+28.6%
11.3%UK£7.33UK£4.75n/a17
Aug ’25UK£4.54
UK£5.80
+27.7%
10.0%UK£7.49UK£4.99n/a17
Jul ’25UK£4.79
UK£6.11
+27.6%
17.4%UK£9.92UK£4.94n/a17
Jun ’25UK£4.88
UK£6.01
+23.2%
17.5%UK£9.83UK£4.89n/a17
May ’25UK£5.09
UK£6.13
+20.4%
17.9%UK£10.14UK£4.94n/a17
Apr ’25UK£4.96
UK£6.10
+23.1%
17.3%UK£10.03UK£5.03n/a17
Mar ’25UK£4.72
UK£6.00
+27.3%
17.8%UK£9.93UK£4.98n/a17
Feb ’25UK£4.66
UK£6.07
+30.4%
17.9%UK£9.96UK£5.00n/a18
Jan ’25UK£4.66
UK£6.07
+30.3%
18.5%UK£9.51UK£4.93n/a18
Dec ’24UK£4.78
UK£6.06
+26.7%
18.7%UK£9.54UK£5.03UK£3.8518
Nov ’24UK£4.94
UK£6.19
+25.2%
19.1%UK£9.98UK£4.92UK£3.7818
Oct ’24UK£5.31
UK£6.19
+16.5%
18.7%UK£10.44UK£5.02UK£4.0118
Sep ’24UK£5.01
UK£6.03
+20.4%
18.7%UK£10.12UK£4.94UK£4.2918
Aug ’24UK£4.82
UK£5.95
+23.6%
17.9%UK£9.97UK£4.94UK£4.5419
Jul ’24UK£4.58
UK£6.07
+32.4%
16.6%UK£9.81UK£5.21UK£4.7919
Jun ’24UK£4.62
UK£6.12
+32.6%
16.1%UK£9.94UK£5.28UK£4.8821
May ’24UK£5.34
UK£6.17
+15.5%
16.0%UK£9.98UK£5.38UK£5.0921
Apr ’24UK£5.11
UK£6.11
+19.6%
16.2%UK£9.78UK£5.24UK£4.9621
Mar ’24UK£5.50
UK£6.19
+12.5%
16.8%UK£10.03UK£5.19UK£4.7221
Feb ’24UK£4.92
UK£5.59
+13.6%
10.5%UK£6.81UK£4.90UK£4.6622
Jan ’24UK£4.75
UK£5.60
+18.0%
9.9%UK£6.83UK£4.88UK£4.6622
Dec ’23UK£4.89
UK£5.41
+10.6%
10.2%UK£6.72UK£4.58UK£4.7822

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 08:43
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

BP p.l.c. is covered by 81 analysts. 22 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Alexandre AndlauerAlphaValue
William SeleskyArgus Research Company
John EadeArgus Research Company