Shell plc

LSE:SHEL Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£150.0b

Shell Valuation

Is SHEL undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of SHEL when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: SHEL (£24.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£28.96)

Significantly Below Fair Value: SHEL is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for SHEL?

Key metric: As SHEL is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for SHEL. This is calculated by dividing SHEL's market cap by their current earnings.
What is SHEL's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio12.2x
EarningsUS$15.64b
Market CapUS$190.59b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does SHEL's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for SHEL vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average13.2x
XOM Exxon Mobil
14.1x4.9%US$476.7b
CVX Chevron
16x7.0%US$268.4b
2222 Saudi Arabian Oil
16.8x0.8%ر.س6.9t
PETR4 Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras
5.8x14.6%R$509.3b
SHEL Shell
12.2x4.9%UK£150.3b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: SHEL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the peer average (13.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does SHEL's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROSN Rosneft Oil
1.5xn/aUS$21.03b
INDI Indus Gas
1xn/aUS$19.97m
No more companies available in this PE range
SHEL 12.2xIndustry Avg. 9.4xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: SHEL is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (9.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is SHEL's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

SHEL PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio12.2x
Fair PE Ratio20.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: SHEL is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (12.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst SHEL forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£24.19
UK£32.01
+32.3%
8.3%UK£36.53UK£26.15n/a16
Dec ’25UK£25.32
UK£31.96
+26.3%
8.4%UK£36.55UK£26.16n/a16
Nov ’25UK£25.79
UK£31.72
+23.0%
7.5%UK£35.86UK£27.94n/a16
Oct ’25UK£24.78
UK£31.62
+27.6%
8.9%UK£38.20UK£27.17n/a16
Sep ’25UK£26.81
UK£32.19
+20.1%
8.4%UK£38.80UK£27.74n/a15
Aug ’25UK£28.25
UK£33.10
+17.2%
8.5%UK£40.09UK£28.57n/a15
Jul ’25UK£28.58
UK£32.54
+13.9%
7.7%UK£37.55UK£28.79n/a15
Jun ’25UK£28.12
UK£32.01
+13.8%
8.1%UK£37.20UK£28.52n/a15
May ’25UK£28.19
UK£31.37
+11.3%
8.9%UK£38.38UK£27.34n/a15
Apr ’25UK£26.25
UK£30.56
+16.4%
9.7%UK£38.48UK£25.94n/a15
Mar ’25UK£24.95
UK£30.08
+20.6%
10.4%UK£38.14UK£25.71n/a15
Feb ’25UK£25.06
UK£30.24
+20.7%
10.0%UK£37.88UK£25.76n/a15
Jan ’25UK£25.72
UK£30.09
+17.0%
10.5%UK£37.07UK£24.62n/a15
Dec ’24UK£25.68
UK£29.82
+16.1%
10.0%UK£37.06UK£24.61UK£25.3215
Nov ’24UK£26.57
UK£30.07
+13.2%
10.7%UK£38.28UK£25.27UK£25.7915
Oct ’24UK£26.06
UK£29.98
+15.0%
9.2%UK£36.78UK£25.35UK£24.7816
Sep ’24UK£24.45
UK£28.89
+18.2%
9.3%UK£35.54UK£24.49UK£26.8116
Aug ’24UK£23.52
UK£28.58
+21.5%
10.5%UK£35.07UK£23.77UK£28.2518
Jul ’24UK£23.43
UK£28.86
+23.2%
9.5%UK£35.41UK£24.19UK£28.5819
Jun ’24UK£22.48
UK£29.07
+29.3%
9.3%UK£33.66UK£23.28UK£28.1220
May ’24UK£24.52
UK£28.72
+17.1%
8.4%UK£32.92UK£24.01UK£28.1921
Apr ’24UK£23.09
UK£28.72
+24.4%
9.9%UK£34.60UK£22.89UK£26.2521
Mar ’24UK£25.64
UK£29.53
+15.2%
10.0%UK£36.00UK£23.50UK£24.9520
Feb ’24UK£23.67
UK£28.78
+21.6%
10.2%UK£34.92UK£22.79UK£25.0621
Jan ’24UK£23.26
UK£29.41
+26.4%
9.7%UK£36.09UK£23.44UK£25.7220
Dec ’23UK£23.82
UK£28.32
+18.9%
8.6%UK£32.78UK£23.07UK£25.6820

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/18 18:43
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/18 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2023/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Shell plc is covered by 78 analysts. 21 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Thijs BerkelderABN AMRO Bank N.V.
Alejandro AcostaAlezor Research
Alexandre AndlauerAlphaValue