Saudi Arabian Oil Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of 2222 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

2222 (SAR27.65) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (SAR19.94)

Is 2222 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 2222 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 2222 (SAR27.65) is trading above our estimate of fair value (SAR19.94)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 2222 is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 2222?

Key metric: As 2222 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 2222. This is calculated by dividing 2222's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 2222's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	16.3x
Earnings	ر.س410.00b
Market Cap	ر.س6.77t

2222 key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	3.8x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	8x
PEG Ratio	12.7x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 2222's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 2222 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	12.9x
XOM Exxon Mobil	15.6x	4.9%	US$524.4b
CVX Chevron	17.4x	7.1%	US$290.1b
SHEL Shell	12.8x	5.5%	UK£159.2b
857 PetroChina	5.7x	-3.8%	HK$1.5t
2222 Saudi Arabian Oil	16.3x	1.3%	ر.س6.8t

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 2222 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the peer average (12.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 2222's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Asian Oil and Gas Industry?

7 Companies	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap

7 Companies		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 2222 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the Asian Oil and Gas industry average (10.3x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 2222's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

2222 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	16.3x
Fair PE Ratio	27.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 2222 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (16.3x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (27.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 2222 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	ر.س27.65	ر.س31.93 +15.5%	8.0%	ر.س37.00	ر.س28.00	n/a	19
Nov ’25	ر.س27.00	ر.س32.20 +19.2%	7.4%	ر.س37.00	ر.س28.02	n/a	18
Oct ’25	ر.س27.20	ر.س32.59 +19.8%	6.7%	ر.س37.00	ر.س29.40	n/a	17
Sep ’25	ر.س27.85	ر.س32.97 +18.4%	7.7%	ر.س37.50	ر.س29.40	n/a	16
Aug ’25	ر.س27.50	ر.س33.35 +21.3%	7.5%	ر.س37.50	ر.س30.00	n/a	15
Jul ’25	ر.س28.00	ر.س33.69 +20.3%	6.9%	ر.س37.50	ر.س30.00	n/a	15
Jun ’25	ر.س29.00	ر.س33.06 +14.0%	5.8%	ر.س37.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	13
May ’25	ر.س30.05	ر.س33.59 +11.8%	6.9%	ر.س38.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	15
Apr ’25	ر.س30.75	ر.س33.76 +9.8%	6.5%	ر.س38.00	ر.س31.00	n/a	15
Mar ’25	ر.س31.70	ر.س33.79 +6.6%	6.4%	ر.س38.00	ر.س31.00	n/a	14
Feb ’25	ر.س31.00	ر.س33.86 +9.2%	6.5%	ر.س38.00	ر.س31.00	n/a	14
Jan ’25	ر.س33.05	ر.س34.32 +3.9%	7.2%	ر.س38.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	14
Dec ’24	ر.س33.20	ر.س34.29 +3.3%	7.4%	ر.س38.00	ر.س30.00	n/a	14
Nov ’24	ر.س33.15	ر.س34.44 +3.9%	8.4%	ر.س39.50	ر.س30.00	ر.س27.00	14
Oct ’24	ر.س34.70	ر.س34.30 -1.2%	8.0%	ر.س39.50	ر.س30.00	ر.س27.20	14
Sep ’24	ر.س34.90	ر.س34.18 -2.1%	7.9%	ر.س39.50	ر.س30.00	ر.س27.85	15
Aug ’24	ر.س32.25	ر.س33.87 +5.0%	7.0%	ر.س39.50	ر.س30.00	ر.س27.50	16
Jul ’24	n/a	ر.س34.51 0%	6.7%	ر.س39.50	ر.س30.00	ر.س28.00	16
Jun ’24	ر.س31.65	ر.س34.60 +9.3%	6.9%	ر.س39.50	ر.س30.00	ر.س29.00	15
May ’24	ر.س32.77	ر.س33.66 +2.7%	8.7%	ر.س40.00	ر.س27.27	ر.س30.05	16
Apr ’24	ر.س29.36	ر.س34.29 +16.8%	9.7%	ر.س41.82	ر.س27.27	ر.س30.75	17
Mar ’24	ر.س28.68	ر.س35.23 +22.8%	9.4%	ر.س41.82	ر.س27.27	ر.س31.70	17
Feb ’24	ر.س29.91	ر.س35.61 +19.0%	10.0%	ر.س41.82	ر.س27.27	ر.س31.00	17
Jan ’24	ر.س29.45	ر.س36.06 +22.4%	11.0%	ر.س45.45	ر.س27.27	ر.س33.05	17
Dec ’23	ر.س30.09	ر.س36.38 +20.9%	11.6%	ر.س45.45	ر.س27.27	ر.س33.20	17
Nov ’23	ر.س31.68	ر.س36.56 +15.4%	11.5%	ر.س45.45	ر.س27.27	ر.س33.15	17

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.