Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras Valuation
Is PETR4 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?
Valuation Score
5/6Valuation Score 5/6
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast
Share Price vs Fair Value
What is the Fair Price of PETR4 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.
Below Fair Value: PETR4 (R$38.2) is trading below our estimate of fair value (R$67.76)
Significantly Below Fair Value: PETR4 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.
Key Valuation Metric
Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for PETR4?
Key metric: As PETR4 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.
| What is PETR4's PE Ratio? | |
|---|---|
| PE Ratio | 5.7x |
| Earnings | R$84.69b |
| Market Cap | R$504.48b |
| Key Statistics | |
|---|---|
| Enterprise Value/Revenue | 1.5x |
| Enterprise Value/EBITDA | 3.4x |
| PEG Ratio | 0.4x |
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers
How does PETR4's PE Ratio compare to its peers?
| Company | Forward PE | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peer Average | 11.7x | ||
GAZP Gazprom | 2.2x | n/a | ₽4.7t |
386 China Petroleum & Chemical | 9.6x | 9.5% | HK$769.4b |
EQNR Equinor | 6.9x | -7.8% | NOK 717.8b |
BP. BP | 28.2x | 28.5% | UK£60.1b |
PETR4 Petróleo Brasileiro - Petrobras | 5.8x | 12.9% | R$504.5b |
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: PETR4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the peer average (14.9x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry
How does PETR4's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the Global Oil and Gas Industry?
| 27 Companies | Price / Earnings | Estimated Growth | Market Cap |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Companies | Estimated Growth | Market Cap | |
|---|---|---|---|
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: PETR4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the Global Oil and Gas industry average (10.4x).
Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio
What is PETR4's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.
| Fair Ratio | |
|---|---|
| Current PE Ratio | 5.7x |
| Fair PE Ratio | 9.5x |
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: PETR4 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (5.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.5x).
Analyst Price Targets
What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?
| Date | Share Price | Average 1Y Price Target | Dispersion | High | Low | 1Y Actual price | Analysts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current | R$38.20 | R$45.20 +18.3% | 9.7% | R$51.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 11 |
| Nov ’25 | R$35.42 | R$44.71 +26.2% | 10.1% | R$51.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 11 |
| Oct ’25 | R$36.97 | R$45.12 +22.0% | 9.8% | R$51.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 11 |
| Sep ’25 | R$39.37 | R$44.39 +12.8% | 9.4% | R$51.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 11 |
| Aug ’25 | R$36.84 | R$43.76 +18.8% | 11.2% | R$50.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Jul ’25 | R$38.63 | R$43.09 +11.5% | 10.6% | R$49.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Jun ’25 | R$38.79 | R$42.09 +8.5% | 9.2% | R$47.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 10 |
| May ’25 | R$42.02 | R$42.54 +1.2% | 9.2% | R$47.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Apr ’25 | R$37.65 | R$40.71 +8.1% | 8.2% | R$45.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Mar ’25 | R$40.18 | R$42.14 +4.9% | 11.4% | R$48.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Feb ’25 | R$41.57 | R$39.85 -4.1% | 9.8% | R$48.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Jan ’25 | R$37.24 | R$39.55 +6.2% | 8.5% | R$45.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Dec ’24 | R$35.67 | R$39.68 +11.2% | 8.7% | R$45.00 | R$34.00 | n/a | 10 |
| Nov ’24 | R$35.12 | R$40.07 +14.1% | 8.8% | R$45.20 | R$34.00 | R$35.42 | 10 |
| Oct ’24 | R$34.64 | R$35.77 +3.3% | 16.3% | R$45.00 | R$26.00 | R$36.97 | 11 |
| Sep ’24 | R$32.63 | R$35.77 +9.6% | 16.3% | R$45.00 | R$26.00 | R$39.37 | 11 |
| Aug ’24 | R$30.60 | R$33.43 +9.3% | 13.8% | R$41.90 | R$26.00 | R$36.84 | 9 |
| Jul ’24 | R$29.53 | R$33.22 +12.5% | 15.9% | R$41.00 | R$26.00 | R$38.63 | 9 |
| Jun ’24 | R$26.96 | R$30.87 +14.5% | 17.4% | R$43.00 | R$22.00 | R$38.79 | 11 |
| May ’24 | R$23.70 | R$30.38 +28.2% | 18.5% | R$43.00 | R$20.00 | R$42.02 | 12 |
| Apr ’24 | R$23.45 | R$30.83 +31.5% | 18.4% | R$43.00 | R$20.00 | R$37.65 | 12 |
| Mar ’24 | R$25.30 | R$32.32 +27.7% | 17.9% | R$43.00 | R$22.00 | R$40.18 | 12 |
| Feb ’24 | R$25.71 | R$32.82 +27.6% | 19.0% | R$43.00 | R$22.00 | R$41.57 | 12 |
| Jan ’24 | R$24.50 | R$34.26 +39.9% | 19.8% | R$46.50 | R$22.00 | R$37.24 | 11 |
| Dec ’23 | R$25.59 | R$37.24 +45.5% | 19.8% | R$53.00 | R$22.00 | R$35.67 | 12 |
| Nov ’23 | R$29.86 | R$40.87 +36.9% | 13.1% | R$53.00 | R$34.00 | R$35.12 | 12 |
Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.
Discover undervalued companies
APA
US$8.3b
An independent energy company, explores for, develops, and produces natural gas, crude oil, and natural gas liquids.
A1PA34
US$130.50
7D
2.6%
1Y
n/a
Petroreconcavo
R$4.9b
Engages in the exploration and production of oil and natural gas in Brazil.
RECV3
R$16.75
7D
-9.3%
1Y
-15.9%
Devon Energy
US$25.3b
An independent energy company, engages in the exploration, development, and production of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids in the United States.
D1VN34
US$226.78
7D
1.2%
1Y
1.8%