China Petroleum & Chemical Corporation

SEHK:386 Stock Report

Market Cap: HK$769.4b

China Petroleum & Chemical Valuation

Is 386 undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 386 when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: 386 (HK$4.19) is trading below our estimate of fair value (HK$17.61)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 386 is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 386?

Key metric: As 386 is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 386. This is calculated by dividing 386's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 386's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio9.6x
EarningsCN¥49.36b
Market CapCN¥714.41b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 386's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 386 vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average7.2x
857 PetroChina
5.9x-3.8%HK$1.5t
1088 China Shenhua Energy
10.7x-0.7%HK$851.0b
883 CNOOC
5.3x-1.7%HK$843.1b
1898 China Coal Energy
7x1.9%HK$168.3b
386 China Petroleum & Chemical
9.6x9.5%HK$769.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 386 is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the peer average (7.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 386's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the HK Oil and Gas Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
276 Mongolia Energy
0.08xn/aUS$16.19m
663 King Stone Energy Group
1.3xn/aUS$15.51m
No more companies available in this PE range
386 9.6xIndustry Avg. 9.6xNo. of Companies4PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 386 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the Hong Kong Oil and Gas industry average (9.6x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 386's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

386 PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio9.6x
Fair PE Ratio10.8x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 386 is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (9.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.8x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 386 forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentHK$4.19
HK$5.42
+29.4%
10.0%HK$6.14HK$4.42n/a17
Nov ’25HK$4.41
HK$5.51
+24.9%
9.2%HK$6.23HK$4.60n/a17
Oct ’25HK$4.84
HK$5.61
+15.9%
11.7%HK$6.89HK$4.53n/a16
Sep ’25HK$5.30
HK$5.62
+6.0%
12.0%HK$6.84HK$4.60n/a15
Aug ’25HK$4.96
HK$5.47
+10.3%
11.5%HK$6.76HK$4.57n/a15
Jul ’25HK$5.06
HK$5.42
+7.1%
11.8%HK$6.77HK$4.58n/a15
Jun ’25HK$4.96
HK$5.39
+8.6%
12.3%HK$6.81HK$4.44n/a15
May ’25HK$4.72
HK$5.36
+13.6%
13.5%HK$6.82HK$4.20n/a13
Apr ’25HK$4.44
HK$5.21
+17.4%
11.9%HK$6.38HK$4.20n/a13
Mar ’25HK$4.33
HK$5.17
+19.4%
11.7%HK$6.41HK$4.09n/a13
Feb ’25HK$4.06
HK$5.23
+28.9%
11.3%HK$6.41HK$4.09n/a14
Jan ’25HK$4.09
HK$5.33
+30.3%
11.0%HK$6.47HK$4.33n/a14
Dec ’24HK$4.01
HK$5.51
+37.4%
11.4%HK$6.66HK$4.32n/a14
Nov ’24HK$4.02
HK$5.41
+34.6%
11.1%HK$6.50HK$4.24HK$4.4114
Oct ’24HK$4.28
HK$5.45
+27.5%
10.4%HK$6.70HK$4.33HK$4.8415
Sep ’24HK$4.59
HK$5.45
+18.8%
10.5%HK$6.55HK$4.06HK$5.3016
Aug ’24HK$4.35
HK$5.54
+27.3%
11.7%HK$6.64HK$3.98HK$4.9616
Jul ’24HK$4.59
HK$5.47
+19.2%
12.0%HK$6.60HK$3.95HK$5.0616
Jun ’24HK$4.95
HK$5.46
+10.3%
13.9%HK$6.75HK$3.93HK$4.9616
May ’24HK$5.13
HK$5.41
+5.5%
13.8%HK$6.91HK$4.03HK$4.7216
Apr ’24HK$4.64
HK$4.75
+2.5%
12.6%HK$5.50HK$3.41HK$4.4415
Mar ’24HK$4.11
HK$4.52
+10.0%
14.4%HK$5.48HK$2.94HK$4.3316
Feb ’24HK$4.29
HK$4.61
+7.5%
15.4%HK$5.62HK$3.02HK$4.0616
Jan ’24HK$3.77
HK$4.35
+15.5%
15.6%HK$5.43HK$2.74HK$4.0916
Dec ’23HK$3.60
HK$4.25
+17.9%
15.7%HK$5.27HK$2.67HK$4.0116
Nov ’23HK$3.19
HK$4.30
+34.9%
12.2%HK$5.21HK$3.20HK$4.0217

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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An energy and chemical company, engages in the oil and gas and chemical operations in Mainland China, Singapore, and internationally.

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HK$4.19

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