Marathon Petroleum Corporation

LSE:0JYA Stock Report

Market Cap: US$47.4b

Marathon Petroleum Valuation

Is 0JYA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of 0JYA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
US$365.11
Fair Value
58.6% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: 0JYA ($151.15) is trading below our estimate of fair value ($365.11)

Significantly Below Fair Value: 0JYA is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for 0JYA?

Key metric: As 0JYA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for 0JYA. This is calculated by dividing 0JYA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is 0JYA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio13.8x
EarningsUS$3.45b
Market CapUS$47.44b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does 0JYA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for 0JYA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average29.2x
BP. BP
30.9x23.6%UK£67.9b
SHEL Shell
12.5x7.4%UK£161.7b
HBR Harbour Energy
49.8x-0.4%UK£3.9b
PSX Phillips 66
23.5x20.6%US$49.9b
0JYA Marathon Petroleum
13.8x6.7%US$47.4b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: 0JYA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the peer average (29.2x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does 0JYA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Oil and Gas Industry?

2 CompaniesPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
ROSN Rosneft Oil
1.5xn/aUS$21.03b
ANGS Angus Energy
1.5xn/aUS$15.07m
No more companies available in this PE range
0JYA 13.8xIndustry Avg. 9.9xNo. of Companies5PE0612182430+
2 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: 0JYA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the UK Oil and Gas industry average (9.9x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is 0JYA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

0JYA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio13.8x
Fair PE Ratio17.9x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: 0JYA is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (13.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (17.9x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst 0JYA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUS$151.15
US$167.47
+10.8%
8.0%US$192.00US$141.00n/a19
Feb ’26US$148.71
US$166.37
+11.9%
8.3%US$192.00US$141.00n/a19
Jan ’26US$138.60
US$168.84
+21.8%
8.6%US$190.00US$141.00n/a19
Dec ’25US$156.15
US$170.01
+8.9%
9.1%US$195.00US$142.00n/a19
Nov ’25US$143.31
US$172.80
+20.6%
10.1%US$200.00US$142.00n/a19
Oct ’25US$164.97
US$177.28
+7.5%
11.0%US$200.00US$142.00n/a18
Sep ’25US$176.18
US$191.34
+8.6%
9.1%US$216.05US$142.00n/a18
Aug ’25US$172.23
US$192.39
+11.7%
10.8%US$232.00US$142.00n/a18
Jul ’25US$174.86
US$202.89
+16.0%
12.0%US$244.00US$142.00n/a17
Jun ’25US$177.26
US$207.84
+17.2%
10.3%US$244.00US$142.00n/a18
May ’25US$177.46
US$213.53
+20.3%
11.2%US$249.00US$142.00n/a17
Apr ’25US$201.26
US$186.94
-7.1%
12.4%US$227.00US$142.00n/a17
Mar ’25US$171.65
US$171.83
+0.1%
7.2%US$195.00US$142.00n/a18
Feb ’25US$165.40
US$169.06
+2.2%
9.3%US$186.00US$118.00US$148.7118
Jan ’25US$148.53
US$163.29
+9.9%
10.0%US$191.00US$118.00US$138.6017
Dec ’24US$152.21
US$161.47
+6.1%
9.9%US$191.00US$118.00US$156.1517
Nov ’24US$156.29
US$160.82
+2.9%
8.9%US$191.00US$126.00US$143.3117
Oct ’24US$150.31
US$158.71
+5.6%
8.6%US$179.00US$126.00US$164.9717
Sep ’24US$146.31
US$153.24
+4.7%
7.4%US$167.00US$126.00US$176.1817
Aug ’24US$134.62
US$144.28
+7.2%
8.7%US$165.00US$110.00US$172.2318
Jul ’24US$117.22
US$141.83
+21.0%
9.7%US$165.00US$110.00US$174.8618
Jun ’24US$106.84
US$142.94
+33.8%
10.2%US$165.00US$110.00US$177.2618
May ’24US$122.64
US$149.72
+22.1%
6.8%US$165.00US$123.00US$177.4618
Apr ’24US$134.77
US$150.33
+11.5%
7.6%US$165.00US$123.00US$201.2618
Mar ’24US$128.06
US$139.88
+9.2%
8.4%US$165.00US$115.00US$171.6517
Feb ’24US$122.72
US$139.88
+14.0%
8.4%US$165.00US$115.00US$165.4017
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 19 Analysts
US$168.62
Fair Value
10.4% undervalued intrinsic discount
19
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/08 15:34
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/07 00:00
Earnings2024/12/31
Annual Earnings2024/12/31

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Marathon Petroleum Corporation is covered by 35 analysts. 14 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Yim ChengBarclays
Theresa ChenBarclays
Phillip JungwirthBMO Capital Markets Equity Research