We Don’t Think Serinus Energy's (LON:SENX) Earnings Should Make Shareholders Too Comfortable

Shareholders didn't seem to be thrilled with Serinus Energy plc's (LON:SENX) recent earnings report, despite healthy profit numbers. We think that they might be concerned about some underlying details that our analysis found.

View our latest analysis for Serinus Energy

To understand the value of a company's earnings growth, it is imperative to consider any dilution of shareholders' interests. Serinus Energy expanded the number of shares on issue by 377% over the last year. Therefore, each share now receives a smaller portion of profit. Per share metrics like EPS help us understand how much actual shareholders are benefitting from the company's profits, while the net income level gives us a better view of the company's absolute size. Check out Serinus Energy's historical EPS growth by clicking on this link.

A Look At The Impact Of Serinus Energy's Dilution on Its Earnings Per Share (EPS).

Serinus Energy was losing money three years ago. And even focusing only on the last twelve months, we don't have a meaningful growth rate because it made a loss a year ago, too. What we do know is that while it's great to see a profit over the last twelve months, that profit would have been better, on a per share basis, if the company hadn't needed to issue shares. So you can see that the dilution has had a fairly significant impact on shareholders.

If Serinus Energy's EPS can grow over time then that drastically improves the chances of the share price moving in the same direction. However, if its profit increases while its earnings per share stay flat (or even fall) then shareholders might not see much benefit. For the ordinary retail shareholder, EPS is a great measure to check your hypothetical "share" of the company's profit.

That might leave you wondering what analysts are forecasting in terms of future profitability. Luckily, you can click here to see an interactive graph depicting future profitability, based on their estimates.

The Impact Of Unusual Items On Profit

Finally, we should also consider the fact that unusual items boosted Serinus Energy's net profit by US$11m over the last year. While we like to see profit increases, we tend to be a little more cautious when unusual items have made a big contribution. We ran the numbers on most publicly listed companies worldwide, and it's very common for unusual items to be once-off in nature. And that's as you'd expect, given these boosts are described as 'unusual'. We can see that Serinus Energy's positive unusual items were quite significant relative to its profit in the year to June 2021. All else being equal, this would likely have the effect of making the statutory profit a poor guide to underlying earnings power.

Our Take On Serinus Energy's Profit Performance

To sum it all up, Serinus Energy got a nice boost to profit from unusual items; without that, its statutory results would have looked worse. On top of that, the dilution means that its earnings per share performance is worse than its profit performance. For all the reasons mentioned above, we think that, at a glance, Serinus Energy's statutory profits could be considered to be low quality, because they are likely to give investors an overly positive impression of the company. Keep in mind, when it comes to analysing a stock it's worth noting the risks involved. Be aware that Serinus Energy is showing 5 warning signs in our investment analysis and 2 of those can't be ignored...

Our examination of Serinus Energy has focussed on certain factors that can make its earnings look better than they are. And, on that basis, we are somewhat skeptical. But there are plenty of other ways to inform your opinion of a company. For example, many people consider a high return on equity as an indication of favorable business economics, while others like to 'follow the money' and search out stocks that insiders are buying. While it might take a little research on your behalf, you may find this free collection of companies boasting high return on equity, or this list of stocks that insiders are buying to be useful.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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