Stock Analysis

Investors Don't See Light At End Of Orchard Funding Group plc's (LON:ORCH) Tunnel And Push Stock Down 27%

AIM:ORCH
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Unfortunately for some shareholders, the Orchard Funding Group plc (LON:ORCH) share price has dived 27% in the last thirty days, prolonging recent pain. The recent drop completes a disastrous twelve months for shareholders, who are sitting on a 60% loss during that time.

After such a large drop in price, Orchard Funding Group may be sending very bullish signals at the moment with its price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 2.1x, since almost half of all companies in the United Kingdom have P/E ratios greater than 16x and even P/E's higher than 30x are not unusual. Nonetheless, we'd need to dig a little deeper to determine if there is a rational basis for the highly reduced P/E.

Orchard Funding Group has been doing a good job lately as it's been growing earnings at a solid pace. One possibility is that the P/E is low because investors think this respectable earnings growth might actually underperform the broader market in the near future. If you like the company, you'd be hoping this isn't the case so that you could potentially pick up some stock while it's out of favour.

View our latest analysis for Orchard Funding Group

pe-multiple-vs-industry
AIM:ORCH Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry March 19th 2024
We don't have analyst forecasts, but you can see how recent trends are setting up the company for the future by checking out our free report on Orchard Funding Group's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

Is There Any Growth For Orchard Funding Group?

In order to justify its P/E ratio, Orchard Funding Group would need to produce anemic growth that's substantially trailing the market.

Retrospectively, the last year delivered a decent 13% gain to the company's bottom line. This was backed up an excellent period prior to see EPS up by 35% in total over the last three years. Accordingly, shareholders would have probably welcomed those medium-term rates of earnings growth.

This is in contrast to the rest of the market, which is expected to grow by 16% over the next year, materially higher than the company's recent medium-term annualised growth rates.

In light of this, it's understandable that Orchard Funding Group's P/E sits below the majority of other companies. Apparently many shareholders weren't comfortable holding on to something they believe will continue to trail the bourse.

The Bottom Line On Orchard Funding Group's P/E

Having almost fallen off a cliff, Orchard Funding Group's share price has pulled its P/E way down as well. Using the price-to-earnings ratio alone to determine if you should sell your stock isn't sensible, however it can be a practical guide to the company's future prospects.

We've established that Orchard Funding Group maintains its low P/E on the weakness of its recent three-year growth being lower than the wider market forecast, as expected. At this stage investors feel the potential for an improvement in earnings isn't great enough to justify a higher P/E ratio. Unless the recent medium-term conditions improve, they will continue to form a barrier for the share price around these levels.

It's always necessary to consider the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We've identified 6 warning signs with Orchard Funding Group (at least 5 which are a bit concerning), and understanding these should be part of your investment process.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking at a few good candidates. So take a peek at this free list of companies with a strong growth track record, trading on a low P/E.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.