Warren Buffett famously said, 'Volatility is far from synonymous with risk.' When we think about how risky a company is, we always like to look at its use of debt, since debt overload can lead to ruin. We can see that Trainline Plc (LON:TRN) does use debt in its business. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
What Risk Does Debt Bring?
Generally speaking, debt only becomes a real problem when a company can't easily pay it off, either by raising capital or with its own cash flow. In the worst case scenario, a company can go bankrupt if it cannot pay its creditors. However, a more frequent (but still costly) occurrence is where a company must issue shares at bargain-basement prices, permanently diluting shareholders, just to shore up its balance sheet. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we think about a company's use of debt, we first look at cash and debt together.
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How Much Debt Does Trainline Carry?
The image below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Trainline had debt of UK£203.3m at the end of August 2021, a reduction from UK£227.7m over a year. However, it also had UK£59.4m in cash, and so its net debt is UK£143.9m.
A Look At Trainline's Liabilities
We can see from the most recent balance sheet that Trainline had liabilities of UK£132.1m falling due within a year, and liabilities of UK£220.3m due beyond that. On the other hand, it had cash of UK£59.4m and UK£37.0m worth of receivables due within a year. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by UK£256.0m.
Given Trainline has a market capitalization of UK£1.34b, it's hard to believe these liabilities pose much threat. Having said that, it's clear that we should continue to monitor its balance sheet, lest it change for the worse. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Trainline can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you want to see what the professionals think, you might find this free report on analyst profit forecasts to be interesting.
Over 12 months, Trainline made a loss at the EBIT level, and saw its revenue drop to UK£114m, which is a fall of 30%. To be frank that doesn't bode well.
Caveat Emptor
Not only did Trainline's revenue slip over the last twelve months, but it also produced negative earnings before interest and tax (EBIT). Indeed, it lost UK£66m at the EBIT level. Considering that alongside the liabilities mentioned above does not give us much confidence that company should be using so much debt. So we think its balance sheet is a little strained, though not beyond repair. We would feel better if it turned its trailing twelve month loss of UK£61m into a profit. So to be blunt we do think it is risky. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. However, not all investment risk resides within the balance sheet - far from it. Be aware that Trainline is showing 1 warning sign in our investment analysis , you should know about...
Of course, if you're the type of investor who prefers buying stocks without the burden of debt, then don't hesitate to discover our exclusive list of net cash growth stocks, today.
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Access Free AnalysisThis article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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About LSE:TRN
Trainline
Engages in the operation of an independent rail and coach travel platform that sells rail and coach tickets the United Kingdom and internationally.
Solid track record with excellent balance sheet.