Trainline Plc

LSE:TRN Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.5b

Trainline Valuation

Is TRN undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TRN when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Discounted Cash Flow
Simply Wall St
UK£5.18
Fair Value
31.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Below Fair Value: TRN (£3.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£5.18)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TRN is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TRN?

Key metric: As TRN is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for TRN. This is calculated by dividing TRN's market cap by their current earnings.
What is TRN's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio28.2x
EarningsUK£54.36m
Market CapUK£1.53b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TRN's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for TRN vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average25x
PPH PPHE Hotel Group
26.2x27.0%UK£574.6m
OTB On the Beach Group
20.2x20.7%UK£407.9m
WTB Whitbread
20.3x15.6%UK£4.9b
IHG InterContinental Hotels Group
33.3x11.1%UK£17.1b
TRN Trainline
28.2x16.7%UK£1.5b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TRN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.2x) compared to the peer average (25x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TRN's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TAST Tasty
0.3x-82.7%US$2.09m
No more companies available in this PE range
TRN 28.2xIndustry Avg. 15.9xNo. of Companies6PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TRN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.2x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (16x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TRN's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TRN PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio28.2x
Fair PE Ratio22.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TRN is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (28.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst TRN forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£3.53
UK£4.60
+30.0%
13.6%UK£5.80UK£3.15n/a12
Jan ’26UK£4.32
UK£4.58
+6.1%
14.0%UK£5.80UK£3.15n/a12
Dec ’25UK£4.08
UK£4.47
+9.5%
14.1%UK£5.80UK£3.15n/a12
Nov ’25UK£3.88
UK£4.24
+9.1%
15.2%UK£5.56UK£3.15n/a12
Oct ’25UK£3.27
UK£4.22
+28.9%
14.3%UK£5.30UK£3.15n/a12
Sep ’25UK£3.00
UK£4.10
+36.6%
13.7%UK£4.70UK£2.85n/a12
Aug ’25UK£3.33
UK£4.10
+23.0%
13.7%UK£4.70UK£2.85n/a12
Jul ’25UK£3.21
UK£4.15
+29.5%
12.4%UK£4.70UK£2.85n/a11
Jun ’25UK£3.21
UK£4.07
+26.6%
13.9%UK£4.70UK£2.85n/a12
May ’25UK£2.93
UK£3.99
+36.2%
13.0%UK£4.60UK£3.00n/a12
Apr ’25UK£3.70
UK£4.05
+9.2%
11.6%UK£4.60UK£3.15n/a11
Mar ’25UK£3.08
UK£3.79
+22.9%
11.3%UK£4.60UK£3.15n/a11
Feb ’25UK£3.22
UK£3.71
+15.3%
11.3%UK£4.60UK£3.15UK£3.6011
Jan ’25UK£3.22
UK£3.63
+12.7%
11.3%UK£4.60UK£3.15UK£4.3211
Dec ’24UK£2.80
UK£3.60
+28.8%
15.4%UK£4.70UK£2.70UK£4.0812
Nov ’24UK£2.63
UK£3.74
+42.4%
17.1%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.8812
Oct ’24UK£2.79
UK£3.69
+32.2%
17.4%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.2713
Sep ’24UK£2.30
UK£3.66
+58.8%
18.9%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.0012
Aug ’24UK£2.55
UK£3.70
+45.3%
19.2%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.3311
Jul ’24UK£2.61
UK£3.70
+41.7%
19.2%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.2111
Jun ’24UK£2.60
UK£3.70
+42.5%
19.2%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.2111
May ’24UK£2.49
UK£3.60
+44.3%
19.0%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£2.9311
Apr ’24UK£2.49
UK£3.60
+44.7%
19.0%UK£4.80UK£2.70UK£3.7011
Mar ’24UK£2.58
UK£3.72
+44.3%
20.8%UK£4.87UK£2.70UK£3.0811
Feb ’24UK£2.83
UK£3.79
+34.3%
18.8%UK£4.87UK£2.80UK£3.2211
Analyst Price Target
Consensus Narrative from 12 Analysts
UK£4.60
Fair Value
23.1% undervalued intrinsic discount
12
Number of Analysts

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/02/06 01:30
End of Day Share Price 2025/02/06 00:00
Earnings2024/08/31
Annual Earnings2024/02/29

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Trainline Plc is covered by 22 analysts. 11 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Andrew RossBarclays
Owen ShirleyBerenberg
Ciaran DonnellyBerenberg