On the Beach Group plc

LSE:OTB Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£406.6m

On the Beach Group Valuation

Is OTB undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OTB when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OTB (£2.44) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£5.26)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OTB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OTB?

Key metric: As OTB is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for OTB. This is calculated by dividing OTB's market cap by their current earnings.
What is OTB's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.1x
EarningsUK£20.20m
Market CapUK£406.62m

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does OTB's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for OTB vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average23.7x
PPH PPHE Hotel Group
26x27.0%UK£570.4m
HSW Hostelworld Group
12.9x9.0%UK£162.0m
TRN Trainline
34.7x17.6%UK£1.9b
WTB Whitbread
21.4x14.2%UK£5.1b
OTB On the Beach Group
20.1x22.2%UK£406.6m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: OTB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x) compared to the peer average (23.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does OTB's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TAST Tasty
0.4x-75.9%US$2.36m
No more companies available in this PE range
OTB 20.1xIndustry Avg. 20.1xNo. of Companies5PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: OTB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (20.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OTB's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OTB PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.1x
Fair PE Ratio21.5x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: OTB is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (21.5x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OTB forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£2.44
UK£2.43
-0.04%
21.5%UK£3.00UK£1.80n/a5
Dec ’25UK£1.68
UK£2.15
+28.0%
21.5%UK£3.00UK£1.70n/a6
Nov ’25UK£1.49
UK£2.15
+43.6%
21.5%UK£3.00UK£1.70n/a6
Oct ’25UK£1.35
UK£2.13
+57.9%
24.3%UK£3.00UK£1.40n/a7
Sep ’25UK£1.53
UK£2.14
+39.9%
22.7%UK£3.00UK£1.40n/a8
Aug ’25UK£1.46
UK£2.14
+46.8%
22.7%UK£3.00UK£1.40n/a8
Jul ’25UK£1.39
UK£2.14
+53.3%
22.7%UK£3.00UK£1.40n/a8
Jun ’25UK£1.40
UK£2.09
+49.6%
21.8%UK£3.00UK£1.40n/a9
May ’25UK£1.44
UK£2.14
+48.5%
20.4%UK£3.00UK£1.40n/a9
Apr ’25UK£1.65
UK£2.14
+29.5%
20.4%UK£3.00UK£1.40n/a9
Mar ’25UK£1.49
UK£2.13
+42.6%
20.2%UK£3.00UK£1.40n/a9
Feb ’25UK£1.47
UK£2.09
+41.7%
19.6%UK£3.00UK£1.40n/a9
Jan ’25UK£1.75
UK£2.23
+27.3%
24.1%UK£3.20UK£1.40n/a9
Dec ’24UK£1.18
UK£1.99
+69.2%
32.9%UK£3.20UK£1.00UK£1.6810
Nov ’24UK£0.97
UK£1.95
+100.0%
35.3%UK£3.20UK£1.00UK£1.4910
Oct ’24UK£1.06
UK£1.94
+83.5%
33.8%UK£3.20UK£1.00UK£1.3511
Sep ’24UK£0.93
UK£1.95
+110.4%
35.3%UK£3.20UK£1.00UK£1.5310
Aug ’24UK£0.87
UK£1.95
+123.4%
35.3%UK£3.20UK£1.00UK£1.4610
Jul ’24UK£0.96
UK£2.01
+109.8%
34.3%UK£3.20UK£1.00UK£1.3911
Jun ’24UK£0.99
UK£2.05
+106.5%
35.0%UK£3.20UK£1.00UK£1.4010
May ’24UK£1.32
UK£2.21
+67.3%
28.4%UK£3.20UK£1.20UK£1.449
Apr ’24UK£1.44
UK£2.23
+55.4%
26.6%UK£3.20UK£1.40UK£1.659
Mar ’24UK£1.64
UK£2.23
+35.9%
26.6%UK£3.20UK£1.40UK£1.499
Feb ’24UK£1.74
UK£2.17
+24.6%
27.3%UK£3.20UK£1.40UK£1.479
Jan ’24UK£1.56
UK£2.06
+32.0%
30.4%UK£3.20UK£1.25UK£1.759
Dec ’23UK£1.25
UK£2.19
+75.9%
28.7%UK£3.20UK£1.25UK£1.188

Analyst Forecast: Target price is lower than the current share price.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 01:43
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/09/30
Annual Earnings2024/09/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

On the Beach Group plc is covered by 14 analysts. 4 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Joseph BarronBerenberg
Benjamin Sandland-TaylorBerenberg
Karl BurnsCanaccord Genuity