Greggs Past Earnings Performance
Past criteria checks 2/6
Greggs has been growing earnings at an average annual rate of 15.7%, while the Hospitality industry saw earnings growing at 43.4% annually. Revenues have been growing at an average rate of 16.5% per year. Greggs's return on equity is 19.5%, and it has net margins of 5.7%.
Key information
15.68%
Earnings growth rate
15.59%
EPS growth rate
| Hospitality Industry Growth | 1.31% |
| Revenue growth rate | 16.46% |
| Return on equity | 19.55% |
| Net Margin | 5.68% |
| Next Earnings Update | 29 Jul 2026 |
Recent past performance updates
Recent updates
Narrative Update • May 03
GRG: Execution On Store Rollout And ESG Commitments Will Sustain Future Share Upside
Greggs' analyst price targets have been trimmed by up to around £0.20 per share in recent updates, as analysts factor in slightly higher discount rates, modestly adjusted growth and margin assumptions, and a more cautious stance reflected in recent bearish and downgrade commentary. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Greggs has shifted to a more cautious tone, but several bullish analysts continue to see upside based on execution, store economics and potential for further growth in the estate and product range.
Narrative Update • Apr 19
GRG: Refined Discount Rate And Health Commitments Will Shape Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their average price target on Greggs, with recent cuts from around £19.70 to a range of roughly £18.30 to £20.90. They cited slightly higher discount rates and only marginal tweaks to revenue growth, profit margin and future P/E assumptions.Narrative Update • Apr 04
GRG: Rating Support And Execution On Existing Plans Will Sustain Share Upside
Analysts have trimmed their price targets on Greggs, with several cuts in the £20 range contributing to a modestly lower implied valuation, even as they continue to reference supportive views on the business in their research. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Greggs has centred on small reductions in price targets, while keeping broadly constructive views on the company’s ability to execute.Narrative Update • Mar 21
GRG: Firmer Margins And Lower P E Assumptions Will Support Upside
Analysts have nudged Greggs' fair value estimate lower from £17.80 to about £17.31, reflecting a series of reduced price targets in the £1,830 to £2,090 range as they factor in a slightly higher discount rate, more cautious revenue growth and a lower assumed future P/E, partly offset by firmer profit margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent price target moves for Greggs cluster in a relatively tight band between £18.30 and £20.90, with several trims over time as analysts factor in updated assumptions on discount rates, growth and P/E.Narrative Update • Mar 07
GRG: Store Expansion And Brand Loyalty Will Support Upside As Rating Support Persists
The updated analyst price target on Greggs moves from £24.90 to £22.00, as analysts incorporate slightly higher discount rates and a lower future P/E multiple while keeping their revenue growth and margin expectations steady in recent research updates. Analyst Commentary Recent research on Greggs points to analysts reassessing their valuation frameworks rather than making abrupt shifts in their fundamental views.Narrative Update • Feb 21
GRG: Trimmed Multiples And Margins Will Still Support Future Upside
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Greggs from £18.91 to £17.80. This reflects slightly softer assumptions on revenue growth, profit margins and future P/E, even as recent research updates still frame the stock positively.Narrative Update • Feb 07
GRG: Store Expansion And Brand Loyalty Will Support Future Upside Despite Trimmed Assumptions
Analysts have trimmed their price targets for Greggs to around £20.60 to £21.70 per share, reflecting updated assumptions on discount rates, revenue, profit margins and future P/E multiples while still viewing the shares positively overall. Analyst Commentary Recent research updates show that while target prices have been trimmed, several bullish analysts still see room for upside in Greggs shares at current levels.Analysis Article • Jan 31
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?
While Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) might not have the largest market cap around , it saw a double-digit share price rise of...Narrative Update • Jan 23
GRG: Store Expansion And Brand Loyalty Will Support Future Upside Despite Softer Assumptions
Narrative Update: Greggs The analyst price target for Greggs has been trimmed as fair value estimates eased from 26.70 to 24.90. This reflects lower revenue growth and profit margin assumptions after recent Street research cuts to targets in the £20.60 to £21.70 range, while keeping positive ratings in place.Narrative Update • Jan 09
GRG: Margin And P/E Repricing Will Support Future Upside Potential
Analysts have trimmed their fair value estimate for Greggs from £19.43 to £18.91, reflecting slightly higher discount rates, somewhat softer revenue growth and profit margins, and a marginally higher assumed future P/E multiple. Valuation Changes Fair value estimate reduced slightly from £19.43 to £18.91 per share.Narrative Update • Dec 20
GRG: Store Expansion And Brand Loyalty Will Drive Long-Term Upside
Our updated narrative for Greggs reduces the fair value estimate from 30.6 to 26.7 per share. This reflects analysts lowering their price targets by roughly GBp 420 and GBp 160 respectively, as they incorporate slightly slower multiple expansion despite broadly unchanged growth and margin expectations.Analysis Article • Dec 17
Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Looks Inexpensive But Perhaps Not Attractive Enough
When close to half the companies in the United Kingdom have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") above 16x, you may...Narrative Update • Dec 06
GRG: Margin Resilience Will Support Upside As Store Expansion Accelerates
Analysts have trimmed their price target on Greggs to approximately £19.43 from about £19.46, reflecting slightly higher long term revenue growth and margin expectations, but a modestly lower valuation multiple in light of recent target reductions across the Street. Analyst Commentary Recent target revisions indicate that bullish analysts remain constructive on Greggs despite trimming their price objectives.Narrative Update • Nov 22
GRG: Profit Margins Will Hold Up Despite Ongoing Input Cost Pressures
The analyst price target for Greggs has been lowered, falling by approximately £200 to £400, as analysts cite slightly reduced revenue growth forecasts and minor adjustments to profit margin expectations. Analyst Commentary Recent analyst revisions reflect both ongoing optimism and emerging caution around Greggs' near-term prospects.Analysis Article • Nov 18
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Greggs plc (LON:GRG)
Key Insights Using the 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity, Greggs fair value estimate is UK£14.02 Greggs' UK£15.05 share...Analysis Article • Oct 22
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Doing The Right Things To Multiply Its Share Price
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. In a perfect...Analysis Article • Sep 09
Greggs (LON:GRG) Has A Pretty Healthy Balance Sheet
Some say volatility, rather than debt, is the best way to think about risk as an investor, but Warren Buffett famously...Analysis Article • Aug 28
Greggs (LON:GRG) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of £0.19
Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of £0.19 per share on the 10th of October. This makes...Analysis Article • Aug 16
Insufficient Growth At Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Hampers Share Price
LSE:GRG 1 Year Share Price vs Fair Value Explore Greggs's Fair Values from the Community and select yours With a...Analysis Article • Aug 01
Greggs (LON:GRG) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of £0.19
Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) has announced that it will pay a dividend of £0.19 per share on the 10th of October. This makes...Analysis Article • Jun 28
Greggs (LON:GRG) Knows How To Allocate Capital
What trends should we look for it we want to identify stocks that can multiply in value over the long term? In a...Analysis Article • Jun 11
Is There An Opportunity With Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) 46% Undervaluation?
Key Insights The projected fair value for Greggs is UK£36.56 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share...Analysis Article • May 14
Here's Why Shareholders May Want To Be Cautious With Increasing Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) CEO Pay Packet
Key Insights Greggs' Annual General Meeting to take place on 21st of May CEO Roisin Currie's total compensation...Analysis Article • May 11
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?
Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw significant share price movement during recent...Analysis Article • Mar 11
Greggs (LON:GRG) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues
Greggs plc's ( LON:GRG ) stock didn't jump after it announced some healthy earnings. We did some digging and believe...
New Narrative • Mar 09
Upcoming Shop Openings And Tech Investments Will Extend Reach But May Pressure Margins
Strategic expansion, supply chain investment, and menu innovation are set to boost revenue, profit margins, and operational capacity.Analysis Article • Mar 06
Greggs plc Just Beat EPS By 11%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
It's been a sad week for Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ), who've watched their investment drop 13% to UK£18.17 in the week since...Analysis Article • Jan 25
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Investing Its Capital With Increasing Efficiency
To find a multi-bagger stock, what are the underlying trends we should look for in a business? Typically, we'll want to...Analysis Article • Jan 11
Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Popularity With Investors Under Threat As Stock Sinks 25%
The Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) share price has fared very poorly over the last month, falling by a substantial 25%. The...Analysis Article • Jan 06
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Greggs plc (LON:GRG)
Key Insights Greggs' estimated fair value is UK£29.08 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity With UK£27.96 share...Analysis Article • Dec 21
When Should You Buy Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?
While Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) might not have the largest market cap around , it received a lot of attention from a...Analysis Article • Oct 31
Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing
When close to half the companies in the United Kingdom have price-to-earnings ratios (or "P/E's") below 16x, you may...Analysis Article • Oct 15
Investors Shouldn't Overlook Greggs' (LON:GRG) Impressive Returns On Capital
There are a few key trends to look for if we want to identify the next multi-bagger. Ideally, a business will show two...Analysis Article • Sep 15
At UK£31.72, Is Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Worth Looking At Closely?
Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a double-digit share price rise of over 10% in the...Analysis Article • Aug 21
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of £0.19
Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) will pay a dividend of £0.19 on the 4th of October. This makes the dividend yield about the same...Analysis Article • Aug 01
Analysts Are Updating Their Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Estimates After Its Half-Yearly Results
Investors in Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) had a good week, as its shares rose 8.3% to close at UK£30.82 following the release...Analysis Article • Jun 04
If EPS Growth Is Important To You, Greggs (LON:GRG) Presents An Opportunity
The excitement of investing in a company that can reverse its fortunes is a big draw for some speculators, so even...Analysis Article • May 22
There's Reason For Concern Over Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Price
With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.3x Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) may be sending bearish signals at the moment...Analysis Article • May 01
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Reinvesting At Lower Rates Of Return
If we want to find a potential multi-bagger, often there are underlying trends that can provide clues. In a perfect...Analysis Article • Apr 12
Greggs plc Just Beat EPS By 9.3%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next
As you might know, Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) recently reported its annual numbers. The result was positive overall...Analysis Article • Apr 05
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Paying Out A Larger Dividend Than Last Year
Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) has announced that it will be increasing its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the...Analysis Article • Mar 28
Is Now The Time To Look At Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?
Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ), might not be a large cap stock, but it saw a decent share price growth of 16% on the LSE over...Analysis Article • Mar 12
Greggs' (LON:GRG) Profits Appear To Have Quality Issues
Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) just released a solid earnings report, and the stock displayed some strength. Despite this, our...Analysis Article • Mar 08
Greggs' (LON:GRG) Dividend Will Be Increased To £0.86
Greggs plc ( LON:GRG ) will increase its dividend from last year's comparable payment on the 24th of May to £0.86. This...Analysis Article • Feb 10
An Intrinsic Calculation For Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Suggests It's 29% Undervalued
Key Insights Greggs' estimated fair value is UK£37.83 based on 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Current share price of...Analysis Article • Jan 22
Is Now The Time To Put Greggs (LON:GRG) On Your Watchlist?
For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
Revenue & Expenses Breakdown
How Greggs makes and spends money. Based on latest reported earnings, on an LTM basis.
Earnings and Revenue History
| Date | Revenue | Earnings | G+A Expenses | R&D Expenses |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 Dec 25 | 2,151 | 122 | 1,128 | 0 |
| 27 Sep 25 | 2,116 | 134 | 1,108 | 0 |
| 28 Jun 25 | 2,082 | 145 | 1,089 | 0 |
| 28 Mar 25 | 2,048 | 149 | 1,066 | 0 |
| 28 Dec 24 | 2,014 | 153 | 1,043 | 0 |
| 28 Sep 24 | 1,970 | 145 | 1,016 | 0 |
| 29 Jun 24 | 1,926 | 137 | 989 | 0 |
| 29 Mar 24 | 1,868 | 140 | 956 | 0 |
| 30 Dec 23 | 1,810 | 143 | 923 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 23 | 1,736 | 139 | 890 | 0 |
| 01 Jul 23 | 1,662 | 135 | 857 | 0 |
| 01 Apr 23 | 1,588 | 128 | 820 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 22 | 1,513 | 120 | 783 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 22 | 1,445 | 120 | 750 | 0 |
| 02 Jul 22 | 1,378 | 119 | 717 | 0 |
| 02 Apr 22 | 1,304 | 118 | 675 | 0 |
| 01 Jan 22 | 1,230 | 118 | 632 | 0 |
| 01 Oct 21 | 1,143 | 101 | 600 | 0 |
| 03 Jul 21 | 1,057 | 85 | 569 | 0 |
| 03 Apr 21 | 934 | 36 | 543 | 0 |
| 02 Jan 21 | 811 | -13 | 518 | 0 |
| 02 Oct 20 | 867 | -4 | 540 | 0 |
| 27 Jun 20 | 922 | 4 | 562 | 0 |
| 27 Mar 20 | 1,045 | 46 | 599 | 0 |
| 28 Dec 19 | 1,168 | 87 | 635 | 0 |
| 28 Sep 19 | 1,134 | 81 | 620 | 0 |
| 29 Jun 19 | 1,099 | 76 | 605 | 0 |
| 29 Mar 19 | 1,064 | 71 | 586 | 0 |
| 29 Dec 18 | 1,029 | 66 | 566 | 0 |
| 29 Sep 18 | 1,006 | 63 | 556 | 0 |
| 30 Jun 18 | 983 | 61 | 546 | 0 |
| 31 Mar 18 | 972 | 59 | 538 | 0 |
| 30 Dec 17 | 960 | 57 | 530 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 17 | 942 | 55 | 521 | 0 |
| 01 Jul 17 | 925 | 53 | 511 | 0 |
| 01 Apr 17 | 910 | 56 | 500 | 0 |
| 31 Dec 16 | 894 | 58 | 490 | 0 |
| 30 Sep 16 | 877 | 58 | 480 | 0 |
| 02 Jul 16 | 859 | 57 | 471 | 0 |
| 02 Apr 16 | 848 | 57 | 464 | 0 |
| 02 Jan 16 | 836 | 58 | 458 | 0 |
| 02 Oct 15 | 833 | 55 | 458 | 0 |
| 04 Jul 15 | 830 | 51 | 458 | 0 |
Quality Earnings: GRG has high quality earnings.
Growing Profit Margin: GRG's current net profit margins (5.7%) are lower than last year (7.6%).
Free Cash Flow vs Earnings Analysis
Past Earnings Growth Analysis
Earnings Trend: GRG has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 15.7% per year.
Accelerating Growth: GRG's has had negative earnings growth over the past year, so it can't be compared to its 5-year average.
Earnings vs Industry: GRG had negative earnings growth (-20.3%) over the past year, making it difficult to compare to the Hospitality industry average (2.3%).
Return on Equity
High ROE: GRG's Return on Equity (19.5%) is considered low.
Return on Assets
Return on Capital Employed
Discover strong past performing companies
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
| Data | Last Updated (UTC time) |
|---|---|
| Company Analysis | 2026/05/31 07:19 |
| End of Day Share Price | 2026/05/29 00:00 |
| Earnings | 2025/12/27 |
| Annual Earnings | 2025/12/27 |
Data Sources
The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.
| Package | Data | Timeframe | Example US Source * |
|---|---|---|---|
| Company Financials | 10 years |
| |
| Analyst Consensus Estimates | +3 years |
|
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| Market Prices | 30 years |
| |
| Ownership | 10 years |
| |
| Management | 10 years |
| |
| Key Developments | 10 years |
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* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.
Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.
Analysis Model and Snowflake
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Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.
Industry and Sector Metrics
Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.
Analyst Sources
Greggs plc is covered by 26 analysts. 16 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.
| Analyst | Institution |
|---|---|
| Richard Taylor | Barclays |
| Matthew Abraham | Berenberg |
| Matthew Lloyd | BNP Paribas |