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Greggs

LSE:GRG
Snowflake Description

Excellent balance sheet with reasonable growth potential.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.
GRG
LSE
£2B
Market Cap
  1. Home
  2. GB
  3. Consumer Services
Company description

Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. The last earnings update was 36 days ago. More info.


Add to Portfolio Compare Print
  • Greggs has significant price volatility in the past 3 months.
GRG Share Price and Events
7 Day Returns
1.4%
LSE:GRG
1.4%
GB Hospitality
1%
GB Market
1 Year Returns
100.2%
LSE:GRG
-9.3%
GB Hospitality
-6.3%
GB Market
GRG Shareholder Return
  7 Day 30 Day 90 Day 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year
Greggs (GRG) 1.4% 15.9% 18% 100.2% 86.3% 304.2%
GB Hospitality 1.4% -0.1% -2.8% -9.3% 9% 28.4%
GB Market 1% -1.8% 1.5% -6.3% 14.4% 2%
1 Year Return vs Industry and Market
  • GRG outperformed the Hospitality industry which returned -9.3% over the past year.
  • GRG outperformed the Market in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland which returned -6.3% over the past year.
Price Volatility
GRG
Industry
5yr Volatility vs Market

Value

 Is Greggs undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.
INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS
Here we compare the current share price of Greggs to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.
Raw Data

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Greggs.

LSE:GRG Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 7.6%
Perpetual Growth Rate 10-Year GB Government Bond Rate 1.2%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for LSE:GRG
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 10-Year GB Govt Bond Rate 1.2%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 6.7%
Hospitality Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.93
Re-levered Beta = Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity))
= 0.932 (1 + (1- 19%) (0%))
0.954
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm)
0.95
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 1.23% + (0.954 * 6.65%)
7.57%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for LSE:GRG using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Greggs is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

LSE:GRG DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (GBP, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 7.57%)
2019 47.10 Analyst x2 43.78
2020 78.15 Analyst x2 67.54
2021 91.15 Analyst x2 73.23
2022 101.29 Est @ 11.13% 75.64
2023 109.55 Est @ 8.16% 76.05
2024 116.21 Est @ 6.08% 75.00
2025 121.58 Est @ 4.62% 72.94
2026 125.96 Est @ 3.6% 70.25
2027 129.60 Est @ 2.89% 67.19
2028 132.70 Est @ 2.39% 63.96
Present value of next 10 years cash flows £685.58
LSE:GRG DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value = FCF2028 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= £132.70 × (1 + 1.23%) ÷ (7.57% – 1.23%)
£2,117.14
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
= £2,117.14 ÷ (1 + 7.57%)10
£1,020.38
LSE:GRG Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= £685.58 + £1,020.38
£1,705.96
Equity Value per Share
(GBP)
= Total value / Shares Outstanding
= £1,705.96 / 100.60
£16.96
LSE:GRG Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (GBP) From above. £16.96
Current discount Discount to share price of £21.02
= -1 x (£21.02 - £16.96) / £16.96
-23.9%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

  • The current share price of Greggs is above its future cash flow value.
Often investors are willing to pay a premium for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.
PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET
We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for Greggs's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.
Price based on past earnings
Are Greggs's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?
Raw Data
LSE:GRG PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Earnings Per Share * Company Filings (2018-12-29) in GBP £0.65
LSE:GRG Share Price ** LSE (2019-05-22) in GBP £21.02
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry PE Ratio Median Figure of 34 Publicly-Listed Hospitality Companies 18.17x
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market PE Ratio Median Figure of 788 Publicly-Listed Companies 16.35x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of Greggs.

LSE:GRG PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PE Ratio

= LSE:GRG Share Price ÷ EPS (both in GBP)

= 21.02 ÷ 0.65

32.2x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Greggs is overvalued based on earnings compared to the GB Hospitality industry average.
  • Greggs is overvalued based on earnings compared to the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market.
Price based on expected Growth
Does Greggs's expected growth come at a high price?
Raw Data
LSE:GRG PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
PE Ratio See PE Ratio Section 32.2x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate See Future Growth Section.
Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 8 Analysts
13.7%per year
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry PEG Ratio Median Figure of 28 Publicly-Listed Hospitality Companies 2.06x
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market PEG Ratio Median Figure of 574 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.48x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

LSE:GRG PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PEG Ratio

= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate

= 32.2x ÷ 13.7%

2.36x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Greggs is poor value based on expected growth next year.
Price based on value of assets
What value do investors place on Greggs's assets?
Raw Data
LSE:GRG PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Book Value per Share Company Filings (2018-12-29) in GBP £3.27
LSE:GRG Share Price * LSE (2019-05-22) in GBP £21.02
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry PB Ratio Median Figure of 54 Publicly-Listed Hospitality Companies 1.42x
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market PB Ratio Median Figure of 1,369 Publicly-Listed Companies 1.51x
LSE:GRG PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
Calculation Outcome
PB Ratio

= LSE:GRG Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in GBP)

= 21.02 ÷ 3.27

6.42x

* Primary Listing of Greggs.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Greggs is overvalued based on assets compared to the GB Hospitality industry average.
X
Value checks
We assess Greggs's value by looking at:
  1. Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
  2. Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Hospitality industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
  3. Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
  4. Is the PB ratio less than the Hospitality industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)
  5. Greggs has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

    Note: We use GAAP Earnings per Share in all our calculations including PE and PEG Ratio.

    Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

 How is Greggs expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 8 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!
Annual Growth Rate
13.7%
Expected annual growth in earnings.
Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings
Is Greggs expected to grow at an attractive rate?
  • Greggs's earnings growth is expected to exceed the low risk savings rate of 1.2%.
Growth vs Market Checks
  • Greggs's earnings growth is expected to exceed the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market average.
  • Greggs's revenue growth is expected to exceed the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market average.
Annual Growth Rates Comparison
Raw Data
LSE:GRG Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point Source Value (per year)
LSE:GRG Future Earnings Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 8 Analysts 13.7%
LSE:GRG Future Revenue Growth Rate Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 8 Analysts 6.6%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 12.1%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 5.8%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market Earnings Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 11%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market Revenue Growth Rate Market Cap Weighted Average 5%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations
Raw Data
LSE:GRG Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (4 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
All numbers in GBP Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.
LSE:GRG Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in GBP Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income * Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31 1,440 1
2022-12-31 1,371 1
2021-12-31 1,289 176 101 7
2020-12-31 1,221 164 92 8
2019-12-31 1,149 139 85 8
2018-12-31 1,028 122 65 7
LSE:GRG Past Financials Data
Date (Data in GBP Millions) Revenue Cash Flow Net Income *
2018-12-29 1,029 136 66
2018-09-29 1,006 129 63
2018-06-30 983 122 61
2018-03-31 972 119 59
2017-12-30 960 117 57
2017-09-30 942 112 55
2017-07-01 925 107 53
2017-04-01 910 112 56
2016-12-31 894 118 58
2016-09-30 877 116 58
2016-07-02 859 114 57
2016-04-02 848 109 57
2016-01-02 836 104 58

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Super high growth metrics
High Growth Checks
  • Greggs's earnings are expected to grow by 13.7% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
  • Greggs's revenue is expected to grow by 6.6% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).
Past and Future Earnings per Share
The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.
Raw Data
LSE:GRG Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point Source Value
Past Financials Company Filings (4 months ago) See Below
Future Estimates Average of up to 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below

All data from Greggs Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

LSE:GRG Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in GBP Millions) EPS * EPS High Estimate EPS Low Estimate Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31
2021-12-31 1.00 1.06 0.94 4.00
2020-12-31 0.93 0.95 0.91 5.00
2019-12-31 0.83 0.87 0.80 5.00
2018-12-31 0.63 0.65 0.57 5.00
LSE:GRG Past Financials Data
Date (Data in GBP Millions) EPS *
2018-12-29 0.65
2018-09-29 0.63
2018-06-30 0.60
2018-03-31 0.58
2017-12-30 0.57
2017-09-30 0.55
2017-07-01 0.53
2017-04-01 0.55
2016-12-31 0.58
2016-09-30 0.57
2016-07-02 0.57
2016-04-02 0.57
2016-01-02 0.57

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years
In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.
  • Greggs is expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity greater than 20%).
X
Future performance checks
We assess Greggs's future performance by looking at:
  1. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
  2. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market? (1 check)
  3. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland market? (1 check)
  4. Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
  6. Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)
Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
Greggs has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

  How has Greggs performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.
Past earnings growth
Below we compare Greggs's growth in the last year to its industry (Hospitality).
Past Earnings growth analysis
We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.
  • Greggs's year on year earnings growth rate has been positive over the past 5 years.
  • Greggs's 1-year earnings growth exceeds its 5-year average (15.6% vs 15.5%)
  • Greggs's earnings growth has exceeded the GB Hospitality industry average in the past year (15.6% vs 12.8%).
Earnings and Revenue History
Greggs's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.
Raw Data

All data from Greggs Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

LSE:GRG Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in GBP Millions) Revenue Net Income * G+A Expenses R&D Expenses
2018-12-29 1,029.35 65.74 566.21
2018-09-29 1,006.41 63.23 555.92
2018-06-30 983.48 60.72 545.62
2018-03-31 971.74 58.82 537.99
2017-12-30 960.01 56.91 530.35
2017-09-30 942.46 55.14 520.80
2017-07-01 924.92 53.37 511.25
2017-04-01 909.56 55.68 500.48
2016-12-31 894.20 57.99 489.71
2016-09-30 876.84 57.65 480.23
2016-07-02 859.48 57.31 470.75
2016-04-02 847.61 57.46 464.29
2016-01-02 835.75 57.60 457.83
2015-10-02 832.95 54.52 458.01
2015-07-04 830.15 51.45 458.19
2015-04-04 818.12 44.50 450.71
2015-01-03 806.10 37.56 443.22
2014-10-03 790.58 29.63 432.98
2014-06-28 775.06 21.71 422.73
2014-03-28 768.72 22.95 418.94
2013-12-28 762.38 24.19 415.15
2013-09-28 754.44 30.35 408.96
2013-06-29 746.51 36.50 402.78
2013-03-29 740.50 38.16 399.61
2012-12-29 734.50 39.81 396.44
2012-09-29 725.28 39.05 391.14
2012-06-30 716.06 38.28 385.84

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year
We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.
  • Greggs has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
  • Greggs used its assets more efficiently than the GB Hospitality industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
  • Greggs's use of capital has not improved over the past 3 years (Return on Capital Employed).
X
Past performance checks
We assess Greggs's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:
  1. Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
  2. Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Hospitality industry? (1 check)
  3. Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
  5. Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
  6. Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)
The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
Greggs has a total score of 4/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

 How is Greggs's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up Greggs's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.
Net Worth
  • Greggs's short term (1 year) commitments are greater than its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
  • Greggs's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.
Balance sheet
This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of Greggs's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.
Assets
Liabilities and shares
The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.
  • High level of physical assets or inventory.
  • Greggs has no debt, it does not need to be covered by short term assets.
Historical Debt
Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.
Raw Data

All data from Greggs Company Filings, last reported 4 months ago.

LSE:GRG Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in GBP Millions) Total Equity Total Debt Cash & Short Term Investments
2018-12-29 329.22 0.00 88.20
2018-09-29 329.22 0.00 88.20
2018-06-30 304.39 0.00 43.47
2018-03-31 304.39 0.00 43.47
2017-12-30 299.36 0.00 54.50
2017-09-30 299.36 0.00 54.50
2017-07-01 260.07 0.00 19.92
2017-04-01 260.07 0.00 19.92
2016-12-31 264.66 0.00 45.96
2016-09-30 264.66 0.00 45.96
2016-07-02 247.22 0.00 35.03
2016-04-02 247.22 0.00 35.03
2016-01-02 264.67 0.00 42.92
2015-10-02 264.67 0.00 42.92
2015-07-04 238.53 0.00 41.36
2015-04-04 238.53 0.00 41.36
2015-01-03 246.70 0.00 53.62
2014-10-03 246.70 0.00 53.62
2014-06-28 225.72 0.00 21.78
2014-03-28 225.72 0.00 21.78
2013-12-28 236.18 0.00 24.57
2013-09-28 236.18 0.00 24.57
2013-06-29 224.41 0.00 11.98
2013-03-29 224.41 0.00 11.98
2012-12-29 226.79 0.00 19.38
2012-09-29 226.79 0.00 19.38
2012-06-30 197.37 0.00 2.33
  • Greggs has no debt.
  • Greggs has not taken on any debt in the past 5 years.
  • Greggs has no debt, it does not need to be covered by operating cash flow.
  • Greggs has no debt, therefore coverage of interest payments is not a concern.
X
Financial health checks
We assess Greggs's financial health by checking for:
  1. Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
  2. Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
  3. Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
  5. Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
  6. Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)
  7. Greggs has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.
For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:
  1. Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
  2. Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)


Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

 What is Greggs's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.
Annual Dividend Income
Dividend payments
1.7%
Current annual income from Greggs dividends. Estimated to be 2.34% next year.
If you bought £2,000 of Greggs shares you are expected to receive £34 in your first year as a dividend.
Dividend Amount
Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?
  • Greggs's pays a lower dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (1.97%).
  • Greggs's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland (5.25%).
Annualized Historical and Future Dividends
It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.
Raw Data
LSE:GRG Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point Source Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield S&P Global Market Data See Below
Past Dividends per Share Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates Average of up to 8 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See Below
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Hospitality Industry Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 32 Stocks 3.2%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Market Average Dividend Yield Market Cap Weighted Average of 706 Stocks 4.3%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield 10th Percentile 1%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Bottom 25% Dividend Yield 25th Percentile 2%
United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland Top 25% Dividend Yield 75th Percentile 5.3%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

LSE:GRG Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in £) Dividend per Share (annual) Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31 0.53 1.00
2021-12-31 0.55 7.00
2020-12-31 0.49 8.00
2019-12-31 0.43 7.00
2018-12-31 0.34 7.00
LSE:GRG Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in £) Dividend per share (annual) Avg. Yield (%)
2019-04-16 0.357 1.896
2019-03-07 0.357 1.959
2018-07-31 0.327 2.631
2018-02-27 0.323 2.941
2017-04-03 0.310 2.586
2017-02-28 0.310 3.048
2016-05-03 0.286 2.851
2014-03-28 0.195 2.683
2014-02-26 0.195 3.905
2013-03-20 0.195 4.432
2012-04-16 0.193 3.951
2012-03-14 0.193 3.678
2011-03-16 0.182 3.575
2010-03-18 0.166 3.594
2010-03-03 0.166 3.912

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

  • Whilst dividend payments have been stable, Greggs has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years.
  • Dividend payments have increased, but Greggs only paid a dividend in the past 9 years.
Current Payout to shareholders
What portion of Greggs's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.
  • Dividends paid are covered by earnings (1.8x coverage).
Future Payout to shareholders
  • Dividends after 3 years are expected to be covered by earnings (1.8x coverage).
X
Income/ dividend checks
We assess Greggs's dividend by checking for:
  1. Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 1%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
  2. Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  3. Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
  4. Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
  5. If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
  6. How sustainable is the dividend, can Greggs afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)
  7. Greggs has a total score of 2/6, see the detailed checks below.


Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

 What is the CEO of Greggs's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.
CEO
Roger Whiteside
COMPENSATION £1,503,441
AGE 60
TENURE AS CEO 6.3 years
CEO Bio

Mr. Roger Whiteside, OBE, has been the Chief Executive Officer of Greggs plc since February 4, 2013. Mr. Whiteside served as the Chief Executive Officer of Punch Taverns plc from August 2011 to February 1, 2013. He served as Managing Director of Punch Partnerships (Leased) at Punch Taverns plc and served as its Managing Director of Leased Business since November 3, 2008. He co-founded Online Grocer Ocado in 2000 and served as its Joint Managing Director from 2000 to 2004. His roles followed a 20 year career with Marks and Spencer where he ultimately led its food business. He served as a Group Chief Executive of Thresher Group off-licence chain from 2004 to 2007. He began his career and spent 20 years at Marks & Spencer and served as its Head of food business. He served the helm of the off-licence group for three years. Mr. Whiteside has been an Independent Non-Executive Director of Card Factory PLC since December 04, 2017. He was Non-Executive of Greggs Plc since March 17, 2008 until February 3, 2013 and serves as its Executive Director since February 04, 2013. Mr. Whiteside served as an Executive Director of Punch Taverns plc from November 3, 2008 to February 1, 2013. He is Member of the Women’s Business Council.

CEO Compensation
  • Roger's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year, both up more than 20%.
  • Roger's remuneration is about average for companies of similar size in United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland.
Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Greggs management team in years:

7.8
Average Tenure
55
Average Age
  • The average tenure for the Greggs management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.
Management Team

Roger Whiteside

TITLE
CEO & Director
COMPENSATION
£2M
AGE
60
TENURE
6.3 yrs

Richard Hutton

TITLE
Finance Director & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
£722K
AGE
49
TENURE
13 yrs

Jonathan Jowett

TITLE
General Counsel & Company Secretary
AGE
55
TENURE
8.9 yrs

Tony Rowson

TITLE
Head of Retail
TENURE
6.6 yrs

Emma Walton

TITLE
Head of People

Roisin Currie

TITLE
Retail & People Director
Board of Directors Tenure

Average tenure and age of the Greggs board of directors in years:

6
Average Tenure
57
Average Age
  • The tenure for the Greggs board of directors is about average.
Board of Directors

Ian Durant

TITLE
Chairman
COMPENSATION
£168K
AGE
59
TENURE
6 yrs

Roger Whiteside

TITLE
CEO & Director
COMPENSATION
£2M
AGE
60
TENURE
11.2 yrs

Richard Hutton

TITLE
Finance Director & Executive Director
COMPENSATION
£722K
AGE
49
TENURE
13.2 yrs

Allison Kirkby

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
£51K
AGE
51
TENURE
6.3 yrs

Sandra Turner

TITLE
Senior Independent Director
COMPENSATION
£51K
AGE
66
TENURE
5 yrs

Helena Ganczakowski

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
£45K
AGE
55
TENURE
5.3 yrs

Peter McPhillips

TITLE
Independent Non-Executive Director
COMPENSATION
£45K
TENURE
5.2 yrs
Who owns this company?
Recent Insider Trading
  • Greggs insiders have only sold shares in the past 3 months, but not in substantial volumes.
Recent Insider Transactions
Announced Type Name Entity Role Start End Shares Max Price (£) Value (£)
22. Mar 19 Sell Richard Hutton Individual 22. Mar 19 22. Mar 19 -2,250 £18.61 £-41,872
X
Management checks
We assess Greggs's management by checking for:
  1. Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
  2. Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
  3. Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
  4. Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)
  5. Greggs has a total score of 0/6, this is not included on the snowflake, see the detailed checks below.


Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Should You Be Adding Greggs (LON:GRG) To Your Watchlist Today?

But as Peter Lynch said in One Up On Wall Street, 'Long shots almost never pay off.' If, on the other hand, you like companies that have revenue, and even earn profits, then you may well be interested in Greggs (LON:GRG). … See our latest analysis for Greggs How Fast Is Greggs Growing? … Greggs maintained stable EBIT margins over the last year, all while growing revenue 7.2% to UK£1.0b.

Simply Wall St -

What Did Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) CEO Take Home Last Year?

Roger Whiteside became the CEO of Greggs plc (LON:GRG) in 2013. … This report will, first, examine the CEO compensation levels in comparison to CEO compensation at companies of similar size. … How Does Roger Whiteside's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies?

Simply Wall St -

Want To Invest In Greggs plc (LON:GRG)? Here's How It Performed Lately

Today I will take a look at Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) most recent earnings update (29 December 2018) and compare these latest figures against its performance over the past few years, as well as how the rest of the hospitality industry performed. … How Did GRG's Recent Performance Stack Up Against Its Past. … GRG's trailing twelve-month earnings (from 29 December 2018) of UK£66m has.

Simply Wall St -

Interested In Greggs plc (LON:GRG)’s Upcoming UK£0.25 Dividend? You Have 3 Days Left

Investors who want to cash in on Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) upcoming dividend of UK£0.25 per share have only 3 days left to buy the shares before its ex-dividend date, 25 April 2019, in time for dividends payable on the 30 May 2019. … Has it consistently paid a stable dividend without missing a payment or drastically cutting payout? … Based on future earnings growth, will it be able to continue to payout dividend at the current rate

Simply Wall St -

What Do Analysts Think About Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Growth?

Looking at Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) earnings update in December 2018,. … with earnings expected to grow by 20% in the upcoming year … the past 5-year average growth rate of 15%

Simply Wall St -

Should We Worry About Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) P/E Ratio?

This article is written for those who want to get better at using price to earnings ratios (P/E ratios). … We'll show how you can use Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) P/E ratio to inform your assessment of the investment opportunity. … Price to Earnings Ratio = Price per Share ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)

Simply Wall St -

What Should You Know About Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Future?

The latest earnings announcement Greggs plc (LON:GRG) released in December 2018a … indicated … business

Simply Wall St -

At UK£18.60, Is Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Worth Looking At Closely?

led the LSE gainers with a relatively large price hike in the past couple of weeks. … With many analysts covering the mid-cap stock, we may expect any price-sensitive announcements have already been factored into the stock’s share price? … However, could the stock still be trading at a relatively cheap price.

Simply Wall St -

Brief Commentary On Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Fundamentals

As an investor, I look for investments which does not compromise one fundamental factor for another. … By this I mean, I look at stocks holistically, from their financial health to their future outlook.

Simply Wall St -

Is Greggs plc (LON:GRG) A Great Dividend Stock?

Dividends can be underrated but they form a large part of investment returns, playing an important role in compounding returns in the long run. … Historically, Greggs plc (LON:GRG) has been paying a dividend to shareholders. … Let's dig deeper into whether Greggs should have a place in your portfolio.

Simply Wall St -

Company Info

Description

Greggs plc operates as a bakery food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh and frozen bakery products, sandwiches, drinks, snacks, small cakes and muffins, breakfast products, and sweet bakery treats, as well as porridges, salads, and soups. The company sells its products through its shops in travel, leisure, and work-centered catchments; and franchised stores in motorway service stations and petrol forecourts. It is also involved in the property holding activities; and provision of trustees services. As of December 30, 2017, the company operated 1,854 shops, as well as had 202 franchised shops. Greggs plc was founded in 1939 and is based in Newcastle upon Tyne, the United Kingdom.

Details
Name: Greggs plc
GRG
Exchange: LSE
Founded: 1939
£2,114,507,635
100,595,035
Website: http://corporate.greggs.co.uk
Address: Greggs plc
Greggs House,
Quorum Business Park,
Newcastle upon Tyne,
Tyne and Wear, NE12 8BU,
United Kingdom
Listings
Exchange Symbol Ticker Symbol Security Exchange Country Currency Listed on
LSE GRG Ordinary Shares London Stock Exchange GB GBP 02. Jan 1992
OTCPK GGGS.F Ordinary Shares Pink Sheets LLC US USD 02. Jan 1992
DB 41G1 Ordinary Shares Deutsche Boerse AG DE EUR 02. Jan 1992
BATS-CHIXE GRGL Ordinary Shares BATS 'Chi-X Europe' GB GBP 02. Jan 1992
Number of employees
Current staff
Staff numbers
22,904
Greggs employees.
Industry
Restaurants
Consumer Services
Company Analysis and Financial Data Status
Area Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated: 2019/05/22 23:57
End of day share price update: 2019/05/22 00:00
Last estimates confirmation: 2019/05/21
Last earnings filing: 2019/04/16
Last earnings reported: 2018/12/29
Last annual earnings reported: 2018/12/29


All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.