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Greggs plc

LSE:GRG Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£1.7b

Greggs (GRG) Stock Overview

Operates as a food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. More details

GRG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation5/6
Future Growth1/6
Past Performance2/6
Financial Health4/6
Dividends2/6

Rewards

Trading at 47.5% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 7.44% per year

Earnings have grown 28% per year over the past 5 years

Trading at good value compared to peers and industry

Risk Analysis

High level of non-cash earnings

Earnings are forecast to decline by an average of 2% per year for the next 3 years

Dividend of 4.03% is not well covered by free cash flows


GRG Community Fair Values

Create Narrative

See what 114 others think this stock is worth. Follow their fair value or set your own to get alerts.

GRG logo
Greggs
AN
AnalystConsensusTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts

Upcoming Shop Openings And Tech Investments Will Extend Reach But May Pressure Margins

Key Takeaways Strategic expansion, supply chain investment, and menu innovation are set to boost revenue, profit margins, and operational capacity. Technological upgrades and marketing efforts enhance efficiency, customer engagement, and brand strength, driving sustained growth.
View narrative
UK£23.13
FV
26.0% undervalued intrinsic discount
8.30%
Revenue growth p.a.
1users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
71users have followed this narrative
about 13 hours ago author updated this narrative
GRG logo
Greggs
AN
AnalystHighTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts

Urban Growth And Digital Ordering Will Transform Quick Dining

Key Takeaways Rapid store expansion, supply chain upgrades, and digital growth position Greggs for significant revenue and margin outperformance relative to market expectations. Shifting consumer trends and an expanded product offering are likely to increase market share, support pricing power, and drive sustainable long-term sales growth.
View narrative
UK£30.40
FV
43.7% undervalued intrinsic discount
10.77%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
1users have followed this narrative
6 days ago author updated this narrative
GRG logo
Greggs
AN
AnalystLowTarget
Consensus Narrative from 11 Analysts

UK Wage Hikes And Tougher Regulations Will Shatter Margins

Key Takeaways Ongoing shifts in consumer preferences, regulatory risks, and increased competition threaten demand, brand perception, and Greggs' ability to sustain historical growth. Rising labor and operational costs, changing footfall patterns, and heavy capital investment pressure margins and challenge profitability across new and existing locations.
View narrative
UK£13.30
FV
28.6% overvalued intrinsic discount
8.33%
Revenue growth p.a.
0users have liked this narrative
0users have commented on this narrative
0users have followed this narrative
4 days ago author updated this narrative
View Greggs Community

Greggs plc Competitors

Price History & Performance

Summary of share price highs, lows and changes for Greggs
Historical stock prices
Current Share PriceUK£17.11
52 Week HighUK£32.50
52 Week LowUK£16.45
Beta1.42
1 Month Change-13.89%
3 Month Change-3.33%
1 Year Change-41.00%
3 Year Change-8.55%
5 Year Change9.33%
Change since IPO4,199.00%

Recent News & Updates

Greggs (LON:GRG) Knows How To Allocate Capital

Jun 28
Greggs (LON:GRG) Knows How To Allocate Capital

Is There An Opportunity With Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) 46% Undervaluation?

Jun 11
Is There An Opportunity With Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) 46% Undervaluation?

Here's Why Shareholders May Want To Be Cautious With Increasing Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) CEO Pay Packet

May 14
Here's Why Shareholders May Want To Be Cautious With Increasing Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) CEO Pay Packet

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

May 11
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Recent updates

Greggs (LON:GRG) Knows How To Allocate Capital

Jun 28
Greggs (LON:GRG) Knows How To Allocate Capital

Is There An Opportunity With Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) 46% Undervaluation?

Jun 11
Is There An Opportunity With Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) 46% Undervaluation?

Here's Why Shareholders May Want To Be Cautious With Increasing Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) CEO Pay Packet

May 14
Here's Why Shareholders May Want To Be Cautious With Increasing Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) CEO Pay Packet

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

May 11
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Greggs (LON:GRG) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues

Mar 11
Greggs (LON:GRG) Strong Profits May Be Masking Some Underlying Issues
author-image

Upcoming Shop Openings And Tech Investments Will Extend Reach But May Pressure Margins

Strategic expansion, supply chain investment, and menu innovation are set to boost revenue, profit margins, and operational capacity.

Greggs plc Just Beat EPS By 11%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Mar 06
Greggs plc Just Beat EPS By 11%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Investing Its Capital With Increasing Efficiency

Jan 25
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Investing Its Capital With Increasing Efficiency

Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Popularity With Investors Under Threat As Stock Sinks 25%

Jan 11
Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Popularity With Investors Under Threat As Stock Sinks 25%

Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Greggs plc (LON:GRG)

Jan 06
Estimating The Intrinsic Value Of Greggs plc (LON:GRG)

When Should You Buy Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Dec 21
When Should You Buy Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing

Oct 31
Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Popularity With Investors Is Under Threat From Overpricing

Investors Shouldn't Overlook Greggs' (LON:GRG) Impressive Returns On Capital

Oct 15
Investors Shouldn't Overlook Greggs' (LON:GRG) Impressive Returns On Capital

At UK£31.72, Is Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Worth Looking At Closely?

Sep 15
At UK£31.72, Is Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Worth Looking At Closely?

Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of £0.19

Aug 21
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of £0.19

Analysts Are Updating Their Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Estimates After Its Half-Yearly Results

Aug 01
Analysts Are Updating Their Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Estimates After Its Half-Yearly Results

If EPS Growth Is Important To You, Greggs (LON:GRG) Presents An Opportunity

Jun 04
If EPS Growth Is Important To You, Greggs (LON:GRG) Presents An Opportunity

There's Reason For Concern Over Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Price

May 22
There's Reason For Concern Over Greggs plc's (LON:GRG) Price

Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Reinvesting At Lower Rates Of Return

May 01
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Reinvesting At Lower Rates Of Return

Greggs plc Just Beat EPS By 9.3%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Apr 12
Greggs plc Just Beat EPS By 9.3%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Paying Out A Larger Dividend Than Last Year

Apr 05
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Paying Out A Larger Dividend Than Last Year

Is Now The Time To Look At Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Mar 28
Is Now The Time To Look At Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Greggs' (LON:GRG) Profits Appear To Have Quality Issues

Mar 12
Greggs' (LON:GRG) Profits Appear To Have Quality Issues

Greggs' (LON:GRG) Dividend Will Be Increased To £0.86

Mar 08
Greggs' (LON:GRG) Dividend Will Be Increased To £0.86

An Intrinsic Calculation For Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Suggests It's 29% Undervalued

Feb 10
An Intrinsic Calculation For Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Suggests It's 29% Undervalued

Is Now The Time To Put Greggs (LON:GRG) On Your Watchlist?

Jan 22
Is Now The Time To Put Greggs (LON:GRG) On Your Watchlist?

Investor Optimism Abounds Greggs plc (LON:GRG) But Growth Is Lacking

Dec 23
Investor Optimism Abounds Greggs plc (LON:GRG) But Growth Is Lacking

A Look Into Greggs' (LON:GRG) Impressive Returns On Capital

Nov 07
A Look Into Greggs' (LON:GRG) Impressive Returns On Capital

Do Greggs' (LON:GRG) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

Oct 23
Do Greggs' (LON:GRG) Earnings Warrant Your Attention?

Is Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Potentially Undervalued?

Sep 21
Is Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Potentially Undervalued?

Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Increasing Its Dividend To £0.16

Aug 29
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Increasing Its Dividend To £0.16

Greggs' (LON:GRG) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

Aug 04
Greggs' (LON:GRG) Upcoming Dividend Will Be Larger Than Last Year's

Why You Should Care About Greggs' (LON:GRG) Strong Returns On Capital

Jul 13
Why You Should Care About Greggs' (LON:GRG) Strong Returns On Capital

Should You Think About Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Now?

May 28
Should You Think About Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG) Now?

Investors Shouldn't Overlook The Favourable Returns On Capital At Greggs (LON:GRG)

Apr 13
Investors Shouldn't Overlook The Favourable Returns On Capital At Greggs (LON:GRG)

Is There Now An Opportunity In Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Jan 18
Is There Now An Opportunity In Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Here's What Greggs' (LON:GRG) Strong Returns On Capital Mean

Jan 05
Here's What Greggs' (LON:GRG) Strong Returns On Capital Mean

Should You Be Adding Greggs (LON:GRG) To Your Watchlist Today?

Nov 25
Should You Be Adding Greggs (LON:GRG) To Your Watchlist Today?

When Should You Buy Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Oct 15
When Should You Buy Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Here's What Greggs' (LON:GRG) Strong Returns On Capital Mean

Sep 28
Here's What Greggs' (LON:GRG) Strong Returns On Capital Mean

Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of £0.15

Aug 05
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Due To Pay A Dividend Of £0.15

Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Jul 04
Is It Too Late To Consider Buying Greggs plc (LON:GRG)?

Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Aiming To Keep Up Its Impressive Returns

May 04
Greggs (LON:GRG) Is Aiming To Keep Up Its Impressive Returns

Here's Why I Think Greggs (LON:GRG) Is An Interesting Stock

Mar 08
Here's Why I Think Greggs (LON:GRG) Is An Interesting Stock

At UK£26.68, Is It Time To Put Greggs plc (LON:GRG) On Your Watch List?

Jan 31
At UK£26.68, Is It Time To Put Greggs plc (LON:GRG) On Your Watch List?

Shareholder Returns

GRGGB HospitalityGB Market
7D2.1%0.5%0.8%
1Y-41.0%11.8%5.2%

Return vs Industry: GRG underperformed the UK Hospitality industry which returned 11.8% over the past year.

Return vs Market: GRG underperformed the UK Market which returned 5.2% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is GRG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
GRG volatility
GRG Average Weekly Movement6.4%
Hospitality Industry Average Movement4.4%
Market Average Movement5.2%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market11.5%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market2.9%

Stable Share Price: GRG has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months compared to the UK market.

Volatility Over Time: GRG's weekly volatility (6%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

FoundedEmployeesCEOWebsite
193933,146Roisin Curriecorporate.greggs.co.uk

Greggs plc operates as a food-on-the-go retailer in the United Kingdom. It offers a range of fresh bakery products, sandwiches, and drinks, as well as ready to drink canned products. The company is also involved in the property holding, non-trading, and trustee businesses.

Greggs plc Fundamentals Summary

How do Greggs's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
GRG fundamental statistics
Market capUK£1.74b
Earnings (TTM)UK£153.40m
Revenue (TTM)UK£2.01b
11.3x
P/E Ratio
0.9x
P/S Ratio

Is GRG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report (TTM)
GRG income statement (TTM)
RevenueUK£2.01b
Cost of RevenueUK£770.80m
Gross ProfitUK£1.24b
Other ExpensesUK£1.09b
EarningsUK£153.40m

Last Reported Earnings

Dec 28, 2024

Next Earnings Date

Jul 29, 2025

Earnings per share (EPS)1.51
Gross Margin61.74%
Net Profit Margin7.62%
Debt/Equity Ratio0%

How did GRG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

4.0%
Current Dividend Yield
46%
Payout Ratio

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2025/07/09 06:28
End of Day Share Price 2025/07/09 00:00
Earnings2024/12/28
Annual Earnings2024/12/28

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* Example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on Github.

Analyst Sources

Greggs plc is covered by 32 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard TaylorBarclays
Matthew AbrahamBerenberg
Nigel ParsonCanaccord Genuity