Greggs plc

LSE:GRG Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£2.8b

Greggs Valuation

Is GRG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

3/6

Valuation Score 3/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Peers

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Industry

  • Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GRG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GRG (£27.66) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£29.64)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GRG is trading below fair value, but not by a significant amount.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GRG?

Key metric: As GRG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GRG. This is calculated by dividing GRG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GRG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio20.4x
EarningsUK£137.30m
Market CapUK£2.81b

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GRG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GRG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PEEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average30x
ROO Deliveroo
43.3x40.7%UK£2.2b
MAB Mitchells & Butlers
9.8x7.0%UK£1.5b
DOM Domino's Pizza Group
15.7x5.8%UK£1.2b
SSPG SSP Group
51.3x36.3%UK£1.4b
GRG Greggs
20.4x6.0%UK£2.8b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x) compared to the peer average (30x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GRG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

1 CompanyPrice / EarningsEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
TAST Tasty
0.4x-75.9%US$2.36m
No more companies available in this PE range
GRG 20.4xIndustry Avg. 20.1xNo. of Companies5PE01224364860+
1 CompanyEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GRG is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (20.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GRG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GRG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio20.4x
Fair PE Ratio22.4x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (20.4x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GRG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£27.66
UK£33.08
+19.6%
11.3%UK£40.40UK£24.00n/a12
Dec ’25UK£27.02
UK£33.14
+22.7%
11.7%UK£40.40UK£24.00n/a11
Nov ’25UK£27.66
UK£33.32
+20.5%
10.4%UK£40.40UK£26.00n/a11
Oct ’25UK£29.42
UK£33.32
+13.3%
10.4%UK£40.40UK£26.00n/a11
Sep ’25UK£31.84
UK£33.14
+4.1%
10.7%UK£40.40UK£26.00n/a11
Aug ’25UK£31.40
UK£33.14
+5.5%
10.7%UK£40.40UK£26.00n/a11
Jul ’25UK£27.60
UK£32.36
+17.2%
11.5%UK£40.00UK£26.00n/a10
Jun ’25UK£29.40
UK£32.28
+9.8%
11.0%UK£40.00UK£26.00n/a11
May ’25UK£27.16
UK£32.04
+17.9%
12.8%UK£40.00UK£25.00n/a10
Apr ’25UK£28.74
UK£32.15
+11.8%
13.1%UK£40.00UK£25.00n/a10
Mar ’25UK£27.48
UK£32.04
+16.6%
13.1%UK£40.00UK£25.00n/a10
Feb ’25UK£26.18
UK£32.04
+22.4%
13.1%UK£40.00UK£25.00n/a10
Jan ’25UK£26.02
UK£32.02
+23.1%
13.0%UK£40.00UK£25.00n/a9
Dec ’24UK£24.72
UK£32.27
+30.5%
12.4%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£27.0210
Nov ’24UK£23.94
UK£32.27
+34.8%
12.4%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£27.6610
Oct ’24UK£24.48
UK£31.92
+30.4%
12.0%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£29.4211
Sep ’24UK£24.60
UK£31.61
+28.5%
11.8%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£31.8411
Aug ’24UK£25.50
UK£31.79
+24.7%
11.6%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£31.4011
Jul ’24UK£25.54
UK£31.79
+24.5%
11.6%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£27.6011
Jun ’24UK£27.14
UK£31.79
+17.1%
11.6%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£29.4011
May ’24UK£28.18
UK£31.61
+12.2%
11.8%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£27.1611
Apr ’24UK£27.74
UK£30.80
+11.0%
12.9%UK£40.00UK£25.00UK£28.7411
Mar ’24UK£27.46
UK£29.83
+8.6%
15.0%UK£38.45UK£20.00UK£27.4810
Feb ’24UK£27.00
UK£29.63
+9.7%
14.9%UK£38.45UK£20.00UK£26.1810
Jan ’24UK£23.46
UK£28.03
+19.5%
20.2%UK£38.45UK£18.00UK£26.0210
Dec ’23UK£23.36
UK£28.03
+20.0%
20.2%UK£38.45UK£18.00UK£24.7210

Analyst Forecast: Target price is less than 20% higher than the current share price.

Discover undervalued companies

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

7D

1Y

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/22 00:59
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/20 00:00
Earnings2024/06/29
Annual Earnings2023/12/30

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Greggs plc is covered by 33 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Richard TaylorBarclays
Robert ChantryBerenberg
Matthew AbrahamBerenberg