Greggs Valuation

Is GRG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of GRG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: GRG (£26.42) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£7.81)

Significantly Below Fair Value: GRG is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for GRG?

Key metric: As GRG is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for GRG. This is calculated by dividing GRG's market cap by their current earnings.
What is GRG's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	19.5x
Earnings	UK£137.30m
Market Cap	UK£2.69b

GRG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.5x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	11.1x
PEG Ratio	2.8x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does GRG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for GRG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	26.7x
ROO Deliveroo	43.4x	36.8%	UK£2.2b
DOM Domino's Pizza Group	17.2x	9.0%	UK£1.3b
MAB Mitchells & Butlers	31.3x	32.6%	UK£1.4b
JDW J D Wetherspoon	15x	12.1%	UK£717.6m
GRG Greggs	19.5x	7.0%	UK£2.7b

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: GRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the peer average (26.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does GRG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
TAST Tasty	0.4x	-75.9%	US$2.75m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: GRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (20.4x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is GRG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

GRG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	19.5x
Fair PE Ratio	22.6x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: GRG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (19.5x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (22.6x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst GRG forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	UK£26.42	UK£33.14 +25.4%	11.7%	UK£40.40	UK£24.00	n/a	11
Nov ’25	UK£27.66	UK£33.32 +20.5%	10.4%	UK£40.40	UK£26.00	n/a	11
Oct ’25	UK£29.42	UK£33.32 +13.3%	10.4%	UK£40.40	UK£26.00	n/a	11
Sep ’25	UK£31.84	UK£33.14 +4.1%	10.7%	UK£40.40	UK£26.00	n/a	11
Aug ’25	UK£31.40	UK£33.14 +5.5%	10.7%	UK£40.40	UK£26.00	n/a	11
Jul ’25	UK£27.60	UK£32.36 +17.2%	11.5%	UK£40.00	UK£26.00	n/a	10
Jun ’25	UK£29.40	UK£32.28 +9.8%	11.0%	UK£40.00	UK£26.00	n/a	11
May ’25	UK£27.16	UK£32.04 +17.9%	12.8%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	n/a	10
Apr ’25	UK£28.74	UK£32.15 +11.8%	13.1%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	n/a	10
Mar ’25	UK£27.48	UK£32.04 +16.6%	13.1%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	n/a	10
Feb ’25	UK£26.18	UK£32.04 +22.4%	13.1%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	n/a	10
Jan ’25	UK£26.02	UK£32.02 +23.1%	13.0%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	n/a	9
Dec ’24	UK£24.72	UK£32.27 +30.5%	12.4%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	n/a	10
Nov ’24	UK£23.94	UK£32.27 +34.8%	12.4%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	UK£27.66	10
Oct ’24	UK£24.48	UK£31.92 +30.4%	12.0%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	UK£29.42	11
Sep ’24	UK£24.60	UK£31.61 +28.5%	11.8%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	UK£31.84	11
Aug ’24	UK£25.50	UK£31.79 +24.7%	11.6%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	UK£31.40	11
Jul ’24	UK£25.54	UK£31.79 +24.5%	11.6%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	UK£27.60	11
Jun ’24	UK£27.14	UK£31.79 +17.1%	11.6%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	UK£29.40	11
May ’24	UK£28.18	UK£31.61 +12.2%	11.8%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	UK£27.16	11
Apr ’24	UK£27.74	UK£30.80 +11.0%	12.9%	UK£40.00	UK£25.00	UK£28.74	11
Mar ’24	UK£27.46	UK£29.83 +8.6%	15.0%	UK£38.45	UK£20.00	UK£27.48	10
Feb ’24	UK£27.00	UK£29.63 +9.7%	14.9%	UK£38.45	UK£20.00	UK£26.18	10
Jan ’24	UK£23.46	UK£28.03 +19.5%	20.2%	UK£38.45	UK£18.00	UK£26.02	10
Dec ’23	UK£23.36	UK£28.03 +20.0%	20.2%	UK£38.45	UK£18.00	UK£24.72	10
Nov ’23	UK£20.40	UK£28.03 +37.4%	20.2%	UK£38.45	UK£18.00	UK£23.94	10

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.