Young's Brewery Valuation

Q: What is the Fair Price of YNGA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

YNGA (£9.54) is trading above our estimate of [[fair value]] (£8.09)

Is YNGA undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

1/6

Valuation Score 1/6

Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of YNGA when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: YNGA (£9.54) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£8.09)

Significantly Below Fair Value: YNGA is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for YNGA?

Key metric: As YNGA is profitable we use its Price-To-Earnings Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Earnings ratio for YNGA. This is calculated by dividing YNGA's market cap by their current earnings.
What is YNGA's PE Ratio?
PE Ratio	43.2x
Earnings	UK£13.70m
Market Cap	UK£515.27m

YNGA key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	2x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	9x
PEG Ratio	1.4x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does YNGA's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PE ratio for YNGA vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	Forward PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	19.7x
FSTA Fuller Smith & Turner	19.9x	2.2%	UK£401.0m
JDW J D Wetherspoon	15.1x	12.1%	UK£737.2m
DOM Domino's Pizza Group	17.1x	9.0%	UK£1.3b
LGRS Loungers	26.7x	23.6%	UK£243.3m
YNGA Young's Brewery	43.2x	31.8%	UK£515.3m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: YNGA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.2x) compared to the peer average (19.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does YNGA's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the GB Hospitality Industry?

1 Company	Price / Earnings	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
TAST Tasty	0.4x	-75.9%	US$2.74m

No more companies available in this PE range

1 Company		Estimated Growth	Market Cap

No more companies

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: YNGA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.2x) compared to the UK Hospitality industry average (20.7x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is YNGA's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

YNGA PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	43.2x
Fair PE Ratio	26.7x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: YNGA is expensive based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (43.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (26.7x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst YNGA forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
Date	Share Price	Average 1Y Price Target	Dispersion	High	Low	1Y Actual price	Analysts
Current	UK£9.54	UK£13.74 +44.0%	4.1%	UK£14.50	UK£13.00	n/a	5
Nov ’25	UK£8.86	UK£13.74 +55.1%	4.1%	UK£14.50	UK£13.00	n/a	5
Oct ’25	UK£8.84	UK£13.74 +55.4%	4.1%	UK£14.50	UK£13.00	n/a	5
Sep ’25	UK£9.42	UK£13.74 +45.9%	4.1%	UK£14.50	UK£13.00	n/a	5
Aug ’25	UK£10.15	UK£13.74 +35.4%	4.1%	UK£14.50	UK£13.00	n/a	5
Jul ’25	UK£9.64	UK£13.74 +42.5%	4.1%	UK£14.50	UK£13.00	n/a	5
Jun ’25	UK£10.10	UK£13.80 +36.6%	3.7%	UK£14.50	UK£13.00	n/a	5
May ’25	UK£9.68	UK£14.23 +47.0%	3.7%	UK£14.90	UK£13.50	n/a	4
Apr ’25	UK£9.78	UK£14.13 +44.5%	4.1%	UK£14.90	UK£13.50	n/a	3
Mar ’25	UK£10.55	UK£14.45 +37.0%	3.1%	UK£14.90	UK£14.00	n/a	2
Feb ’25	UK£10.30	UK£14.45 +40.3%	3.1%	UK£14.90	UK£14.00	n/a	2
Jan ’25	UK£10.90	UK£14.45 +32.6%	3.1%	UK£14.90	UK£14.00	n/a	2
Dec ’24	UK£10.85	UK£16.53 +52.4%	11.2%	UK£18.40	UK£14.00	n/a	3
Nov ’24	UK£10.40	UK£16.23 +56.1%	9.1%	UK£18.40	UK£13.60	UK£8.86	6
Oct ’24	UK£10.70	UK£16.23 +51.7%	9.1%	UK£18.40	UK£13.60	UK£8.84	6
Sep ’24	UK£11.60	UK£16.23 +39.9%	9.1%	UK£18.40	UK£13.60	UK£9.42	6
Aug ’24	UK£11.65	UK£16.23 +39.3%	9.1%	UK£18.40	UK£13.60	UK£10.15	6
Jul ’24	UK£12.00	UK£16.23 +35.3%	9.1%	UK£18.40	UK£13.60	UK£9.64	6
Jun ’24	UK£11.80	UK£15.80 +33.9%	7.7%	UK£17.20	UK£13.60	UK£10.10	5
May ’24	UK£11.45	UK£15.46 +35.0%	9.9%	UK£17.20	UK£12.60	UK£9.68	5
Apr ’24	UK£10.26	UK£15.46 +50.7%	9.9%	UK£17.20	UK£12.60	UK£9.78	5
Mar ’24	UK£11.34	UK£15.46 +36.3%	9.9%	UK£17.20	UK£12.60	UK£10.55	5
Feb ’24	UK£10.14	UK£15.46 +52.5%	9.9%	UK£17.20	UK£12.60	UK£10.30	5
Jan ’24	UK£10.24	UK£15.33 +49.7%	11.0%	UK£17.20	UK£12.60	UK£10.90	4
Dec ’23	UK£10.66	UK£15.33 +43.8%	11.0%	UK£17.20	UK£12.60	UK£10.85	4
Nov ’23	UK£10.10	UK£16.03 +58.7%	4.9%	UK£17.20	UK£15.00	UK£10.40	4

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price and analysts are within a statistically confident range of agreement.