Greggs plc Just Beat EPS By 9.3%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

As you might know, Greggs plc (LON:GRG) recently reported its annual numbers. The result was positive overall - although revenues of UK£1.8b were in line with what the analysts predicted, Greggs surprised by delivering a statutory profit of UK£1.39 per share, modestly greater than expected. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Greggs

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus from Greggs' eleven analysts is for revenues of UK£2.01b in 2024. This would reflect a meaningful 11% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to reduce 3.3% to UK£1.36 in the same period. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of UK£2.01b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£1.36 in 2024. So it's pretty clear that, although the analysts have updated their estimates, there's been no major change in expectations for the business following the latest results.

The analysts reconfirmed their price target of UK£32.20, showing that the business is executing well and in line with expectations. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic Greggs analyst has a price target of UK£40.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£25.00. Analysts definitely have varying views on the business, but the spread of estimates is not wide enough in our view to suggest that extreme outcomes could await Greggs shareholders.

Of course, another way to look at these forecasts is to place them into context against the industry itself. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 11% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 12% annual growth over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to see their revenues grow 7.5% per year. So it's pretty clear that Greggs is forecast to grow substantially faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£32.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for Greggs going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here..

You still need to take note of risks, for example - Greggs has 1 warning sign we think you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.