Update shared on 22 Nov 2025
Fair value Decreased 5.77%The analyst price target for Greggs has been lowered, falling by approximately £200 to £400, as analysts cite slightly reduced revenue growth forecasts and minor adjustments to profit margin expectations.
Analyst Commentary
Recent analyst revisions reflect both ongoing optimism and emerging caution around Greggs' near-term prospects. Despite lowered price targets, the overall direction signals a balanced perspective on growth and valuation.
Bullish Takeaways- Bullish analysts maintain positive recommendations on Greggs, signaling continued confidence in long-term strategic execution.
- The company’s robust market positioning and brand strength continue to support expectations for above-industry revenue growth.
- Refinements to cost management and operational efficiency are expected to help defend profit margins, even as short-term forecasts moderate.
- Solid consumer demand fundamentals are seen as supportive for Greggs’ store expansion and digital sales initiatives.
- Lowered price targets reflect tempered expectations for near-term revenue growth and some pressure on profit margins.
- Concerns persist over inflationary headwinds and input costs, which could affect profitability in the upcoming quarters.
- Analysts highlight potential challenges to delivery on expansion plans if economic conditions remain volatile.
- Cautious analysts note that current valuation leaves limited room for disappointment if growth slows further.
What's in the News
- Greggs plc announced plans for approximately 120 net shop openings in 2025. The company also highlighted a strong pipeline continuing into the fourth quarter and 2026 (Key Developments).
Valuation Changes
- Fair Value Estimate has decreased from £20.66 to £19.46, reflecting a modest downward revision.
- Discount Rate has fallen slightly, moving from 9.51 percent to 9.33 percent.
- Revenue Growth Forecast has dipped from 7.42 percent to 7.33 percent. This indicates a minor moderation in growth expectations.
- Net Profit Margin Estimate has edged lower, changing from 5.39 percent to 5.38 percent.
- Future P/E Ratio has decreased from 19.91x to 18.74x. This suggests a reduced earnings multiple outlook.
Disclaimer
AnalystConsensusTarget is a tool utilizing a Large Language Model (LLM) that ingests data on consensus price targets, forecasted revenue and earnings figures, as well as the transcripts of earnings calls to produce qualitative analysis. The narratives produced by AnalystConsensusTarget are general in nature and are based solely on analyst data and publicly-available material published by the respective companies. These scenarios are not indicative of the company's future performance and are exploratory in nature. Simply Wall St has no position in the company(s) mentioned. Simply Wall St may provide the securities issuer or related entities with website advertising services for a fee, on an arm's length basis. These relationships have no impact on the way we conduct our business, the content we host, or how our content is served to users. The price targets and estimates used are consensus data, and do not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and they do not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Note that AnalystConsensusTarget's analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.