Greggs plc (LON:GRG), might not be a large cap stock, but it received a lot of attention from a substantial price movement on the LSE over the last few months, increasing to UK£25.79 at one point, and dropping to the lows of UK£18.08. Some share price movements can give investors a better opportunity to enter into the stock, and potentially buy at a lower price. A question to answer is whether Greggs' current trading price of UK£18.21 reflective of the actual value of the mid-cap? Or is it currently undervalued, providing us with the opportunity to buy? Let’s take a look at Greggs’s outlook and value based on the most recent financial data to see if there are any catalysts for a price change.
View our latest analysis for Greggs
What is Greggs worth?
The share price seems sensible at the moment according to my price multiple model, where I compare the company's price-to-earnings ratio to the industry average. In this instance, I’ve used the price-to-earnings (PE) ratio given that there is not enough information to reliably forecast the stock’s cash flows. I find that Greggs’s ratio of 15.75x is trading slightly above its industry peers’ ratio of 14.16x, which means if you buy Greggs today, you’d be paying a relatively reasonable price for it. And if you believe Greggs should be trading in this range, then there isn’t really any room for the share price grow beyond the levels of other industry peers over the long-term. Is there another opportunity to buy low in the future? Since Greggs’s share price is quite volatile, we could potentially see it sink lower (or rise higher) in the future, giving us another chance to buy. This is based on its high beta, which is a good indicator for how much the stock moves relative to the rest of the market.
What does the future of Greggs look like?
Future outlook is an important aspect when you’re looking at buying a stock, especially if you are an investor looking for growth in your portfolio. Although value investors would argue that it’s the intrinsic value relative to the price that matter the most, a more compelling investment thesis would be high growth potential at a cheap price. Greggs' earnings growth are expected to be in the teens in the upcoming years, indicating a solid future ahead. This should lead to robust cash flows, feeding into a higher share value.
What this means for you:
Are you a shareholder? It seems like the market has already priced in GRG’s positive outlook, with shares trading around industry price multiples. However, there are also other important factors which we haven’t considered today, such as the track record of its management team. Have these factors changed since the last time you looked at GRG? Will you have enough confidence to invest in the company should the price drop below the industry PE ratio?
Are you a potential investor? If you’ve been keeping an eye on GRG, now may not be the most optimal time to buy, given it is trading around industry price multiples. However, the optimistic forecast is encouraging for GRG, which means it’s worth diving deeper into other factors such as the strength of its balance sheet, in order to take advantage of the next price drop.
In light of this, if you'd like to do more analysis on the company, it's vital to be informed of the risks involved. You'd be interested to know, that we found 3 warning signs for Greggs and you'll want to know about these.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About LSE:GRG
Good value with proven track record and pays a dividend.
