AIM:TRB

Stock Analysis Report

Executive Summary

Tribal Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides education related systems and solutions, and educational consultancy services in the United Kingdom, the Asia Pacific, North America, and internationally.

Rewards

Trading at 45.6% below its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 40.85% per year

Earnings have grown 43.9% per year over the past 5 years

Risk Analysis

Large one-off items impacting financial results



Snowflake Analysis

High growth potential with excellent balance sheet.


Similar Companies

Share Price & News

How has Tribal Group's share price performed over time and what events caused price changes?


Latest Share Price and Events

Stable Share Price: TRB has not had significant price volatility in the past 3 months.


Market Performance


7 Day Return

0.7%

TRB

0.8%

GB Consumer Services

-0.4%

GB Market


1 Year Return

-5.0%

TRB

35.7%

GB Consumer Services

6.6%

GB Market

Return vs Industry: TRB underperformed the UK Consumer Services industry which returned 35.1% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TRB underperformed the UK Market which returned 6.2% over the past year.


Shareholder returns

TRBIndustryMarket
7 Day0.7%0.8%-0.4%
30 Day-1.0%5.7%-1.7%
90 Day21.1%16.0%5.4%
1 Year-3.5%-5.0%37.5%35.7%12.4%6.6%
3 Year-10.6%-13.0%7.3%1.4%18.5%3.4%
5 Year-43.6%-61.0%-40.6%-55.7%35.8%4.7%

Price Volatility Vs. Market

How volatile is Tribal Group's share price compared to the market and industry in the last 5 years?


Simply Wall St News

Valuation

Is Tribal Group undervalued compared to its fair value and its price relative to the market?

45.7%

Undervalued compared to fair value


Share Price vs. Fair Value

Below Fair Value: TRB (£0.72) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£1.32)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TRB is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Price To Earnings Ratio

PE vs Industry: TRB is poor value based on its PE Ratio (28.5x) compared to the Consumer Services industry average (18.3x).

PE vs Market: TRB is poor value based on its PE Ratio (28.5x) compared to the UK market (18.5x).


Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: TRB is good value based on its PEG Ratio (0.7x)


Price to Book Ratio

PB vs Industry: TRB is overvalued based on its PB Ratio (3.7x) compared to the GB Consumer Services industry average (3.6x).


Next Steps

Future Growth

How is Tribal Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 2 analysts?

40.9%

Forecasted annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts


Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TRB's forecast earnings growth (40.9% per year) is above the savings rate (0.5%).

Earnings vs Market: TRB's earnings (40.9% per year) are forecast to grow faster than the UK market (12.2% per year).

High Growth Earnings: earnings are expected to grow significantly over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: TRB's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (3.5% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TRB's revenue (3.8% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.


Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts


Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TRB's Return on Equity is forecast to be high in 3 years time (20.7%)


Next Steps

Past Performance

How has Tribal Group performed over the past 5 years?

43.9%

Historical annual earnings growth


Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TRB has a large one-off loss of £2.5M impacting its June 30 2019 financial results.

Growing Profit Margin: TRB's current net profit margins (6.3%) are higher than last year (4.7%).


Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TRB has become profitable over the past 5 years, growing earnings by 43.9% per year.

Accelerating Growth: TRB's earnings growth over the past year (25.6%) is below its 5-year average (43.9% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: TRB earnings growth over the past year (25.6%) underperformed the Consumer Services industry 43.5%.


Return on Equity

High ROE: TRB's Return on Equity (13.1%) is considered low.


Return on Assets


Return on Capital Employed


Next Steps

Financial Health

How is Tribal Group's financial position?


Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: TRB's short term assets (£26.5M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£34.6M).

Long Term Liabilities: TRB's short term assets (£26.5M) exceed its long term liabilities (£8.0M).


Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: TRB's debt to equity ratio (2.6%) is considered satisfactory.

Reducing Debt: TRB's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 52% to 2.6% over the past 5 years.


Balance Sheet

Inventory Level: TRB has a low level of unsold assets or inventory.

Debt Coverage by Assets: TRB's debt is covered by short term assets (assets are 26.9x debt).


Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: TRB is profitable, therefore cash runway is not a concern.

Forecast Cash Runway: TRB is profitable, therefore cash runway is not a concern.


Next Steps

Dividend

What is Tribal Group's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

1.53%

Current Dividend Yield


Dividend Yield vs Market

company1.5%marketbottom25%1.8%markettop25%5.1%industryaverage2.2%forecastin3Years1.9%

Current dividend yield vs market & industry

Notable Dividend: TRB's dividend (1.53%) isn’t notable compared to the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.82%).

High Dividend: TRB's dividend (1.53%) is low compared to the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.15%).


Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TRB's dividend payments have been volatile in the past 10 years.

Growing Dividend: TRB's dividend payments have fallen over the past 10 years.


Current Payout to Shareholders

Dividend Coverage: With its reasonably low payout ratio (43.7%), TRB's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.


Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: TRB's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (27.2% payout ratio).


Next Steps

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

1.2yrs

Average management tenure


CEO

Mark Pickett 0

1.3yrs

Tenure

UK£673,331

Compensation

Mr. Mark Pickett has been the Company Secretary and Director at Tribal Group plc since June 30, 2016 and served as Acting Chief Executive Officer from October 5, 2018 until March 18, 2019 and now serves as ...


CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Mark's total compensation ($USD871.66K) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD597.90K).

Compensation vs Earnings: Mark's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.


Leadership Team

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Mark Pickett
CEO, Company Secretary & Director1.3yrsUK£673.33k0.34% £497.4k
Paul Simpson
Acting Chief Financial Officer0.9yrsno datano data
Mike Cope
Chief Technology Officer1.1yrsno datano data
Mike Beech
Marketing & Product Management Director0yrsno datano data
Chloe Payne
Director of HR0yrsno datano data
Janet Tomlinson
Managing Director of Education Services0yrsno datano data
Jonathan Baldwin
Managing Director of Higher Education0yrsno datano data
Mark Wilson
Managing Director of EMEA Region3.2yrsno datano data
Peter Croft
Managing Director of APAC Region0yrsno datano data

1.2yrs

Average Tenure

Experienced Management: TRB's management team is not considered experienced ( 1.2 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.


Board Members

NamePositionTenureCompensationOwnership
Mark Pickett
CEO, Company Secretary & Director1.3yrsUK£673.33k0.34% £497.4k
Roger McDowell
Senior Independent Non-Executive Director4.3yrsUK£321.19k1.95% £2.9m
Richard Last
Non-Executive Chairman4.3yrsUK£401.09k1.95% £2.9m
Nigel Halkes
Non-Executive Director0.08yrsno data0.0070% £10.2k

4.0yrs

Average Tenure

63yo

Average Age

Experienced Board: TRB's board of directors are considered experienced (4 years average tenure).


Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?


Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.


Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.


Top Shareholders

Company Information

Tribal Group plc's company bio, employee growth, exchange listings and data sources


Key Information

  • Name: Tribal Group plc
  • Ticker: TRB
  • Exchange: AIM
  • Founded: 1999
  • Industry: Education Services
  • Sector: Consumer Services
  • Market Cap: UK£145.926m
  • Shares outstanding: 203.38m
  • Website: https://www.tribalgroup.com

Number of Employees


Location

  • Tribal Group plc
  • Kings Orchard
  • One Queen Street
  • Bristol
  • BS2 0HQ
  • United Kingdom

Listings

TickerExchangePrimary SecuritySecurity TypeCountryCurrencyListed on
TRBAIM (London Stock Exchange AIM Market)YesOrdinary SharesGBGBPFeb 2001

Biography

Tribal Group plc, together with its subsidiaries, provides education related systems and solutions, and educational consultancy services in the United Kingdom, the Asia Pacific, North America, and internationally. The company operates through three segments: Student Management Systems (SMS), i-graduate, and Quality Assurance Solutions (QAS). The SMS segment offers software, and maintenance and support services; and deploys and configures software for its customers. The i-graduate segment provides a portfolio of performance enhancement tools and services, such as analytics, software solutions, and facilities and asset management. The QAS segment offers inspection and review services that support the assessment of an educational delivery. It serves the universities, colleges, schools, training providers, employers, and government and state bodies. Tribal Group plc has a strategic partnership with Microsoft to expand the access of educational institutions and students to student information systems. Tribal Group plc was founded in 1999 and is based in Bristol, the United Kingdom. 


Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

All financial data provided by Standard & Poor's Capital IQ.
DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2020/02/20 20:47
End of Day Share Price2020/02/20 00:00
Earnings2019/06/30
Annual Earnings2018/12/31


Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.