Investors in Naked Wines (LON:WINE) from three years ago are still down 85%, even after 16% gain this past week

It's nice to see the Naked Wines plc (LON:WINE) share price up 16% in a week. But the last three years have seen a terrible decline. Indeed, the share price is down a whopping 85% in the last three years. So it's about time shareholders saw some gains. Only time will tell if the company can sustain the turnaround. While a drop like that is definitely a body blow, money isn't as important as health and happiness.

Although the past week has been more reassuring for shareholders, they're still in the red over the last three years, so let's see if the underlying business has been responsible for the decline.

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Because Naked Wines made a loss in the last twelve months, we think the market is probably more focussed on revenue and revenue growth, at least for now. When a company doesn't make profits, we'd generally hope to see good revenue growth. As you can imagine, fast revenue growth, when maintained, often leads to fast profit growth.

In the last three years Naked Wines saw its revenue shrink by 8.2% per year. That's not what investors generally want to see. The share price fall of 23% (per year, over three years) is a stern reminder that money-losing companies are expected to grow revenue. We're generally averse to companies with declining revenues, but we're not alone in that. There's no more than a snowball's chance in hell that share price will head back to its old highs, in the short term.

The image below shows how earnings and revenue have tracked over time (if you click on the image you can see greater detail).

It's probably worth noting that the CEO is paid less than the median at similar sized companies. It's always worth keeping an eye on CEO pay, but a more important question is whether the company will grow earnings throughout the years. You can see what analysts are predicting for Naked Wines in this interactive graph of future profit estimates.

A Different Perspective

Naked Wines shareholders are down 5.0% for the year, but the market itself is up 11%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. However, the loss over the last year isn't as bad as the 12% per annum loss investors have suffered over the last half decade. We'd need to see some sustained improvements in the key metrics before we could muster much enthusiasm. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Naked Wines better, we need to consider many other factors. Case in point: We've spotted 2 warning signs for Naked Wines you should be aware of, and 1 of them is potentially serious.

Of course Naked Wines may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on British exchanges.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.