Naked Wines plc

AIM:WINE Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£39.4m

Naked Wines Valuation

Is WINE undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of WINE when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: WINE (£0.53) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£2.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: WINE is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for WINE?

Key metric: As WINE is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for WINE. This is calculated by dividing WINE's market cap by their current revenue.
What is WINE's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.1x
SalesUK£290.41m
Market CapUK£39.37m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does WINE's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for WINE vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
VINO Virgin Wines UK
0.3x3.5%UK£19.8m
CBOX Cake Box Holdings
2x8.1%UK£77.0m
OCDO Ocado Group
0.8x8.4%UK£2.5b
SBRY J Sainsbury
0.2x1.9%UK£5.9b
WINE Naked Wines
0.1x-8.6%UK£39.4m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: WINE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does WINE's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Retailing Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
WINE 0.1xIndustry Avg. 0.3xNo. of Companies13PS00.40.81.21.62+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: WINE is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the European Consumer Retailing industry average (0.3x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is WINE's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

WINE PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.1x
Fair PS Ratio0.1x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: WINE is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.1x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst WINE forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£0.53
UK£1.15
+117.0%
54.7%UK£2.00UK£0.50n/a3
Nov ’25UK£0.56
UK£1.15
+105.7%
54.7%UK£2.00UK£0.50n/a3
Oct ’25UK£0.55
UK£1.15
+110.2%
54.7%UK£2.00UK£0.50n/a3
Sep ’25UK£0.52
UK£1.15
+121.2%
54.7%UK£2.00UK£0.50n/a3
Aug ’25UK£0.55
UK£1.17
+112.7%
52.4%UK£2.00UK£0.55n/a3
Jul ’25UK£0.61
UK£1.17
+91.3%
52.4%UK£2.00UK£0.55n/a3
Jun ’25UK£0.60
UK£1.17
+94.4%
52.4%UK£2.00UK£0.55n/a3
May ’25UK£0.54
UK£1.17
+116.0%
52.4%UK£2.00UK£0.55n/a3
Apr ’25UK£0.56
UK£1.17
+107.6%
52.4%UK£2.00UK£0.55n/a3
Mar ’25UK£0.64
UK£1.17
+81.2%
52.4%UK£2.00UK£0.55n/a3
Feb ’25UK£0.68
UK£1.17
+72.8%
52.4%UK£2.00UK£0.55n/a3
Jan ’25UK£0.55
UK£1.02
+84.8%
68.4%UK£1.90UK£0.20n/a3
Dec ’24UK£0.34
UK£1.12
+224.6%
62.7%UK£1.90UK£0.20n/a3
Nov ’24UK£0.44
UK£1.16
+165.0%
67.5%UK£2.40UK£0.35UK£0.564
Oct ’24UK£0.56
UK£1.20
+114.3%
62.3%UK£2.40UK£0.50UK£0.554
Sep ’24UK£0.71
UK£1.13
+59.6%
30.0%UK£1.60UK£0.80UK£0.523
Aug ’24UK£0.72
UK£1.13
+57.4%
30.0%UK£1.60UK£0.80UK£0.553
Jul ’24UK£0.94
UK£1.70
+80.1%
31.4%UK£2.60UK£1.30UK£0.614
Jun ’24UK£1.11
UK£1.70
+53.2%
31.4%UK£2.60UK£1.30UK£0.604
May ’24UK£1.13
UK£1.70
+50.2%
31.4%UK£2.60UK£1.30UK£0.544
Apr ’24UK£1.03
UK£1.70
+65.9%
31.4%UK£2.60UK£1.30UK£0.564
Mar ’24UK£1.10
UK£1.76
+60.3%
28.0%UK£2.60UK£1.30UK£0.645
Feb ’24UK£1.29
UK£1.76
+36.5%
28.0%UK£2.60UK£1.30UK£0.685
Jan ’24UK£1.27
UK£1.75
+38.0%
30.3%UK£2.60UK£1.10UK£0.555
Dec ’23UK£0.93
UK£1.66
+78.9%
31.7%UK£2.60UK£1.10UK£0.346
Nov ’23UK£1.07
UK£2.70
+151.9%
62.1%UK£6.30UK£1.20UK£0.447

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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