Ocado Group plc

LSE:OCDO Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£2.5b

Ocado Group Valuation

Is OCDO undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

0/6

Valuation Score 0/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of OCDO when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: OCDO (£3.05) is trading above our estimate of fair value (£2.28)

Significantly Below Fair Value: OCDO is trading above our estimate of fair value.

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for OCDO?

Key metric: As OCDO is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for OCDO. This is calculated by dividing OCDO's market cap by their current revenue.
What is OCDO's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.8x
SalesUK£3.00b
Market CapUK£2.51b

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does OCDO's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for OCDO vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average0.8x
SBRY J Sainsbury
0.2x1.9%UK£6.4b
MKS Marks and Spencer Group
0.6x3.3%UK£7.9b
TSCO Tesco
0.4x2.1%UK£25.1b
CBOX Cake Box Holdings
2x8.1%UK£78.0m
OCDO Ocado Group
0.8x8.0%UK£2.5b

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: OCDO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the peer average (0.8x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does OCDO's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Consumer Retailing Industry?

10 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
OCDO 0.8xIndustry Avg. 0.4xNo. of Companies13PS00.40.81.21.62+
10 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: OCDO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the European Consumer Retailing industry average (0.4x).

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is OCDO's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

OCDO PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.8x
Fair PS Ratio0.4x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: OCDO is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.8x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.4x).

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst OCDO forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£3.05
UK£4.64
+52.1%
42.9%UK£9.20UK£2.35n/a13
Dec ’25UK£3.16
UK£4.68
+48.1%
42.1%UK£9.20UK£2.35n/a13
Nov ’25UK£3.50
UK£4.68
+33.6%
42.1%UK£9.20UK£2.35n/a13
Oct ’25UK£3.94
UK£4.51
+14.4%
44.1%UK£9.20UK£2.30n/a14
Sep ’25UK£3.41
UK£6.27
+83.9%
105.3%UK£29.00UK£2.30n/a14
Aug ’25UK£4.02
UK£6.56
+63.3%
103.0%UK£29.00UK£2.35n/a13
Jul ’25UK£2.88
UK£6.76
+134.7%
97.7%UK£29.00UK£2.15n/a14
Jun ’25UK£3.74
UK£7.20
+92.7%
87.1%UK£29.00UK£2.30n/a15
May ’25UK£3.43
UK£7.42
+116.1%
83.5%UK£29.00UK£2.30n/a15
Apr ’25UK£4.55
UK£7.85
+72.5%
79.4%UK£29.00UK£2.30n/a15
Mar ’25UK£4.76
UK£8.09
+69.9%
75.2%UK£29.00UK£3.75n/a15
Feb ’25UK£5.16
UK£8.40
+62.7%
73.7%UK£29.00UK£3.90n/a15
Jan ’25UK£7.58
UK£8.79
+15.9%
73.5%UK£29.00UK£3.90n/a15
Dec ’24UK£5.94
UK£8.78
+47.8%
74.3%UK£29.00UK£3.90UK£3.1615
Nov ’24UK£4.76
UK£9.03
+89.8%
71.9%UK£29.00UK£3.90UK£3.5015
Oct ’24UK£6.00
UK£9.29
+54.7%
68.3%UK£29.00UK£3.90UK£3.9415
Sep ’24UK£8.72
UK£9.08
+4.2%
67.8%UK£29.00UK£3.90UK£3.4116
Aug ’24UK£9.38
UK£9.08
-3.1%
67.8%UK£29.00UK£3.90UK£4.0216
Jul ’24UK£5.68
UK£8.12
+42.9%
79.4%UK£29.00UK£3.10UK£2.8817
Jun ’24UK£3.52
UK£8.20
+132.7%
78.0%UK£29.00UK£3.55UK£3.7417
May ’24UK£5.05
UK£9.16
+81.3%
76.4%UK£29.00UK£3.55UK£3.4313
Apr ’24UK£5.35
UK£9.58
+79.1%
69.3%UK£29.00UK£3.55UK£4.5514
Mar ’24UK£5.30
UK£9.92
+87.4%
61.4%UK£29.00UK£3.75UK£4.7616
Feb ’24UK£6.60
UK£10.08
+52.7%
61.9%UK£29.00UK£3.75UK£5.1616
Jan ’24UK£6.17
UK£9.81
+59.1%
59.5%UK£29.00UK£3.90UK£7.5818
Dec ’23UK£6.65
UK£9.79
+47.3%
59.7%UK£29.00UK£3.90UK£5.9418

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

DataLast Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis2024/12/17 02:26
End of Day Share Price 2024/12/17 00:00
Earnings2024/06/02
Annual Earnings2023/12/03

Data Sources

The data used in our company analysis is from S&P Global Market Intelligence LLC. The following data is used in our analysis model to generate this report. Data is normalised which can introduce a delay from the source being available.

PackageDataTimeframeExample US Source *
Company Financials10 years
  • Income statement
  • Cash flow statement
  • Balance sheet
Analyst Consensus Estimates+3 years
  • Forecast financials
  • Analyst price targets
Market Prices30 years
  • Stock prices
  • Dividends, Splits and Actions
Ownership10 years
  • Top shareholders
  • Insider trading
Management10 years
  • Leadership team
  • Board of directors
Key Developments10 years
  • Company announcements

* example for US securities, for non-US equivalent regulatory forms and sources are used.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

Analysis Model and Snowflake

Details of the analysis model used to generate this report is available on our Github page, we also have guides on how to use our reports and tutorials on Youtube.

Learn about the world class team who designed and built the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Industry and Sector Metrics

Our industry and section metrics are calculated every 6 hours by Simply Wall St, details of our process are available on .

Analyst Sources

Ocado Group plc is covered by 38 analysts. 12 of those analysts submitted the estimates of revenue or earnings used as inputs to our report. Analysts submissions are updated throughout the day.

AnalystInstitution
Pierre-Yves GauthierAlphaValue
Philip DorganAltium Capital Limited
James AnsteadBarclays