Vistry Group PLC Just Missed Earnings And Its Revenue Numbers Were Weaker Than Expected

Shareholders might have noticed that Vistry Group PLC (LON:VTY) filed its interim result this time last week. The early response was not positive, with shares down 5.4% to UK£5.89 in the past week. Results look mixed - while revenue fell marginally short of analyst estimates at UK£1.6b, statutory earnings were in line with expectations, at UK£0.22 per share. Earnings are an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance, look at what the analysts are forecasting for next year, and see if there's been a change in sentiment towards the company. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

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Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for Vistry Group from 13 analysts is for revenues of UK£4.12b in 2025. If met, it would imply a decent 12% increase on its revenue over the past 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to bounce 345% to UK£0.50. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of UK£4.19b and earnings per share (EPS) of UK£0.53 in 2025. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the minor downgrade to their earnings per share numbers for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for Vistry Group

The consensus price target held steady at UK£6.21, with the analysts seemingly voting that their lower forecast earnings are not expected to lead to a lower stock price in the foreseeable future. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Vistry Group analyst has a price target of UK£7.73 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£4.50. This shows there is still a bit of diversity in estimates, but analysts don't appear to be totally split on the stock as though it might be a success or failure situation.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. It's clear from the latest estimates that Vistry Group's rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 25% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 noticeably faster than its historical growth of 17% p.a. over the past five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in a similar industry are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% per year. It seems obvious that, while the growth outlook is brighter than the recent past, the analysts also expect Vistry Group to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for Vistry Group. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was no real change to the consensus price target, suggesting that the intrinsic value of the business has not undergone any major changes with the latest estimates.

Following on from that line of thought, we think that the long-term prospects of the business are much more relevant than next year's earnings. We have forecasts for Vistry Group going out to 2027, and you can see them free on our platform here.

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for Vistry Group that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.