Is Cairn Homes plc's (LON:CRN) Stock's Recent Performance Being Led By Its Attractive Financial Prospects?

Cairn Homes (LON:CRN) has had a great run on the share market with its stock up by a significant 25% over the last three months. Given the company's impressive performance, we decided to study its financial indicators more closely as a company's financial health over the long-term usually dictates market outcomes. Specifically, we decided to study Cairn Homes' ROE in this article.

Return on Equity or ROE is a test of how effectively a company is growing its value and managing investors’ money. In other words, it is a profitability ratio which measures the rate of return on the capital provided by the company's shareholders.

View our latest analysis for Cairn Homes

How Do You Calculate Return On Equity?

Return on equity can be calculated by using the formula:

Return on Equity = Net Profit (from continuing operations) ÷ Shareholders' Equity

So, based on the above formula, the ROE for Cairn Homes is:

15% = €112m ÷ €758m (Based on the trailing twelve months to June 2024).

The 'return' is the income the business earned over the last year. Another way to think of that is that for every £1 worth of equity, the company was able to earn £0.15 in profit.

What Is The Relationship Between ROE And Earnings Growth?

So far, we've learned that ROE is a measure of a company's profitability. We now need to evaluate how much profit the company reinvests or "retains" for future growth which then gives us an idea about the growth potential of the company. Assuming all else is equal, companies that have both a higher return on equity and higher profit retention are usually the ones that have a higher growth rate when compared to companies that don't have the same features.

A Side By Side comparison of Cairn Homes' Earnings Growth And 15% ROE

At first glance, Cairn Homes seems to have a decent ROE. Further, the company's ROE compares quite favorably to the industry average of 6.0%. This certainly adds some context to Cairn Homes' exceptional 26% net income growth seen over the past five years. We believe that there might also be other aspects that are positively influencing the company's earnings growth. For example, it is possible that the company's management has made some good strategic decisions, or that the company has a low payout ratio.

Given that the industry shrunk its earnings at a rate of 0.4% over the last few years, the net income growth of the company is quite impressive.

Earnings growth is a huge factor in stock valuation. What investors need to determine next is if the expected earnings growth, or the lack of it, is already built into the share price. By doing so, they will have an idea if the stock is headed into clear blue waters or if swampy waters await. One good indicator of expected earnings growth is the P/E ratio which determines the price the market is willing to pay for a stock based on its earnings prospects. So, you may want to check if Cairn Homes is trading on a high P/E or a low P/E, relative to its industry.

Is Cairn Homes Using Its Retained Earnings Effectively?

Cairn Homes has a significant three-year median payout ratio of 57%, meaning the company only retains 43% of its income. This implies that the company has been able to achieve high earnings growth despite returning most of its profits to shareholders.

Besides, Cairn Homes has been paying dividends over a period of five years. This shows that the company is committed to sharing profits with its shareholders. Upon studying the latest analysts' consensus data, we found that the company is expected to keep paying out approximately 63% of its profits over the next three years. Accordingly, forecasts suggest that Cairn Homes' future ROE will be 16% which is again, similar to the current ROE.

Conclusion

Overall, we are quite pleased with Cairn Homes' performance. We are particularly impressed by the considerable earnings growth posted by the company, which was likely backed by its high ROE. While the company is paying out most of its earnings as dividends, it has been able to grow its earnings in spite of it, so that's probably a good sign. Having said that, the company's earnings growth is expected to slow down, as forecasted in the current analyst estimates. To know more about the latest analysts predictions for the company, check out this visualization of analyst forecasts for the company.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.