The external fund manager backed by Berkshire Hathaway's Charlie Munger, Li Lu, makes no bones about it when he says 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility of prices, but whether you will suffer a permanent loss of capital.' So it seems the smart money knows that debt - which is usually involved in bankruptcies - is a very important factor, when you assess how risky a company is. Importantly, Bellway p.l.c. (LON:BWY) does carry debt. But the real question is whether this debt is making the company risky.
When Is Debt Dangerous?
Debt assists a business until the business has trouble paying it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. Part and parcel of capitalism is the process of 'creative destruction' where failed businesses are mercilessly liquidated by their bankers. However, a more common (but still painful) scenario is that it has to raise new equity capital at a low price, thus permanently diluting shareholders. Of course, debt can be an important tool in businesses, particularly capital heavy businesses. When we examine debt levels, we first consider both cash and debt levels, together.
See our latest analysis for Bellway
What Is Bellway's Net Debt?
The chart below, which you can click on for greater detail, shows that Bellway had UK£130.0m in debt in January 2023; about the same as the year before. But it also has UK£422.5m in cash to offset that, meaning it has UK£292.5m net cash.
How Healthy Is Bellway's Balance Sheet?
The latest balance sheet data shows that Bellway had liabilities of UK£897.8m due within a year, and liabilities of UK£672.5m falling due after that. Offsetting this, it had UK£422.5m in cash and UK£139.6m in receivables that were due within 12 months. So its liabilities outweigh the sum of its cash and (near-term) receivables by UK£1.01b.
While this might seem like a lot, it is not so bad since Bellway has a market capitalization of UK£2.83b, and so it could probably strengthen its balance sheet by raising capital if it needed to. However, it is still worthwhile taking a close look at its ability to pay off debt. While it does have liabilities worth noting, Bellway also has more cash than debt, so we're pretty confident it can manage its debt safely.
Also good is that Bellway grew its EBIT at 16% over the last year, further increasing its ability to manage debt. The balance sheet is clearly the area to focus on when you are analysing debt. But ultimately the future profitability of the business will decide if Bellway can strengthen its balance sheet over time. So if you're focused on the future you can check out this free report showing analyst profit forecasts.
But our final consideration is also important, because a company cannot pay debt with paper profits; it needs cold hard cash. While Bellway has net cash on its balance sheet, it's still worth taking a look at its ability to convert earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to free cash flow, to help us understand how quickly it is building (or eroding) that cash balance. In the last three years, Bellway's free cash flow amounted to 42% of its EBIT, less than we'd expect. That's not great, when it comes to paying down debt.
Summing Up
Although Bellway's balance sheet isn't particularly strong, due to the total liabilities, it is clearly positive to see that it has net cash of UK£292.5m. And we liked the look of last year's 16% year-on-year EBIT growth. So we don't have any problem with Bellway's use of debt. When analysing debt levels, the balance sheet is the obvious place to start. But ultimately, every company can contain risks that exist outside of the balance sheet. We've identified 4 warning signs with Bellway (at least 1 which shouldn't be ignored) , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If, after all that, you're more interested in a fast growing company with a rock-solid balance sheet, then check out our list of net cash growth stocks without delay.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
About LSE:BWY
Good value with reasonable growth potential.