Ashtead Group plc's (LON:AHT) Shares May Have Run Too Fast Too Soon

With a price-to-earnings (or "P/E") ratio of 20.9x Ashtead Group plc (LON:AHT) may be sending bearish signals at the moment, given that almost half of all companies in the United Kingdom have P/E ratios under 16x and even P/E's lower than 10x are not unusual. Although, it's not wise to just take the P/E at face value as there may be an explanation why it's as high as it is.

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Ashtead Group hasn't been tracking well recently as its declining earnings compare poorly to other companies, which have seen some growth on average. One possibility is that the P/E is high because investors think this poor earnings performance will turn the corner. If not, then existing shareholders may be extremely nervous about the viability of the share price.

Check out our latest analysis for Ashtead Group

Keen to find out how analysts think Ashtead Group's future stacks up against the industry? In that case, our free report is a great place to start.

Does Growth Match The High P/E?

Ashtead Group's P/E ratio would be typical for a company that's expected to deliver solid growth, and importantly, perform better than the market.

If we review the last year of earnings, dishearteningly the company's profits fell to the tune of 4.0%. That put a dampener on the good run it was having over the longer-term as its three-year EPS growth is still a noteworthy 16% in total. Accordingly, while they would have preferred to keep the run going, shareholders would be roughly satisfied with the medium-term rates of earnings growth.

Turning to the outlook, the next three years should generate growth of 15% per year as estimated by the analysts watching the company. Meanwhile, the rest of the market is forecast to expand by 15% per annum, which is not materially different.

With this information, we find it interesting that Ashtead Group is trading at a high P/E compared to the market. It seems most investors are ignoring the fairly average growth expectations and are willing to pay up for exposure to the stock. These shareholders may be setting themselves up for disappointment if the P/E falls to levels more in line with the growth outlook.

What We Can Learn From Ashtead Group's P/E?

Typically, we'd caution against reading too much into price-to-earnings ratios when settling on investment decisions, though it can reveal plenty about what other market participants think about the company.

Our examination of Ashtead Group's analyst forecasts revealed that its market-matching earnings outlook isn't impacting its high P/E as much as we would have predicted. Right now we are uncomfortable with the relatively high share price as the predicted future earnings aren't likely to support such positive sentiment for long. Unless these conditions improve, it's challenging to accept these prices as being reasonable.

There are also other vital risk factors to consider before investing and we've discovered 1 warning sign for Ashtead Group that you should be aware of.

If P/E ratios interest you, you may wish to see this free collection of other companies with strong earnings growth and low P/E ratios.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.