TBC Bank Group (LSE:TBCG) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of TBCG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

TBCG (£15.46) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£110.95)

TBCG fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	5/6
Future Growth	2/6
Past Performance	5/6
Financial Health	4/6
Dividends	4/6

TBCG Stock Overview

TBC Bank Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, brokerage, and card processing services to corporate and individual customers in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan.

Rewards

Trading at 86.1% below our estimate of its fair value

Earnings are forecast to grow 9.2% per year

Earnings grew by 66.1% over the past year

Risk Analysis

Unstable dividend track record

TBC Bank Group Competitors

Bank of Georgia Group

LSE:BGEO

UK£810.0m

Close Brothers Group

LSE:CBG

UK£1.7b

JSC Halyk Bank

LSE:HSBK

US$2.6b

TCS Group Holding

LSE:TCS

US$2.2b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for TBC Bank Group
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£15.46
52 Week High	UK£16.86
52 Week Low	UK£8.32
Beta	1.22
1 Month Change	28.19%
3 Month Change	15.72%
1 Year Change	18.74%
3 Year Change	18.92%
5 Year Change	-2.46%
Change since IPO	42.49%

Recent News & Updates

Jul 26

With EPS Growth And More, TBC Bank Group (LON:TBCG) Makes An Interesting Case

For beginners, it can seem like a good idea (and an exciting prospect) to buy a company that tells a good story to...

May 21

TBC Bank Group PLC (LON:TBCG) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from TBC Bank Group PLC ( LON:TBCG ), an important milestone in...

Shareholder Returns

	TBCG	GB Banks	GB Market
7D	4.2%	1.4%	-0.3%
1Y	18.7%	10.4%	-9.1%

Return vs Industry: TBCG exceeded the UK Banks industry which returned 9.7% over the past year.

Return vs Market: TBCG exceeded the UK Market which returned -8.9% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is TBCG's price volatile compared to industry and market?
TBCG volatility
TBCG Average Weekly Movement	5.4%
Banks Industry Average Movement	4.9%
Market Average Movement	5.4%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.8%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.7%

Stable Share Price: TBCG is not significantly more volatile than the rest of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 5% a week.

Volatility Over Time: TBCG's weekly volatility (5%) has been stable over the past year.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
1992	9,862	Vakhtang Butskhrikidze	https://www.tbcbankgroup.com

TBC Bank Group PLC, through its subsidiaries, provides banking, leasing, brokerage, and card processing services to corporate and individual customers in Georgia, Azerbaijan, and Uzbekistan. The company operates through Retail; Corporate; and Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises segments. It offers various current/settlement accounts, and term deposits; mortgage, consumer, retail, and corporate loans, as well as loans for micro, small, and medium enterprises; credit cards, credit lines, letters of credit, and guarantees; and money transfer and currency exchange services.

TBC Bank Group Fundamentals Summary

How do TBC Bank Group's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
TBCG fundamental statistics
Market Cap	GEL2.79b
Earnings (TTM)	GEL874.22m
Revenue (TTM)	GEL1.58b

3.2x

P/E Ratio

0.7x

P/B Ratio

Is TBCG overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
TBCG income statement (TTM)
Revenue	GEL1.58b
Cost of Revenue	GEL0
Gross Profit	GEL1.58b
Other Expenses	GEL710.53m
Earnings	GEL874.22m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

Aug 12, 2022

Earnings per share (EPS)	16.04
Gross Margin	100.00%
Net Profit Margin	55.16%
Debt/Equity Ratio	146.9%

How did TBCG perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

Dividends

8.4%

Current Dividend Yield

25%

Payout Ratio

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is TBCG undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

5/6

Valuation Score 5/6

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers
Price-To-Earnings vs Industry
Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
Analyst Forecast

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for TBCG?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for TBCG. This is calculated by dividing TBCG's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is TBCG's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	GEL2.79b

TBCG key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	n/a
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	n/a
PEG Ratio	0.3x

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Peers

How does TBCG's PE Ratio compare to its peers?

TBCG PE Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PE ratio for TBCG vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PE	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	4.1x
BGEO Bank of Georgia Group	3.2x	7.7%	UK£810.0m
CBG Close Brothers Group	8.5x	7.7%	UK£1.7b
HSBK JSC Halyk Bank	2.5x	10.2%	US$2.6b
TCS TCS Group Holding	2.1x	20.7%	US$2.2b
TBCG TBC Bank Group	3.2x	9.2%	UK£842.8m

Price-To-Earnings vs Peers: TBCG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.2x) compared to the peer average (4.1x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does TBCG's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Banks Industry?

Price-To-Earnings vs Industry: TBCG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.2x) compared to the UK Banks industry average (6.6x)

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is TBCG's PE Ratio compared to its Fair PE Ratio? This is the expected PE Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

TBCG PE Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PE Ratio	3.2x
Fair PE Ratio	10.1x

Price-To-Earnings vs Fair Ratio: TBCG is good value based on its Price-To-Earnings Ratio (3.2x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Earnings Ratio (10.1x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of TBCG when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: TBCG (£15.46) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£110.95)

Significantly Below Fair Value: TBCG is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.

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Future Growth

How is TBC Bank Group forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 5 analysts?

Future Growth Score

2/6

Future Growth Score 2/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

9.2%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: TBCG's forecast earnings growth (9.2% per year) is above the savings rate (0.9%).

Earnings vs Market: TBCG's earnings (9.2% per year) are forecast to grow slower than the UK market (9.4% per year).

High Growth Earnings: TBCG's earnings are forecast to grow, but not significantly.

Revenue vs Market: TBCG's revenue (14% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (3.9% per year).

High Growth Revenue: TBCG's revenue (14% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: TBCG's Return on Equity is forecast to be low in 3 years time (19.9%).

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Past Performance

How has TBC Bank Group performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

5/6

Past Performance Score 5/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

16.2%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: TBCG has high quality earnings.

Growing Profit Margin: TBCG's current net profit margins (55.2%) are higher than last year (50.2%).

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: TBCG's earnings have grown by 16.2% per year over the past 5 years.

Accelerating Growth: TBCG's earnings growth over the past year (66.1%) exceeds its 5-year average (16.2% per year).

Earnings vs Industry: TBCG earnings growth over the past year (66.1%) exceeded the Banks industry 55.3%.

Return on Equity

High ROE: Whilst TBCG's Return on Equity (22.58%) is high, this metric is skewed due to their high level of debt.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is TBC Bank Group's financial position? (This company is analysed differently as a bank or financial institution)

Financial Health Score

4/6

Financial Health Score 4/6

Asset Level
Allowance for Bad Loans
Low Risk Liabilities
Loan Level
Low Risk Deposits
Level of Bad Loans

Financial Position Analysis

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Balance Sheet

Financial Institutions Analysis

Asset Level: TBCG's Assets to Equity ratio (6.4x) is low.

Allowance for Bad Loans: TBCG has a low allowance for bad loans (81%).

Low Risk Liabilities: 71% of TBCG's liabilities are made up of primarily low risk sources of funding.

Loan Level: TBCG has an appropriate level of Loans to Assets ratio (69%).

Low Risk Deposits: TBCG's Loans to Deposits ratio (114%) is appropriate.

Level of Bad Loans: TBCG has a high level of bad loans (2.8%).

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Dividend

What is TBC Bank Group current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

4/6

Dividend Score 4/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

8.45%

Current Dividend Yield

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: TBCG's dividend (8.45%) is higher than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (1.83%).

High Dividend: TBCG's dividend (8.45%) is in the top 25% of dividend payers in the UK market (5.11%)

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: TBCG has been paying a dividend for less than 10 years and during this time payments have been volatile.

Growing Dividend: TBCG's dividend payments have increased, but the company has only paid a dividend for 5 years.

Current Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: With its low payout ratio (24.9%), TBCG's dividend payments are well covered by earnings.

Future Payout to Shareholders

Future Dividend Coverage: TBCG's dividends in 3 years are forecast to be well covered by earnings (37.3% payout ratio).

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

7.9yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Vakhtang Butskhrikidze

6.25yrs

Tenure

GEL6,910,746

Compensation

Mr. Vakhtang Butskhrikidze serves as the Chief Executive Officer of TBC Bank Group PLC since May 2016. Mr. Butskhrikidze serves as Chief Executive Officer and Member of Management Board of JSC TBC Bank. Mr...

CEO Compensation Analysis

Compensation vs Market: Vakhtang's total compensation ($USD2.55M) is above average for companies of similar size in the UK market ($USD1.37M).

Compensation vs Earnings: Vakhtang's compensation has increased by more than 20% in the past year.

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: TBCG's management team is seasoned and experienced (7.9 years average tenure).

Board Members

Experienced Board: TBCG's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.3 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/08/11 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/08/11 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31