TBC Bank Group PLC (LON:TBCG) First-Quarter Results: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting For This Year

Last week saw the newest first-quarter earnings release from TBC Bank Group PLC (LON:TBCG), an important milestone in the company's journey to build a stronger business. The results were positive, with revenue coming in at GEL409m, beating analyst expectations by 5.8%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. Readers will be glad to know we've aggregated the latest statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their mind on TBC Bank Group after the latest results.

View our latest analysis for TBC Bank Group

Taking into account the latest results, the most recent consensus for TBC Bank Group from six analysts is for revenues of GEL1.71b in 2022 which, if met, would be a solid 8.0% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to fall 13% to GEL14.03 in the same period. In the lead-up to this report, the analysts had been modelling revenues of GEL1.71b and earnings per share (EPS) of GEL14.72 in 2022. The analysts seem to have become a little more negative on the business after the latest results, given the small dip in their earnings per share numbers for next year.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target was broadly unchanged at UK£20.94, with the analysts clearly implying that the forecast decline in earnings is not expected to have much of an impact on valuation. It could also be instructive to look at the range of analyst estimates, to evaluate how different the outlier opinions are from the mean. The most optimistic TBC Bank Group analyst has a price target of UK£26.77 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at UK£14.92. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business' future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of TBC Bank Group'shistorical trends, as the 11% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2022 is roughly in line with the 14% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry, which analyst estimates (in aggregate) suggest will see revenues grow 5.1% annually. So although TBC Bank Group is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's definitely expected to grow faster than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest concern is that the analysts reduced their earnings per share estimates, suggesting business headwinds could lay ahead for TBC Bank Group. Happily, there were no major changes to revenue forecasts, with the business still expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at UK£20.94, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on TBC Bank Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for TBC Bank Group going out to 2024, and you can see them free on our platform here..

We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for TBC Bank Group that you need to be mindful of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.