Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (LSE:AML) - Share price, News & Analysis

Q: What is the Fair Price of AML when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

AML (£5.41) is trading below our estimate of [[fair value]] (£25.69)

AML fundamental analysis
Snowflake Score
Valuation	4/6
Future Growth	1/6
Past Performance	0/6
Financial Health	2/6
Dividends	0/6

AML Stock Overview

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells luxury sports cars under the Aston Martin and Lagonda brand names worldwide.

Rewards

Trading at 79% below our estimate of its fair value

Revenue is forecast to grow 19.05% per year

Risk Analysis

Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 3 years

Volatile share price over the past 3 months

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Competitors

TI Fluid Systems

LSE:TIFS

UK£838.5m

AB Dynamics

AIM:ABDP

UK£254.5m

Saietta Group

AIM:SED

UK£125.6m

UMW Holdings Berhad

KLSE:UMW

RM3.5b

Price History & Performance

Summary of all time highs, changes and price drops for Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings
Historical stock prices
Current Share Price	UK£5.41
52 Week High	UK£21.19
52 Week Low	UK£4.66
Beta	1.64
1 Month Change	-20.87%
3 Month Change	-41.88%
1 Year Change	-71.48%
3 Year Change	-97.31%
5 Year Change	n/a
Change since IPO	-98.51%

Recent News & Updates

Jun 24

Is Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings (LON:AML) Using Too Much Debt?

Legendary fund manager Li Lu (who Charlie Munger backed) once said, 'The biggest investment risk is not the volatility...

Shareholder Returns

	AML	GB Auto	GB Market
7D	4.9%	-1.8%	2.3%
1Y	-71.5%	-29.0%	-8.6%

Return vs Industry: AML underperformed the UK Auto industry which returned -29% over the past year.

Return vs Market: AML underperformed the UK Market which returned -8.6% over the past year.

Price Volatility

Is AML's price volatile compared to industry and market?
AML volatility
AML Average Weekly Movement	10.6%
Auto Industry Average Movement	5.0%
Market Average Movement	5.5%
10% most volatile stocks in GB Market	10.8%
10% least volatile stocks in GB Market	2.8%

Stable Share Price: AML is more volatile than 75% of UK stocks over the past 3 months, typically moving +/- 11% a week.

Volatility Over Time: AML's weekly volatility (11%) has been stable over the past year, but is still higher than 75% of UK stocks.

About the Company

Founded	Employees	CEO	Website
2018	2,207	Amedeo Felisa	https://www.astonmartinlagonda.com

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and sells luxury sports cars under the Aston Martin and Lagonda brand names worldwide. It also engages in the sale of parts; sale of vehicles; servicing of vehicles; and brand and motorsport activities. The company sells its vehicles through a network of dealers.

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Fundamentals Summary

How do Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings's earnings and revenue compare to its market cap?
AML fundamental statistics
Market Cap	UK£629.58m
Earnings (TTM)	-UK£261.80m
Revenue (TTM)	UK£1.10b

0.6x

P/S Ratio

-2.4x

P/E Ratio

Is AML overvalued?

See Fair Value and valuation analysis

Earnings & Revenue

Key profitability statistics from the latest earnings report
AML income statement (TTM)
Revenue	UK£1.10b
Cost of Revenue	UK£739.20m
Gross Profit	UK£364.40m
Other Expenses	UK£626.20m
Earnings	-UK£261.80m

Last Reported Earnings

Mar 31, 2022

Next Earnings Date

n/a

Earnings per share (EPS)	-2.25
Gross Margin	33.02%
Net Profit Margin	-23.72%
Debt/Equity Ratio	227.4%

How did AML perform over the long term?

See historical performance and comparison

We’ve recently updated our valuation analysis.

Valuation

Is AML undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

Price-To-Sales vs Peers
Price-To-Sales vs Industry
Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio
Below Fair Value
Significantly Below Fair Value
PEG Ratio

Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AML?

Other financial metrics that can be useful for relative valuation.

The above table shows the n/a ratio for AML. This is calculated by dividing AML's market cap by their current preferred multiple.
What is AML's n/a Ratio?
n/a Ratio	0x
n/a	n/a
Market Cap	UK£629.58m

AML key valuation metrics and ratios. From Price to Earnings, Price to Sales and Price to Book to Price to Earnings Growth Ratio, Enterprise Value and EBITDA.
Key Statistics
Enterprise Value/Revenue	1.4x
Enterprise Value/EBITDA	-106.6x
PEG Ratio	n/a

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AML's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

AML PS Ratio vs Peers

The above table shows the PS ratio for AML vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
Company	PS	Estimated Growth	Market Cap
Peer Average	20.5x
TIFS TI Fluid Systems	0.3x	7.9%	UK£838.5m
ABDP AB Dynamics	3.4x	10.2%	UK£254.5m
SED Saietta Group	78x	76.9%	UK£125.6m
UMW UMW Holdings Berhad	0.3x	2.9%	RM3.5b
AML Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings	0.6x	19.1%	UK£629.6m

Forward PS

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AML is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (20.5x).

Price to Earnings Ratio vs Industry

How does AML's PE Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Auto Industry?

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AML is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the European Auto industry average (0.5x)

Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AML's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AML PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio	0.6x
Fair PS Ratio	1.3x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AML is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.3x).

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AML when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AML (£5.41) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£25.69)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AML is trading below fair value by more than 20%.

Price to Earnings Growth Ratio

PEG Ratio: Insufficient data to calculate AML's PEG Ratio to determine if it is good value.

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Future Growth

How is Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings forecast to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 9 analysts?

Future Growth Score

1/6

Future Growth Score 1/6

Earnings vs Savings Rate
Earnings vs Market
High Growth Earnings
Revenue vs Market
High Growth Revenue
Future ROE

82.6%

Forecasted annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue Growth Forecasts

Analyst Future Growth Forecasts

Earnings vs Savings Rate: AML is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Earnings vs Market: AML is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

High Growth Earnings: AML is forecast to remain unprofitable over the next 3 years.

Revenue vs Market: AML's revenue (19.1% per year) is forecast to grow faster than the UK market (4.1% per year).

High Growth Revenue: AML's revenue (19.1% per year) is forecast to grow slower than 20% per year.

Earnings per Share Growth Forecasts

Future Return on Equity

Future ROE: AML is forecast to be unprofitable in 3 years.

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Past Performance

How has Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings performed over the past 5 years?

Past Performance Score

0/6

Past Performance Score 0/6

Quality Earnings
Growing Profit Margin
Earnings Trend
Accelerating Growth
Earnings vs Industry
High ROE

-53.6%

Historical annual earnings growth

Earnings and Revenue History

Quality Earnings: AML is currently unprofitable.

Growing Profit Margin: AML is currently unprofitable.

Past Earnings Growth Analysis

Earnings Trend: AML is unprofitable, and losses have increased over the past 5 years at a rate of 53.6% per year.

Accelerating Growth: Unable to compare AML's earnings growth over the past year to its 5-year average as it is currently unprofitable

Earnings vs Industry: AML is unprofitable, making it difficult to compare its past year earnings growth to the Auto industry (56.9%).

Return on Equity

High ROE: AML has a negative Return on Equity (-46.85%), as it is currently unprofitable.

Discover strong past performing companies

Financial Health

How is Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings's financial position?

Financial Health Score

2/6

Financial Health Score 2/6

Short Term Liabilities
Long Term Liabilities
Debt Level
Reducing Debt
Stable Cash Runway
Forecast Cash Runway

Financial Position Analysis

Short Term Liabilities: AML's short term assets (£911.2M) do not cover its short term liabilities (£1.0B).

Long Term Liabilities: AML's short term assets (£911.2M) do not cover its long term liabilities (£1.3B).

Debt to Equity History and Analysis

Debt Level: AML's net debt to equity ratio (154.5%) is considered high.

Reducing Debt: AML's debt to equity ratio has reduced from 831.9% to 227.4% over the past 5 years.

Balance Sheet

Cash Runway Analysis

For companies that have on average been loss making in the past we assess whether they have at least 1 year of cash runway.

Stable Cash Runway: AML has sufficient cash runway for more than 3 years based on its current free cash flow.

Forecast Cash Runway: Insufficient data to determine if AML has enough cash runway if its free cash flow continues to grow or shrink based on historical rates.

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Dividend

What is Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividend Score

0/6

Dividend Score 0/6

Notable Dividend
High Dividend
Stable Dividend
Growing Dividend
Earnings Coverage
Future Dividend Coverage

Dividend Yield vs Market

Notable Dividend: Unable to evaluate AML's dividend yield against the bottom 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

High Dividend: Unable to evaluate AML's dividend yield against the top 25% of dividend payers, as the company has not reported any recent payouts.

Stability and Growth of Payments

Stable Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AML's dividends per share have been stable in the past.

Growing Dividend: Insufficient data to determine if AML's dividend payments have been increasing.

Earnings Payout to Shareholders

Earnings Coverage: Insufficient data to calculate payout ratio to determine if its dividend payments are covered by earnings.

Cash Payout to Shareholders

Cash Flow Coverage: Unable to calculate sustainability of dividends as AML has not reported any payouts.

Discover strong dividend paying companies

Management

How experienced are the management team and are they aligned to shareholders interests?

0.08yrs

Average management tenure

CEO

Amedeo Felisa (75 yo)

0.083

Tenure

UK£34,000

Compensation

Mr. Amedeo Felisa serves as Chief executive Officer and Executive Director of Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc since May 04, 2022. He had been Independent Non-Executive Director of Aston Martin Lag...

Leadership Team

Experienced Management: AML's management team is not considered experienced ( 0.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new team.

Board Members

Experienced Board: AML's board of directors are not considered experienced ( 1.1 years average tenure), which suggests a new board.

Ownership

Who are the major shareholders and have insiders been buying or selling?

Insider Trading Volume

Insider Buying: Insufficient data to determine if insiders have bought more shares than they have sold in the past 3 months.

Recent Insider Transactions

Ownership Breakdown

Dilution of Shares: Shareholders have not been meaningfully diluted in the past year.

Data	Last Updated (UTC time)
Company Analysis	2022/06/26 00:00
End of Day Share Price	2022/06/24 00:00
Earnings	2022/03/31
Annual Earnings	2021/12/31