Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings plc

LSE:AML Stock Report

Market Cap: UK£928.2m

Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings Valuation

Is AML undervalued compared to its fair value, analyst forecasts and its price relative to the market?

Valuation Score

4/6

Valuation Score 4/6

  • Below Fair Value

  • Significantly Below Fair Value

  • Price-To-Sales vs Peers

  • Price-To-Sales vs Industry

  • Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio

  • Analyst Forecast

Share Price vs Fair Value

What is the Fair Price of AML when looking at its future cash flows? For this estimate we use a Discounted Cash Flow model.

Below Fair Value: AML (£1.13) is trading below our estimate of fair value (£5.31)

Significantly Below Fair Value: AML is trading below fair value by more than 20%.


Key Valuation Metric

Which metric is best to use when looking at relative valuation for AML?

Key metric: As AML is unprofitable we use its Price-To-Sales Ratio for relative valuation analysis.

The above table shows the Price to Sales ratio for AML. This is calculated by dividing AML's market cap by their current revenue.
What is AML's PS Ratio?
PS Ratio0.6x
SalesUK£1.59b
Market CapUK£928.15m

Price to Sales Ratio vs Peers

How does AML's PS Ratio compare to its peers?

The above table shows the PS ratio for AML vs its peers. Here we also display the market cap and forecasted growth for additional consideration.
CompanyForward PSEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
Peer Average1.4x
TIFS TI Fluid Systems
0.3x2.5%UK£894.7m
DWL Dowlais Group
0.2x-0.3%UK£729.4m
ABDP AB Dynamics
4.3x8.9%UK£451.1m
2204 China Motor
1x5.1%NT$43.0b
AML Aston Martin Lagonda Global Holdings
0.6x12.5%UK£928.2m

Price-To-Sales vs Peers: AML is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the peer average (1.4x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Industry

How does AML's PS Ratio compare vs other companies in the European Auto Industry?

5 CompaniesPrice / SalesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
AML 0.6xIndustry Avg. 0.3xNo. of Companies5PS00.40.81.21.62+
5 CompaniesEstimated GrowthMarket Cap
No more companies

Price-To-Sales vs Industry: AML is expensive based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the European Auto industry average (0.3x).


Price to Sales Ratio vs Fair Ratio

What is AML's PS Ratio compared to its Fair PS Ratio? This is the expected PS Ratio taking into account the company's forecast earnings growth, profit margins and other risk factors.

AML PS Ratio vs Fair Ratio.
Fair Ratio
Current PS Ratio0.6x
Fair PS Ratio1.2x

Price-To-Sales vs Fair Ratio: AML is good value based on its Price-To-Sales Ratio (0.6x) compared to the estimated Fair Price-To-Sales Ratio (1.2x).


Analyst Price Targets

What is the analyst 12-month forecast and do we have any statistical confidence in the consensus price target?

The above table shows the analyst AML forecast and predictions for the stock price in 12 month’s time.
DateShare PriceAverage 1Y Price TargetDispersionHighLow1Y Actual priceAnalysts
CurrentUK£1.13
UK£1.71
+52.3%
44.3%UK£3.63UK£1.00n/a10
Nov ’25UK£1.16
UK£1.70
+46.0%
45.2%UK£3.63UK£1.00n/a10
Oct ’25UK£1.17
UK£2.26
+92.9%
38.4%UK£3.85UK£1.00n/a10
Sep ’25UK£1.49
UK£2.46
+65.7%
32.8%UK£3.89UK£1.55n/a10
Aug ’25UK£1.52
UK£2.47
+62.1%
32.9%UK£3.89UK£1.55n/a10
Jul ’25UK£1.44
UK£2.45
+70.1%
32.6%UK£3.85UK£1.50n/a10
Jun ’25UK£1.45
UK£2.48
+70.5%
32.5%UK£3.85UK£1.50n/a10
May ’25UK£1.38
UK£2.53
+83.1%
30.3%UK£3.85UK£1.58n/a10
Apr ’25UK£1.70
UK£2.77
+62.8%
25.8%UK£3.93UK£1.80n/a10
Mar ’25UK£1.77
UK£3.04
+72.1%
33.2%UK£5.50UK£1.80n/a10
Feb ’25UK£1.86
UK£3.31
+77.9%
27.2%UK£5.50UK£2.30n/a10
Jan ’25UK£2.26
UK£3.42
+51.6%
27.8%UK£5.50UK£2.30n/a10
Dec ’24UK£2.23
UK£3.55
+58.9%
25.7%UK£5.50UK£2.30n/a10
Nov ’24UK£1.99
UK£3.77
+89.3%
22.3%UK£5.50UK£2.60UK£1.1610
Oct ’24UK£2.86
UK£4.04
+41.5%
18.9%UK£5.50UK£2.60UK£1.1710
Sep ’24UK£3.46
UK£4.04
+16.9%
18.9%UK£5.50UK£2.60UK£1.4910
Aug ’24UK£3.87
UK£3.67
-5.1%
22.4%UK£5.50UK£2.60UK£1.5210
Jul ’24UK£3.55
UK£2.89
-18.7%
19.6%UK£4.10UK£1.95UK£1.4410
Jun ’24UK£2.64
UK£2.37
-10.2%
23.7%UK£3.10UK£1.60UK£1.4510
May ’24UK£2.42
UK£2.03
-16.0%
25.1%UK£3.00UK£1.32UK£1.3810
Apr ’24UK£2.28
UK£1.92
-16.1%
24.9%UK£3.00UK£1.32UK£1.7010
Mar ’24UK£2.08
UK£1.61
-22.4%
14.1%UK£2.00UK£1.20UK£1.7710
Feb ’24UK£1.69
UK£2.08
+22.9%
79.8%UK£7.00UK£1.12UK£1.8610
Jan ’24UK£1.54
UK£2.76
+79.2%
98.3%UK£8.53UK£0.90UK£2.269
Dec ’23UK£1.36
UK£2.76
+103.0%
98.3%UK£8.53UK£0.90UK£2.239
Nov ’23UK£1.06
UK£5.50
+420.6%
75.3%UK£14.30UK£1.10UK£1.998

Analyst Forecast: Target price is more than 20% higher than the current share price, but analysts are not within a statistically confident range of agreement.


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