Valneva SE (EPA:VLA) Analysts Just Slashed Next Year's Revenue Estimates By 13%

Market forces rained on the parade of Valneva SE (EPA:VLA) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for next year. Revenue estimates were cut sharply as the analysts signalled a weaker outlook - perhaps a sign that investors should temper their expectations as well.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Valneva from its eight analysts is for revenues of €189m in 2025 which, if met, would be a notable 19% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Before the latest update, the analysts were foreseeing €216m of revenue in 2025. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on Valneva, noting the measurable cut to revenue estimates in this update.

See our latest analysis for Valneva

We'd point out that there was no major changes to their price target of €6.69, suggesting the latest estimates were not enough to shift their view on the value of the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We can infer from the latest estimates that forecasts expect a continuation of Valneva'shistorical trends, as the 15% annualised revenue growth to the end of 2025 is roughly in line with the 14% annual revenue growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 28% annually. So although Valneva is expected to maintain its revenue growth rate, it's forecast to grow slower than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The clear low-light was that analysts slashing their revenue forecasts for Valneva next year. They also expect company revenue to perform worse than the wider market. Given the stark change in sentiment, we'd understand if investors became more cautious on Valneva after today.

After a downgrade like this, it's pretty clear that previous forecasts were too optimistic. What's more, we've spotted several possible issues with Valneva's business, like dilutive stock issuance over the past year. Learn more, and discover the 3 other flags we've identified, for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies backed by insiders.

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