Analyst Forecasts Just Became More Bearish On Valneva SE (EPA:VLA)

Market forces rained on the parade of Valneva SE (EPA:VLA) shareholders today, when the analysts downgraded their forecasts for this year. This report focused on revenue estimates, and it looks as though the consensus view of the business has become substantially more conservative.

Following the downgrade, the most recent consensus for Valneva from its nine analysts is for revenues of €191m in 2024 which, if met, would be a huge 24% increase on its sales over the past 12 months. Prior to the latest estimates, the analysts were forecasting revenues of €221m in 2024. The consensus view seems to have become more pessimistic on Valneva, noting the measurable cut to revenue estimates in this update.

See our latest analysis for Valneva

There was no particular change to the consensus price target of €8.95, with Valneva's latest outlook seemingly not enough to result in a change of valuation.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. The period to the end of 2024 brings more of the same, according to the analysts, with revenue forecast to display 24% growth on an annualised basis. That is in line with its 27% annual growth over the past five years. Compare this with the broader industry (in aggregate), which analyst estimates suggest will see revenues grow 39% annually. So it's pretty clear that Valneva is expected to grow slower than similar companies in the same industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that analysts cut their revenue estimates for this year. They're also anticipating slower revenue growth than the wider market. Overall, given the drastic downgrade to this year's forecasts, we'd be feeling a little more wary of Valneva going forwards.

Looking to learn more? At least one of Valneva's nine analysts has provided estimates out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Another way to search for interesting companies that could be reaching an inflection point is to track whether management are buying or selling, with our free list of growing companies that insiders are buying.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.