SergeFerrari Group SA Earnings Missed Analyst Estimates: Here's What Analysts Are Forecasting Now

As you might know, SergeFerrari Group SA (EPA:SEFER) last week released its latest full-year, and things did not turn out so great for shareholders. SergeFerrari Group missed earnings this time around, with €328m revenue coming in 2.4% below what the analysts had modelled. Statutory earnings per share (EPS) of €0.40 also fell short of expectations by 13%. Following the result, the analysts have updated their earnings model, and it would be good to know whether they think there's been a strong change in the company's prospects, or if it's business as usual. So we gathered the latest post-earnings forecasts to see what estimates suggest is in store for next year.

View our latest analysis for SergeFerrari Group

Following last week's earnings report, SergeFerrari Group's four analysts are forecasting 2024 revenues to be €322.3m, approximately in line with the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are expected to nosedive 54% to €0.18 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €321.8m and earnings per share (EPS) of €0.38 in 2024. The analysts seem to have become more bearish following the latest results. While there were no changes to revenue forecasts, there was a large cut to EPS estimates.

It might be a surprise to learn that the consensus price target fell 5.0% to €7.56, with the analysts clearly linking lower forecast earnings to the performance of the stock price. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. There are some variant perceptions on SergeFerrari Group, with the most bullish analyst valuing it at €11.00 and the most bearish at €5.80 per share. This is a fairly broad spread of estimates, suggesting that analysts are forecasting a wide range of possible outcomes for the business.

One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. We would highlight that revenue is expected to reverse, with a forecast 1.6% annualised decline to the end of 2024. That is a notable change from historical growth of 16% over the last five years. Compare this with our data, which suggests that other companies in the same industry are, in aggregate, expected to see their revenue grow 4.7% per year. It's pretty clear that SergeFerrari Group's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts downgraded their earnings per share estimates, showing that there has been a clear decline in sentiment following these results. On the plus side, there were no major changes to revenue estimates; although forecasts imply they will perform worse than the wider industry. Furthermore, the analysts also cut their price targets, suggesting that the latest news has led to greater pessimism about the intrinsic value of the business.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on SergeFerrari Group. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for SergeFerrari Group going out to 2025, and you can see them free on our platform here.

However, before you get too enthused, we've discovered 4 warning signs for SergeFerrari Group (1 is a bit concerning!) that you should be aware of.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.