New Risk • Dec 31
New major risk - Revenue and earnings growth Revenue has declined by 13% over the past year. This is considered a major risk. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. If revenues are declining, then it is difficult for the company to prevent its earnings from declining as well. A trend of falling revenue can be very difficult to turn around. If the company is well already established it may also be a sign the company has matured and is in decline. In addition, if the company pays dividends it will also likely need to reduce or cut them, striking a dual blow to total shareholder returns. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (39% average weekly change). Revenue has declined by 13% over the past year. Market cap is less than US$10m (€135.0k market cap, or US$158.4k). Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Dec 03
Now 32% overvalued Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 32% to €0.33. The fair value is estimated to be €0.25, however this is not to be taken as a sell recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.0% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Buy Or Sell Opportunity • Nov 13
Now 34% undervalued after recent price drop Over the last 90 days, the stock has fallen 68% to €0.16. The fair value is estimated to be €0.24, however this is not to be taken as a buy recommendation but rather should be used as a guide only. Revenue has grown by 6.5% over the last 3 years. Meanwhile, the company became loss making. Board Change • Nov 12
No independent directors No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 3 experienced directors. 1 highly experienced director. No independent directors (4 non-independent directors). Deputy MD & Director Vincent Stempfer was the last director to join the board, commencing their role in 2021. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Lack of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Announcement • Oct 27
Cerinnov Group SA, Annual General Meeting, Nov 28, 2025 Cerinnov Group SA, Annual General Meeting, Nov 28, 2025. Location: condat sur vienne France New Risk • Mar 31
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2024. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (15% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$10m (€2.69m market cap, or US$2.91m). Minor Risks Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2024 fiscal period end). Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€252k net loss in 2 years). New Risk • Mar 03
New minor risk - Profitability The company is currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over the next 2 years. Trailing 12-month net loss: €551k Forecast net loss in 2 years: €252k This is considered a minor risk. Companies that are not profitable are more likely to be burning through cash and less likely to be well established. Ultimately, shareholders want to see a good return on their investment and that generally comes from sharing in the company's profits. Without profits, the company is under pressure to grow significantly while potentially having to reduce costs and possibly needing to take on debt or raise capital to remain afloat. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (19% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$10m (€3.06m market cap, or US$3.19m). Minor Risk Currently unprofitable and not forecast to become profitable over next 2 years (€252k net loss in 2 years). Major Estimate Revision • Sep 19
Consensus revenue estimates fall by 12% The consensus outlook for revenues in fiscal year 2024 has deteriorated. 2024 revenue forecast decreased from €15.9m to €14.0m. Forecast loss of -€0.19, down from profit of €0.13 per share profit previously. Machinery industry in France expected to see average net income growth of 23% next year. Consensus price target down from €3.60 to €2.40. Share price fell 27% to €1.08 over the past week. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 13
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 2.7% After last week's 2.7% share price decline to €1.47, the stock trades at a trailing P/E ratio of 59.3x. Average forward P/E is 5x in the Machinery industry in France. Total loss to shareholders of 18% over the past three years. Price Target Changed • Sep 13
Price target decreased by 35% to €2.40 Down from €3.70, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 64% above last closing price of €1.47. Stock is down 47% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.19 compared to earnings per share of €0.025 last year. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Aug 24
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 23% After last week's 23% share price gain to €1.73, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 13x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Machinery industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 4.0% over the past three years. New Risk • Jul 06
New minor risk - Shareholder dilution The company's shareholders have been diluted in the past year. Increase in shares outstanding: 2.7% This is considered a minor risk. Shareholder dilution occurs when there is an increase in the number of shares on issue that is not proportionally distributed between all shareholders. Often due to the company raising equity capital or some options being converted into stock. All else being equal, if there are more shares outstanding then each existing share will be entitled to a lower proportion of the company's total earnings, thus reducing earnings per share (EPS). While dilution might not always result in lower EPS (like if the company is using the capital to fund an EPS accretive acquisition) in a lot cases it does, along with lower dividends per share and less voting power at shareholder meetings. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Market cap is less than US$10m (€6.53m market cap, or US$7.08m). Minor Risks High level of debt (140% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.3% average weekly change). Large one-off items impacting financial results. Shareholders have been diluted in the past year (2.7% increase in shares outstanding). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jun 15
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 22% After last week's 22% share price decline to €1.46, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Machinery industry in France. Total loss to shareholders of 1.7% over the past three years. Major Estimate Revision • Apr 18
Consensus EPS estimates fall by 28% The consensus outlook for fiscal year 2024 has been updated. 2024 EPS estimate fell from €0.18 to €0.13. Revenue forecast unchanged from €15.9m at last update. Net income forecast to grow 426% next year vs 36% growth forecast for Machinery industry in France. Consensus price target down from €3.70 to €3.60. Share price was steady at €1.96 over the past week. Reported Earnings • Apr 12
Full year 2023 earnings released: EPS: €0.03 (vs €0.084 loss in FY 2022) Full year 2023 results: EPS: €0.03 (up from €0.084 loss in FY 2022). Revenue: €15.6m (up 3.5% from FY 2022). Net income: €114.0k (up €490.0k from FY 2022). Profit margin: 0.7% (up from net loss in FY 2022). Revenue is forecast to grow 9.3% p.a. on average during the next 2 years, compared to a 5.2% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in France. Over the last 3 years on average, earnings per share has increased by 104% per year but the company’s share price has only increased by 14% per year, which means it is significantly lagging earnings growth. New Risk • Mar 31
New minor risk - Financial data availability The company's latest financial reports are more than 6 months old. Last reported fiscal period ended June 2023. This is considered a minor risk. If the company has not reported its earnings on time, it may have been delayed due to audit problems or it may be finding it difficult to reconcile its accounts. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Market cap is less than US$10m (€8.93m market cap, or US$9.63m). Minor Risks High level of debt (172% net debt to equity). Latest financial reports are more than 6 months old (reported June 2023 fiscal period end). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.5% average weekly change). New Risk • Mar 27
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: €9.04m (US$9.79m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Market cap is less than US$10m (€9.04m market cap, or US$9.79m). Minor Risks High level of debt (172% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.6% average weekly change). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Feb 08
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to €2.98, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 6x in the Machinery industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 92% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Jan 02
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 15% After last week's 15% share price gain to €2.74, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 11x. Average forward P/E is 9x in the Machinery industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 44% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Nov 09
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 19% After last week's 19% share price gain to €2.82, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Machinery industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 129% over the past three years. New Risk • Oct 26
New major risk - Market cap size The company's market capitalization is less than US$10m. Market cap: €9.35m (US$9.85m) This is considered a major risk. Companies with a small market capitalization are most likely businesses that have not yet released a product to market or are simply a very small company without a wide reach. Either way, risk is elevated with these companies because there is a chance the product may not come to fruition or the company's addressable market or demand may not be as large as expected. In addition, if the company's size is the main factor, it is less likely to have many investors and analysts following it and scrutinizing its performance and outlook. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risks Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.4% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$10m (€9.35m market cap, or US$9.85m). Minor Risk High level of debt (172% net debt to equity). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 25
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 20% After last week's 20% share price decline to €2.13, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 9x. Average forward P/E is 7x in the Machinery industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 228% over the past three years. New Risk • Oct 19
New major risk - Share price stability The company's share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months. It is more volatile than 90% of French stocks, typically moving 9.2% a week. This is considered a major risk. Share price volatility increases the risk of potential losses in the short-term as the stock tends to have larger drops in price more frequently than other stocks. It may also indicate the stock is highly sensitive to market conditions or economic conditions rather than being sensitive to its own business performance, which may also be inconsistent. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Major Risk Share price has been highly volatile over the past 3 months (9.2% average weekly change). Minor Risks High level of debt (172% net debt to equity). Market cap is less than US$100m (€10.7m market cap, or US$11.4m). Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Oct 10
Investor sentiment improves as stock rises 16% After last week's 16% share price gain to €2.84, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 12x. Average forward P/E is 8x in the Machinery industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 269% over the past three years. Valuation Update With 7 Day Price Move • Sep 20
Investor sentiment deteriorates as stock falls 26% After last week's 26% share price decline to €2.54, the stock trades at a forward P/E ratio of 10x. Average forward P/E is 11x in the Machinery industry in France. Total returns to shareholders of 253% over the past three years. New Risk • Sep 15
New minor risk - Financial position The company has a high level of debt. Net debt to equity ratio: 173% This is considered a minor risk. Having a high level of debt increases the company's balance sheet risk. The company has a higher interest repayment burden, leading to the need to allocate a greater amount of its earnings towards servicing the debt, potentially limiting growth options or shareholder distributions. It can also increase the risk of bankruptcy if business conditions deteriorate enough that the company can no longer meet its debt obligations. Currently, the following risks have been identified for the company: Minor Risks High level of debt (173% net debt to equity). Share price has been volatile over the past 3 months (8.4% average weekly change). Market cap is less than US$100m (€15.3m market cap, or US$16.4m). Price Target Changed • Nov 16
Price target decreased to €1.80 Down from €2.10, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 72% above last closing price of €1.05. Stock is down 24% over the past year. The company is forecast to post a net loss per share of €0.08 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.34 last year. Board Change • Nov 16
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 4 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 1 independent director (3 non-independent directors). Independent Director Patrick Leprat was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2016. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Reported Earnings • Oct 30
First half 2022 earnings released First half 2022 results: Revenue: €6.47m (up 38% from 1H 2021). Net loss: €684.0k (loss narrowed 42% from 1H 2021). Revenue is forecast to grow 19% p.a. on average during the next 3 years, compared to a 10% growth forecast for the Machinery industry in France. Price Target Changed • Jun 15
Price target decreased to €1.80 Down from €2.10, the current price target is provided by 1 analyst. New target price is 43% above last closing price of €1.26. Stock is down 16% over the past year. The company is forecast to post earnings per share of €0.06 next year compared to a net loss per share of €0.34 last year. Board Change • Apr 27
Less than half of directors are independent No new directors have joined the board in the last 3 years. The company's board is composed of: No new directors. 4 experienced directors. No highly experienced directors. 1 independent director (3 non-independent directors). Independent Director Patrick Leprat was the last independent director to join the board, commencing their role in 2016. The following issues are considered to be risks according to the Simply Wall St Risk Model: Minority of independent directors. Insufficient board refreshment. Is New 90 Day High Low • Feb 26
New 90-day low: €1.29 The company is down 15% from its price of €1.53 on 27 November 2020. The French market is up 4.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company underperformed over that time. It also underperformed the Machinery industry, which is down 4.0% over the same period. Is New 90 Day High Low • Nov 10
New 90-day high: €1.06 The company is up 83% from its price of €0.58 on 12 August 2020. The French market is up 8.0% over the last 90 days, indicating the company outperformed over that time. It also outperformed the Machinery industry, which is down 5.0% over the same period. Major Estimate Revision • Sep 24
Analysts update estimates The company's losses in 2020 are expected to worsen with analysts lowering their consensus EPS forecasts from -€0.69 to -€0.84. No change was made to the revenue estimate which at the last update was €8.60m. The Machinery industry in France is expected to see an average net income growth of 6.8% next year. The consensus price target was lowered from €0.90 to €0.80. Share price is down by 30% to €0.72 over the past week.