AKWEL (EPA:AKW) shareholders are probably feeling a little disappointed, since its shares fell 9.1% to €17.90 in the week after its latest yearly results. Revenues were €1.0b, and AKWEL came in a solid 11% ahead of expectations. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. With this in mind, we've gathered the latest statutory forecasts to see what the analysts are expecting for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from AKWEL's four analysts is for revenues of €1.09b in 2022, which would reflect a modest 5.3% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Statutory earnings per share are forecast to tumble 41% to €2.29 in the same period. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €969.5m and earnings per share (EPS) of €2.30 in 2022. It seems sentiment has certainly become more bullish on revenues, even though they haven't changed their view on earnings per share.
It may not be a surprise to see thatthe analysts have reconfirmed their price target of €29.00, implying that the uplift in sales is not expected to greatly contribute to AKWEL's valuation in the near term. Fixating on a single price target can be unwise though, since the consensus target is effectively the average of analyst price targets. As a result, some investors like to look at the range of estimates to see if there are any diverging opinions on the company's valuation. The most optimistic AKWEL analyst has a price target of €32.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €25.00. Even so, with a relatively close grouping of estimates, it looks like the analysts are quite confident in their valuations, suggesting AKWEL is an easy business to forecast or the the analysts are all using similar assumptions.
Taking a look at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can understand these forecasts is to see how they compare to both past performance and industry growth estimates. We would highlight that AKWEL's revenue growth is expected to slow, with the forecast 5.3% annualised growth rate until the end of 2022 being well below the historical 13% growth over the last year. By way of comparison, the other companies in this industry with analyst coverage are forecast to grow their revenue at 6.7% per year. So it's pretty clear that, while revenue growth is expected to slow down, the wider industry is also expected to grow faster than AKWEL.
The Bottom Line
The most obvious conclusion is that there's been no major change in the business' prospects in recent times, with the analysts holding their earnings forecasts steady, in line with previous estimates. They also upgraded their revenue estimates for next year, even though sales are expected to grow slower than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €29.00, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.
Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At Simply Wall St, we have a full range of analyst estimates for AKWEL going out to 2023, and you can see them free on our platform here..
We don't want to rain on the parade too much, but we did also find 2 warning signs for AKWEL that you need to be mindful of.
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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.