Orion Oyj Just Missed EPS By 5.4%: Here's What Analysts Think Will Happen Next

It's been a pretty great week for Orion Oyj (HEL:ORNBV) shareholders, with its shares surging 11% to €35.85 in the week since its latest first-quarter results. It was a pretty mixed result, with revenues beating expectations to hit €309m. Statutory earnings fell 5.4% short of analyst forecasts, reaching €0.31 per share. The analysts typically update their forecasts at each earnings report, and we can judge from their estimates whether their view of the company has changed or if there are any new concerns to be aware of. We've gathered the most recent statutory forecasts to see whether the analysts have changed their earnings models, following these results.

See our latest analysis for Orion Oyj

Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Orion Oyj's five analysts is for revenues of €1.35b in 2024. This reflects a solid 11% improvement in revenue compared to the last 12 months. Per-share earnings are expected to swell 17% to €1.81. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been anticipated revenues of €1.37b and earnings per share (EPS) of €1.69 in 2024. So the consensus seems to have become somewhat more optimistic on Orion Oyj's earnings potential following these results.

There's been no major changes to the consensus price target of €39.20, suggesting that the improved earnings per share outlook is not enough to have a long-term positive impact on the stock's valuation. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so - it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Orion Oyj analyst has a price target of €47.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at €28.00. These price targets show that analysts do have some differing views on the business, but the estimates do not vary enough to suggest to us that some are betting on wild success or utter failure.

Another way we can view these estimates is in the context of the bigger picture, such as how the forecasts stack up against past performance, and whether forecasts are more or less bullish relative to other companies in the industry. The analysts are definitely expecting Orion Oyj's growth to accelerate, with the forecast 15% annualised growth to the end of 2024 ranking favourably alongside historical growth of 5.1% per annum over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.8% annually. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it's pretty clear that Orion Oyj is expected to grow much faster than its industry.

The Bottom Line

The biggest takeaway for us is the consensus earnings per share upgrade, which suggests a clear improvement in sentiment around Orion Oyj's earnings potential next year. Fortunately, they also reconfirmed their revenue numbers, suggesting that it's tracking in line with expectations. Additionally, our data suggests that revenue is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. The consensus price target held steady at €39.20, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

With that in mind, we wouldn't be too quick to come to a conclusion on Orion Oyj. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year's profits. We have forecasts for Orion Oyj going out to 2026, and you can see them free on our platform here.

Plus, you should also learn about the 1 warning sign we've spotted with Orion Oyj .

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.