What Recent Growth Means for Alma Media Shares After Earnings Beat in 2025

Trying to make sense of Alma Media Oyj's current share price? You are not alone. Over the past year, the stock has delivered a remarkable 40.3% return and is up an impressive 33.3% year-to-date. Zooming out, five-year gains hit 146.6%, showing this is no overnight success story. Even in the past week, the shares ticked up 5.3% in a market that has closely followed broader European sentiment shifts and increased interest in digital businesses like Alma Media.

These moves have naturally sparked the question: are we seeing growth justified by fundamentals, or might the share price be outrunning the company's true value? Valuation is at the heart of that conversation. By standard investing yardsticks, Alma Media Oyj clocks a value score of 3 out of 6, which means it passes half the key checks for being undervalued. While that's not the strongest possible showing, it suggests some areas where the stock could still offer upside.

But as many savvy investors know, valuation is rarely one-size-fits-all. Next, we will dive into the main methods analysts use to judge whether Alma Media Oyj is fairly valued right now. At the end, I will share a perspective that just might give you an even clearer answer.

Why Alma Media Oyj is lagging behind its peers

Approach 1: Alma Media Oyj Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) Analysis

A Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model estimates the value of a business by projecting its future cash flows and discounting them back to today’s value. For Alma Media Oyj, this approach provides a fundamental look at the company’s profit-generating ability over time, independent of market sentiment.

Currently, Alma Media Oyj generates a Free Cash Flow (FCF) of €69.4 million. Analyst estimates suggest FCF could grow steadily over the coming years, reaching an estimated €75.1 million by 2029. Notably, projections for the following years are extrapolated, with FCF expected to remain in the €72 to €74 million range through 2035. All of these figures are in millions of euros, keeping well below the billion mark.

Based on this projected cash flow pathway and using a 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity DCF model, Alma Media’s estimated intrinsic value stands at €20.51 per share. With the DCF model indicating the stock is trading at a 26.9% discount to its intrinsic value, this suggests meaningful upside potential and implies the current market is underpricing the company.

Result: UNDERVALUED

Head to the Valuation section of our Company Report for more details on how we arrive at this Fair Value for Alma Media Oyj.

Our Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) analysis suggests Alma Media Oyj is undervalued by 26.9%. Track this in your watchlist or portfolio, or discover more undervalued stocks.

Approach 2: Alma Media Oyj Price vs Earnings

For profitable businesses like Alma Media Oyj, the Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is often the go-to valuation tool. It relates a company's market price to its earnings, making it particularly effective for established firms with consistent profits. The “right” PE ratio for any stock depends not just on its current earnings, but also on factors like future growth prospects and perceived risk. A fast-growing or lower-risk company typically commands a higher multiple than a slow-growth, riskier one.

Looking at the numbers, Alma Media Oyj currently trades at a PE ratio of 23.2x. To put that in perspective, this sits above the Media industry average of 17.6x and slightly above the peer average of 22.5x. So, by these simple comparisons, the stock appears a bit more expensive than most of its rivals.

Instead of just comparing with broad averages, Simply Wall St’s proprietary "Fair Ratio" takes a deeper look. It considers Alma Media Oyj’s own growth trajectory, margins, industry factors, market cap, and company-specific risks. This model assigns a Fair Ratio of 25.3x. Because it incorporates more company-specific insights, the Fair Ratio can provide a more tailored, objective assessment than traditional benchmarking methods.

With Alma Media Oyj’s current PE at 23.2x and its Fair Ratio at 25.3x, the share price actually trades at a discount to its fair value multiple. The difference is enough to suggest the stock has some room to run before it looks expensive on earnings alone.

Result: UNDERVALUED

PE ratios tell one story, but what if the real opportunity lies elsewhere? Discover companies where insiders are betting big on explosive growth.

Upgrade Your Decision Making: Choose your Alma Media Oyj Narrative

Earlier, we mentioned there is a smarter way to make sense of valuation, and this is where Narratives come in. A Narrative is more than just numbers; it is your own story about a company. It blends what you believe about its future with your assumptions for revenue, profits, and margins, all mapped to a fair value. Narratives connect the bigger picture, your outlook, and financial forecasts, giving you a powerful yet accessible tool to guide buy or sell decisions.

On Simply Wall St’s Community page, millions of investors use Narratives to track their reasoning, compare Fair Value with the current share price, and update their outlook whenever new news or earnings are announced. Because Narratives update dynamically as new information arrives, they help investors respond confidently, not reactively, as markets shift.

For example, some Alma Media Oyj investors are optimistic, forecasting robust digital revenue growth and a fair value north of €16, while more cautious users see macroeconomic headwinds and set their fair value closer to €12. Both perspectives are grounded in specific, transparent assumptions.

Do you think there's more to the story for Alma Media Oyj? Create your own Narrative to let the Community know!

This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.

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