Stock Analysis

UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) Has Affirmed Its Dividend Of €0.75

HLSE:UPM
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UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) has announced that it will pay a dividend of €0.75 per share on the 7th of November. This means the annual payment is 5.2% of the current stock price, which is above the average for the industry.

Check out our latest analysis for UPM-Kymmene Oyj

UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Earnings Easily Cover The Distributions

We like to see robust dividend yields, but that doesn't matter if the payment isn't sustainable. Based on the last payment, the company wasn't making enough to cover what it was paying to shareholders. This situation certainly isn't ideal, and could place significant strain on the balance sheet if it continues.

Analysts expect a massive rise in earnings per share in the next year. Assuming the dividend continues along recent trends, we estimate that the payout ratio could reach 54%, which is in a comfortable range for us.

historic-dividend
HLSE:UPM Historic Dividend August 5th 2024

UPM-Kymmene Oyj Has A Solid Track Record

Even over a long history of paying dividends, the company's distributions have been remarkably stable. Since 2014, the annual payment back then was €0.60, compared to the most recent full-year payment of €1.50. This works out to be a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 9.6% a year over that time. Companies like this can be very valuable over the long term, if the decent rate of growth can be maintained.

The Dividend Has Limited Growth Potential

The company's investors will be pleased to have been receiving dividend income for some time. However, things aren't all that rosy. UPM-Kymmene Oyj's EPS has fallen by approximately 22% per year during the past five years. Dividend payments are likely to come under some pressure unless EPS can pull out of the nosedive it is in. Over the next year, however, earnings are actually predicted to rise, but we would still be cautious until a track record of earnings growth can be built.

The Dividend Could Prove To Be Unreliable

Overall, we don't think this company makes a great dividend stock, even though the dividend wasn't cut this year. We can't deny that the payments have been very stable, but we are a little bit worried about the very high payout ratio. This company is not in the top tier of income providing stocks.

Companies possessing a stable dividend policy will likely enjoy greater investor interest than those suffering from a more inconsistent approach. Meanwhile, despite the importance of dividend payments, they are not the only factors our readers should know when assessing a company. Just as an example, we've come across 3 warning signs for UPM-Kymmene Oyj you should be aware of, and 1 of them is concerning. Looking for more high-yielding dividend ideas? Try our collection of strong dividend payers.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.