UPM-Kymmene Oyj

HLSE:UPM

Snowflake Description

Flawless balance sheet with solid track record and pays a dividend.

The Snowflake is generated from 30 checks in 5 different areas, read more below.

UPM

HLSE

€14B

Market Cap

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Last updated 2019/03/17 20:43

Company description

UPM-Kymmene Oyj operates in the forest-based bio industry. The last earnings update was 17 days ago. More info.

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UPM Share Price and Events

7 Day Returns

HLSE:UPM

1.6%

FI Forestry

3.4%

FI Market

1 Year Returns

-9.5%

HLSE:UPM

-12.6%

FI Forestry

3.3%

FI Market

UPM Shareholder Return

	7 Day	30 Day	90 Day	1 Year	3 Year	5 Year
UPM-Kymmene Oyj (UPM)	3%	-0.2%	18.7%	-9.5%	66%	122.9%
FI Forestry	1.6%	-1.4%	11.9%	-12.6%	8.9%	39.3%
FI Market	3.4%	3%	10.7%	3.3%	24.1%	42.4%

1 Year Return vs Industry and Market

UPM outperformed the Forestry industry which returned -12.6% over the past year.
UPM underperformed the Market in Finland which returned 3.3% over the past year.

Price Volatility

UPM

Industry

5yr Volatility vs Market

Related Companies

Value

Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj undervalued based on future cash flows and its price relative to the stock market?

Value is all about what a company is worth versus what price it is available for. If you went into a grocery store and all the bananas were on sale at half price, they could be considered undervalued.

INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS

Here we compare the current share price of UPM-Kymmene Oyj to its discounted cash flow analysis.value.

The discounted cash flow value is simply looking at what the company is worth today, based on estimates of how much money it is expected to make in the future.

Raw Data Our intrinsic value calculation method has changed recently, learn more here.

Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for UPM-Kymmene Oyj.

HLSE:UPM Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point	Source	Value
Valuation Model		2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow	Average of 13 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global)	See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity)	See below	8.6%
Perpetual Growth Rate	10-Year FI Government Bond Rate	0.5%

An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.

Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for HLSE:UPM
Data Point	Calculation/ Source	Result
Risk-Free Rate	10-Year FI Govt Bond Rate	0.5%
Equity Risk Premium	S&P Global	6.5%
Forestry Unlevered Beta	Simply Wall St/ S&P Global	1.29
Re-levered Beta	= Unlevered beta (1 + (1- tax rate) (Debt/Equity)) = 1.291 (1 + (1- 20%) (5.45%))	1.233
Levered Beta	Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0 (practical range for a stable firm)	1.23
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity	= Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium) = 0.54% + (1.233 * 6.51%)	8.57%

Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for HLSE:UPM using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity Model

The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for UPM-Kymmene Oyj is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We try to start with analysts estimates of free cash flow, however if these are not available we use the most recent financial results. In the 1st stage we continue to grow the free cash flow over a 10 year period, with the growth rate trending towards the perpetual growth rate used in the 2nd stage. The 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.

HLSE:UPM DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 year cash flow forecast
	Levered FCF (EUR, Millions)	Source	Present Value Discounted (@ 8.57%)
2019	1,274.00	Analyst x9	1,173.48
2020	1,166.20	Analyst x5	989.43
2021	1,129.00	Analyst x5	882.29
2022	1,123.00	Analyst x2	808.36
2023	1,013.50	Analyst x2	671.97
2024	985.40	Est @ -2.77%	601.80
2025	967.88	Est @ -1.78%	544.45
2026	957.40	Est @ -1.08%	496.06
2027	951.69	Est @ -0.6%	454.20
2028	949.26	Est @ -0.26%	417.30
Present value of next 10 years cash flows			€7,039.34

HLSE:UPM DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
	Calculation	Result
Terminal Value	= FCF₂₀₂₈ × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g) = €949.26 × (1 + 0.54%) ÷ (8.57% – 0.54%)	€11,891.07
Present Value of Terminal Value	= Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)¹⁰ = €11,891.07 ÷ (1 + 8.57%)¹⁰	€5,227.32

HLSE:UPM Total Equity Value
	Calculation	Result
Total Equity Value	= Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value = €7,039.34 + €5,227.32	€12,266.66
Equity Value per Share (EUR)	= Total value / Shares Outstanding = €12,266.66 / 533.32	€23

HLSE:UPM Discount to Share Price
	Calculation	Result
Value per share (EUR)	From above.	€23.00
Current discount	Discount to share price of €26.75 = -1 x (€26.75 - €23.00) / €23.00	-16.3%

Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model .

The current share price of UPM-Kymmene Oyj is above its future cash flow value.

Often investors are willing to pay a premium for a company that has a high dividend or the potential for future growth.

PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET

We can also value a company based on what the stock market is willing to pay for it. This is similar to the price of fruit (e.g. Mangoes or Avocados) increasing when they are out of season, or how much your home is worth.

The amount the stock market is willing to pay for UPM-Kymmene Oyj's earnings, growth and assets is considered below, and whether this is a fair price.

Price based on past earnings

Are UPM-Kymmene Oyj's earnings available for a low price, and how does this compare to other companies in the same industry?

Raw Data

HLSE:UPM PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point	Source	Value
Earnings Per Share *	Company Filings (2018-12-31) in EUR	€2.80
HLSE:UPM Share Price **	HLSE (2019-03-15) in EUR	€26.75
Europe Forestry Industry PE Ratio	Median Figure of 33 Publicly-Listed Forestry Companies	12.41x
Finland Market PE Ratio	Median Figure of 108 Publicly-Listed Companies	19.59x

* Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual GAAP earnings per share excluding extraordinary items.

** Primary Listing of UPM-Kymmene Oyj.

HLSE:UPM PE (Price to Earnings) Ratio Calculation
	Calculation	Outcome
PE Ratio	= HLSE:UPM Share Price ÷ EPS (both in EUR) = 26.75 ÷ 2.80	9.54x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

UPM-Kymmene Oyj is good value based on earnings compared to the Europe Forestry industry average.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj is good value based on earnings compared to the Finland market.

Price based on expected Growth

Does UPM-Kymmene Oyj's expected growth come at a high price?

Raw Data

HLSE:UPM PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point	Source	Value
PE Ratio	See PE Ratio Section	9.54x
Net Income Annual Growth Rate	See Future Growth Section. Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 13 Analysts	-9.2%per year
Europe Forestry Industry PEG Ratio	Median Figure of 22 Publicly-Listed Forestry Companies	1.15x
Finland Market PEG Ratio	Median Figure of 91 Publicly-Listed Companies	1.72x

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

HLSE:UPM PEG (Price to Earnings to Growth) Ratio Calculation
	Calculation	Outcome
PEG Ratio	= PE Ratio ÷ Net Income Annual Growth Rate = 9.54x ÷ -9.2%	-1.04x

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

UPM-Kymmene Oyj earnings are not expected to grow next year, we can't assess if its growth is good value.

Price based on value of assets

What value do investors place on UPM-Kymmene Oyj's assets?

Raw Data

HLSE:UPM PB (Price to Book) Ratio Data Sources
Data Point	Source	Value
Book Value per Share	Company Filings (2018-12-31) in EUR	€18.36
HLSE:UPM Share Price *	HLSE (2019-03-15) in EUR	€26.75
Europe Forestry Industry PB Ratio	Median Figure of 37 Publicly-Listed Forestry Companies	1.36x
Finland Market PB Ratio	Median Figure of 141 Publicly-Listed Companies	2.04x

HLSE:UPM PB (Price to Book) Ratio Calculation
	Calculation	Outcome
PB Ratio	= HLSE:UPM Share Price ÷ Book Value per Share (both in EUR) = 26.75 ÷ 18.36	1.46x

* Primary Listing of UPM-Kymmene Oyj.

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

UPM-Kymmene Oyj is overvalued based on assets compared to the Europe Forestry industry average.

Value checks

We assess UPM-Kymmene Oyj's value by looking at:

Is the discounted cash flow value less than 20%, or 40% of the share price? (2 checks) ( Click here or on bar chart for details of DCF calculation. )
Is the PE ratio less than the market average, and/ or less than the Forestry industry average (and greater than 0)? (2 checks)
Is the PEG ratio within a reasonable range (0 to 1)? (1 check)
Is the PB ratio less than the Forestry industry average (and greater than 0)? (1 check)

Full details on the Value part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Future Performance

How is UPM-Kymmene Oyj expected to perform in the next 1 to 3 years based on estimates from 13 analysts?

The future performance of a company is measured in the same way as past performance, by looking at estimated growth and how much profit it is expected to make.

Future estimates come from professional analysts. Just like forecasting the weather, they don’t always get it right!

-9.2%

Expected annual growth in earnings.

Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings

Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj expected to grow at an attractive rate?

UPM-Kymmene Oyj's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the low risk savings rate of 0.5%.

Growth vs Market Checks

UPM-Kymmene Oyj's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is below the Finland market average.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's revenue growth is positive but not above the Finland market average.

Annual Growth Rates Comparison

Raw Data

HLSE:UPM Future Growth Rates Data Sources
Data Point	Source	Value (per year)
HLSE:UPM Future Earnings Growth Rate	Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Earnings of 13 Analysts	-9.2%
HLSE:UPM Future Revenue Growth Rate	Line of Best Fit* through Consensus Estimate Revenue of 13 Analysts	0.3%
Europe Forestry Industry Earnings Growth Rate	Market Cap Weighted Average	0.2%
Europe Forestry Industry Revenue Growth Rate	Market Cap Weighted Average	2%
Finland Market Earnings Growth Rate	Market Cap Weighted Average	15.7%
Finland Market Revenue Growth Rate	Market Cap Weighted Average	0.9%

*Line of best fit is calculated by linear regression .

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Learn more about our growth rate calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.

Analysts growth expectations

Raw Data

HLSE:UPM Analysts Growth Expectations Data Sources
Data Point	Source	Value
Past Financials	Company Filings (2 months ago)	See Below
Future Estimates	Average of up to 13 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global)	See Below

All numbers in EUR Millions and using Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

HLSE:UPM Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions)	Revenue	Cash Flow	Net Income *	Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31	10,988	1,395		1
2022-12-31	10,634	1,613	1,094	3
2021-12-31	10,465	1,547	1,124	8
2020-12-31	10,515	1,549	1,160	13
2019-12-31	10,532	1,603	1,179	12

HLSE:UPM Past Financials Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions)	Revenue	Cash Flow	Net Income *
2018-12-31	10,483	1,391	1,495
2018-09-30	10,323	1,377	1,145
2018-06-30	10,166	1,430	1,106
2018-03-31	10,040	1,370	1,041
2017-12-31	10,010	1,558	973
2017-09-30	9,915	1,556	917
2017-06-30	9,867	1,576	899
2017-03-31	9,848	1,741	892
2016-12-31	9,812	1,686	879
2016-09-30	9,910	1,671	885
2016-06-30	9,995	1,528	1,025
2016-03-31	10,098	1,418	988

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

High Growth Checks

UPM-Kymmene Oyj's earnings are expected to decrease over the next 1-3 years, this is not considered high growth.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's revenue is expected to grow by 0.3% yearly, however this is not considered high growth (20% yearly).

Past and Future Earnings per Share

The accuracy of the analysts who estimate the future performance data can be gauged below. We look back 3 years and see if they were any good at predicting what actually occurred. We also show the highest and lowest estimates looking forward to see if there is a wide range.

Raw Data

HLSE:UPM Past and Future Earnings per Share
Data Point	Source	Value
Past Financials	Company Filings (2 months ago)	See Below
Future Estimates	Average of up to 13 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global)	See Below

All data from UPM-Kymmene Oyj Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

HLSE:UPM Future Estimates Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions)	EPS *	EPS High Estimate	EPS Low Estimate	Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31
2021-12-31	2.10	2.27	1.85	6.00
2020-12-31	2.14	2.28	1.83	9.00
2019-12-31	2.17	2.33	2.09	10.00

HLSE:UPM Past Financials Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions)	EPS *
2018-12-31	2.80
2018-09-30	2.15
2018-06-30	2.07
2018-03-31	1.95
2017-12-31	1.82
2017-09-30	1.72
2017-06-30	1.69
2017-03-31	1.67
2016-12-31	1.65
2016-09-30	1.66
2016-06-30	1.92
2016-03-31	1.85

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance in 3 years

In the same way as past performance we look at the future estimated return (profit) compared to the available funds. We do this looking forward 3 years.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj is not expected to efficiently use shareholders’ funds in the future (Return on Equity less than 20%).

Future performance checks

We assess UPM-Kymmene Oyj's future performance by looking at:

Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the low risk savings rate, plus a premium to keep pace with inflation?
Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in earnings of the Europe market? (1 check)
Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to beat the average growth rate in revenue of the Europe market? (1 check)
Is the annual earnings growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
Is the annual revenue growth rate expected to be above 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity in 3 years expected to be over 20%? (1 check)

Some of the above checks will fail if the company is expected to be loss making in the relevant year.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj has a total score of 0/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note 1: We use GAAP Net Income Excluding Exceptional Items for our Earnings in all our calculations.

Full details on the Future part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Past Performance

How has UPM-Kymmene Oyj performed over the past 5 years?

The past performance of a company can be measured by how much growth it has experienced and how much profit it makes relative to the funds and assets it has available.

Past earnings growth

Below we compare UPM-Kymmene Oyj's growth in the last year to its industry (Forestry).

Past Earnings growth analysis

We also check if the company has grown in the past 5 years, and whether it has maintained that growth in the year.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has delivered over 20% year on year earnings growth in the past 5 years.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's 1-year earnings growth exceeds its 5-year average (53.6% vs 20.8%)
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's earnings growth has exceeded the Europe Forestry industry average in the past year (53.6% vs 25%).

Earnings and Revenue History

UPM-Kymmene Oyj's revenue and profit over the past 5 years is shown below, any years where they have experienced a loss will show up in red.

Raw Data

All data from UPM-Kymmene Oyj Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago, and in Trailing twelve months (TTM) annual period rather than quarterly.

HLSE:UPM Past Revenue, Cash Flow and Net Income Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions)	Revenue	Net Income *	G+A Expenses
2018-12-31	10,483.00	1,495.00	37.00
2018-09-30	10,323.00	1,145.00	42.00
2018-06-30	10,166.00	1,106.00	42.00
2018-03-31	10,040.00	1,041.00	42.00
2017-12-31	10,010.00	973.00	42.00
2017-09-30	9,915.00	917.00	48.00
2017-06-30	9,867.00	899.00	48.00
2017-03-31	9,848.00	892.00	48.00
2016-12-31	9,812.00	879.00	48.00
2016-09-30	9,910.00	885.00	51.00
2016-06-30	9,995.00	1,025.00	51.00
2016-03-31	10,098.00	988.00	51.00
2015-12-31	10,138.00	916.00	51.00
2015-09-30	10,095.00	731.00	52.00
2015-06-30	9,980.00	505.00	52.00
2015-03-31	9,873.00	474.00	52.00
2014-12-31	9,868.00	512.00	52.00
2014-09-30	9,925.00	540.00	59.00
2014-06-30	9,982.00	496.00	59.00
2014-03-31	10,061.00	481.00	59.00
2013-12-31	10,054.00	335.00	59.00
2013-09-30	10,123.00	-1,187.00	62.00
2013-06-30	10,246.00	-1,289.00	62.00
2013-03-31	10,358.00	-1,195.00	62.00
2012-12-31	10,492.00	-1,122.00	62.00
2012-09-30	10,521.00	466.00	53.00
2012-06-30	10,529.00	321.00	53.00
2012-03-31	10,320.00	408.00	53.00

*GAAP earnings excluding extraordinary items.

Performance last year

We want to ensure a company is making the most of what it has available. This is done by comparing the return (profit) to a company's available funds, assets and capital.

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has not efficiently used shareholders’ funds last year (Return on Equity less than 20%).
UPM-Kymmene Oyj used its assets more efficiently than the Europe Forestry industry average last year based on Return on Assets.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj has significantly improved its use of capital last year versus 3 years ago (Return on Capital Employed).

Show me more strong past performing companies in the Forestry industry

Past performance checks

We assess UPM-Kymmene Oyj's performance over the past 5 years by checking for:

Has earnings increased in past 5 years? (1 check)
Has the earnings growth in the last year exceeded that of the Forestry industry? (1 check)
Is the recent earnings growth over the last year higher than the average annual growth over the past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the Return on Equity (ROE) higher than 20%? (1 check)
Is the Return on Assets (ROA) above industry average? (1 check)
Has the Return on Capital Employed (ROCE) increased from 3 years ago? (1 check)

The above checks will fail if the company has reported a loss in the most recent earnings report. Some checks require at least 3 or 5 years worth of data.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj has a total score of 5/6, see the detailed checks below.

Note: We use GAAP Net Income excluding extraordinary items in all our calculations.

Full details on the Past part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Health

How is UPM-Kymmene Oyj's financial health and their level of debt?

A company's financial position is much like your own financial position, it includes everything you own (assets) and owe (liabilities).

The boxes below represent the relative size of what makes up UPM-Kymmene Oyj's finances.

The net worth of a company is the difference between its assets and liabilities.

Net Worth

UPM-Kymmene Oyj is able to meet its short term (1 year) commitments with its holdings of cash and other short term assets.
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's cash and other short term assets cover its long term commitments.

Balance sheet

This treemap shows a more detailed breakdown of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's finances. If any of them are yellow this indicates they may be out of proportion and red means they relate to one of the checks below.

Assets

Liabilities and shares

The 'shares' portion represents any funds contributed by the owners (shareholders) and any profits.

High level of physical assets or inventory.
Debt is covered by short term assets, assets are 5.8x debt.

Historical Debt

Nearly all companies have debt. Debt in itself isn’t bad, however if the debt is too high, or the company can’t afford to pay the interest on its debts this may have impacts in the future.

The graphic below shows equity (available funds) and debt, we ideally want to see the red area (debt) decreasing.

If there is any debt we look at the companies capability to repay it, and whether the level has increased over the past 5 years.

Raw Data

All data from UPM-Kymmene Oyj Company Filings, last reported 2 months ago.

HLSE:UPM Past Debt and Equity Data
Date (Data in EUR Millions)	Total Equity	Total Debt	Cash & Short Term Investments
2018-12-31	9,797.00	778.00	888.00
2018-09-30	9,186.00	757.00	639.00
2018-06-30	8,733.00	957.00	464.00
2018-03-31	8,978.00	754.00	623.00
2017-12-31	8,664.00	1,113.00	716.00
2017-09-30	8,330.00	1,768.00	1,006.00
2017-06-30	8,078.00	1,887.00	664.00
2017-03-31	7,964.00	1,956.00	974.00
2016-12-31	8,237.00	2,419.00	992.00
2016-09-30	7,870.00	2,593.00	771.00
2016-06-30	7,662.00	2,739.00	459.00
2016-03-31	7,975.00	3,025.00	803.00
2015-12-31	7,944.00	3,066.00	626.00
2015-09-30	7,944.00	3,203.00	394.00
2015-06-30	7,631.00	3,381.00	409.00
2015-03-31	7,804.00	3,302.00	469.00
2014-12-31	7,480.00	3,464.00	700.00
2014-09-30	7,628.00	4,093.00	825.00
2014-06-30	7,327.00	4,063.00	794.00
2014-03-31	7,518.00	4,092.00	1,005.00
2013-12-31	7,455.00	4,128.00	787.00
2013-09-30	7,409.00	3,930.00	298.00
2013-06-30	7,360.00	4,197.00	314.00
2013-03-31	7,556.00	4,026.00	390.00
2012-12-31	7,461.00	4,141.00	486.00
2012-09-30	7,450.00	4,007.00	284.00
2012-06-30	7,433.00	4,071.00	89.00
2012-03-31	7,251.00	4,015.00	92.00

UPM-Kymmene Oyj's level of debt (7.9%) compared to net worth is satisfactory (less than 40%).
The level of debt compared to net worth has been reduced over the past 5 years (55.4% vs 7.9% today).
Debt is well covered by operating cash flow (178.8%, greater than 20% of total debt).
Interest payments on debt are well covered by earnings (EBIT is 70x coverage).

Show me more healthy companies in the Forestry industry

Financial health checks

We assess UPM-Kymmene Oyj's financial health by checking for:

Are short term assets greater than short term liabilities? (1 check)
Are short term assets greater than long term liabilities? (1 check)
Has the debt to equity ratio increased in the past 5 years? (1 check)
Is the debt to equity ratio over 40%? (1 check)
Is the debt covered by operating cash flow? (1 check)
Are earnings greater than 5x the interest on debt (if company pays interest at all)? (1 check)

For companies that are loss making and have been so on average in the past we replace the last 2 checks with:

Does cash and short term investments cover stable operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)
Does cash and short term investments cover growing operating expenses (recurring G&A and R&D) for more than 3 years? (1 check)

Full details on the Health part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Dividends

What is UPM-Kymmene Oyj's current dividend yield, its reliability and sustainability?

Dividends are regular cash payments to you from the company, similar to a bank paying you interest on a savings account.

Annual Dividend Income

4.86%

Current annual income from UPM-Kymmene Oyj dividends. Estimated to be 5.27% next year.

If you bought €2,000 of UPM-Kymmene Oyj shares you are expected to receive €97 in your first year as a dividend.

Dividend Amount

Here we look how much dividend is being paid, if any. Is it above what you can get in a savings account? It is up there with the best dividend paying companies?

UPM-Kymmene Oyj's pays a higher dividend yield than the bottom 25% of dividend payers in Finland (2.29%).
UPM-Kymmene Oyj's dividend is below the markets top 25% of dividend payers in Finland (4.89%).

Upcoming dividend payment

Purchase UPM-Kymmene Oyj on or before the 'Buy Limit' to receive their next dividend payment.

Dividends are usually paid every 3 or 6 months, you can time your share purchase to take advantage of upcoming dividend payments.

Annualized Historical and Future Dividends

It is important to see if the dividend for a company is stable, and not wildly increasing/decreasing each year. This graph shows you the historical rate to count toward your assessment of the stock.

We also check to see if the dividend has increased in the past 10 years.

Raw Data

HLSE:UPM Annualized Past and Future Dividends
Data Point	Source	Value
Past Annualized Dividend Yield	S&P Global Market Data	See Below
Past Dividends per Share	Company Filings/ Annualized Dividend Payments	See Below
Future Dividends per Share Estimates	Average of up to 13 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global)	See Below
Europe Forestry Industry Average Dividend Yield	Market Cap Weighted Average of 23 Stocks	4.1%
Finland Market Average Dividend Yield	Market Cap Weighted Average of 101 Stocks	4.1%
Finland Minimum Threshold Dividend Yield	10th Percentile	1.5%
Finland Bottom 25% Dividend Yield	25th Percentile	2.3%
Finland Top 25% Dividend Yield	75th Percentile	4.9%

Industry and Market average data is calculated daily.

Note all dividend per share amounts are annualized and not quarterly or other period.

HLSE:UPM Future Dividends Estimate Data
Date (Data in €)	Dividend per Share (annual)	Avg. No. Analysts
2023-12-31
2022-12-31	1.45	1.00
2021-12-31	1.46	8.00
2020-12-31	1.43	14.00
2019-12-31	1.36	14.00

HLSE:UPM Past Annualized Dividends Data
Date (Data in €)	Dividend per share (annual)	Avg. Yield (%)
2019-01-31	1.300	4.867
2018-01-31	1.150	4.010
2017-03-29	0.950	3.883
2016-04-07	0.750	3.882
2015-04-09	0.700	4.374
2014-02-26	0.600	4.609
2014-01-30	0.600	4.834
2013-01-31	0.600	6.347
2012-08-09	0.600	6.776
2012-08-07	0.600	6.653
2012-02-15	0.600	6.527
2012-02-01	0.600	5.889
2011-02-02	0.550	5.277
2010-02-02	0.450	4.122
2009-03-18	0.400	5.535

Learn more about our ratios and growth rates in Simply Wall St’s analysis model >

Dividends per share have been stable in the past 10 years.
Dividends per share have increased over the past 10 years.

Current Payout to shareholders

What portion of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's earnings are paid to the shareholders as a dividend.

Dividends paid are well covered by earnings (2.2x coverage).

Future Payout to shareholders

Dividends after 3 years are expected to be covered by earnings (1.5x coverage).

Show me more dividend paying companies in the Forestry industry

Income/ dividend checks

We assess UPM-Kymmene Oyj's dividend by checking for:

Firstly is the company paying a notable dividend (greater than 1.5%) - if not then the rest of the checks are ignored.
Is current dividend yield above the bottom 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
Is current dividend yield above the top 25% of dividend payers? (1 check)
Have they paid a dividend for 10 years, and during this period has the dividend been volatile (drop of more than 25%)? (1 check)
If they have paid a dividend for 10 years has it increased in this time? (1 check)
How sustainable is the dividend, can UPM-Kymmene Oyj afford to pay it from its earnings today and in 3 years (Payout ratio less than 90%)? (2 checks)

Full details on the Dividends part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

Management

What is the CEO of UPM-Kymmene Oyj's salary, the management and board of directors tenure and is there insider trading?

Management is one of the most important areas of a company. We look at unreasonable CEO compensation, how long the team and board of directors have been around for and insider trading.

CEO

Jussi Pesonen

COMPENSATION	€5,978,000
AGE	58
TENURE AS CEO	15.2 years

CEO Bio

Mr. Jussi Pesonen, M.Sc. (Eng.), has been Chief Executive Officer and President of UPM-Kymmene Oyj since January 29, 2004 and has been its Head of UPM Biorefining since November 2018. Mr. Pesonen serves as Deputy Supervisor of Investment Operations at Ilmarinen Pension Insurance Co. Ltd. He served as the Chief Operating Officer of UPM-Kymmene from September 2001 to January 30, 2004 and as its Executive Vice President since September 2001 with responsibility for the Paper Industry business area. Mr. Pesonen served as a Senior Executive Vice President and Head of Wood Products and Converting Divisions of UPM-Kymmeme until January 30, 2004. He served as Vice-President of the Newsprint division of UPM-Kymmene Corporation since 2001 and Deputy to the President and Chief Executive Officer from 2001 to 2004. He joined UPM in 1987 and occupied several posts, including Production Manager at Jämsänkoski mill and Production Unit Director of Kajaani and Kaukas mills and Shotton Paper Ltd. and served as its Executive Vice President since September 2001. He has been Chairman of the Board of Finnish Forest Industries Federation since November 2013. Mr. Pesonen served as the Chairman of Confederation of European Paper Industries since January 01, 2012. He served as the Chairman of Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company from January 25, 2012 to December 31, 2015 and its Director until December 31,2015. He served as Vice Chairman of Metsä Fibre Oy and its Director since 2004. He has been a Director of UPM-Kymmene Oyj since March 27, 2007. He has been a Director of Finnish Forest Industries Federation since 2003 and Confederation of Finnish Industries EK since 2005. He serves as a Member of Supervisory Board at Ilmarinen Mutual Pension Insurance Company. He served as a Director of Outokumpu Oyj since March 2009. He served as a Director of Sampo Oyj since April 5, 2006. He served as a Member of the Boards of Cepiprint. Mr. Pesonen holds a Master of Science degree in Engineering from the University of Oulu, Finland.

CEO Compensation

Jussi's compensation has been consistent with company performance over the past year.
Jussi's remuneration is higher than average for companies of similar size in Finland.

Management Team Tenure

Average tenure and age of the UPM-Kymmene Oyj management team in years:

10.2

Average Tenure

Average Age

The average tenure for the UPM-Kymmene Oyj management team is over 5 years, this suggests they are a seasoned and experienced team.

Management Team

Jussi Pesonen

Average tenure and age of the UPM-Kymmene Oyj board of directors in years:

6.5

Average Tenure

Average Age

The tenure for the UPM-Kymmene Oyj board of directors is about average.

0.9 yrs

Who owns this company?

Recent Insider Trading

No 3 month insider trading information.

Recent Insider Transactions

Announced	Type	Name	Entity	Role		Start	End	Shares	Max Price (€)	Value (€)

Management checks

We assess UPM-Kymmene Oyj's management by checking for:

Is the CEO's compensation unreasonable compared to market cap? (1 check)
Has the CEO's compensation increased more than 20% whilst the EPS is down more then 20%? (1 check)
Is the average tenure of the management team less than 2 years? (1 check)
Is the average tenure of the board of directors team less than 3 years? (1 check)

Note: We use the top 6 management executives and board members in our calculations.

Note 2: Insider trading include any internal stakeholders and these transactions .

Full details on the Management part of the Simply Wall St company analysis model.

News

Simply Wall St News

Grab UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) Today With A Solid 5.0% Dividend Yield

Over the past 10 years UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) has grown its dividend payouts from €0.40 to €1.3. … consistent, reliable and competitive dividend over a long period of time, and is expected to continue to pay in the same manner many years to come … It is paying an annual yield above 75% of dividend payers

Simply Wall St - 3 days ago – Full article

UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM): Set To Experience A Decrease In Earnings?

In December 2018, UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) released its most recent earnings announcement, whicha … confirmed … company

Simply Wall St - 1 week ago – Full article

Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) Expensive For A Reason? A Look At The Intrinsic Value

by taking the expected future cash flows and discounting them to today's value. … discounted cash flows (DCF) … If you want to learn more about discounted cash flow, the basis for my calcs can be read in detail in the Simply Wall St analysis model.

Simply Wall St - 1 month ago – Full article

Should UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) Be Part Of Your Dividend Portfolio?

Help shape the future of investing tools and you could win a $250 gift card! … There is a lot to be liked about UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) as an income stock. … Let's dig deeper into whether UPM-Kymmene Oyj should have a place in your portfolio.

Simply Wall St - 1 month ago – Full article

A Close Look At UPM-Kymmene Oyj’s (HEL:UPM) 12% ROCE

Specifically, we're going to calculate its Return On Capital Employed (ROCE), in the hopes of getting some insight into the business. … Understanding Return On Capital Employed (ROCE). … ROCE measures the amount of pre-tax profits a company can generate from the capital employed in its business.

Simply Wall St - 1 month ago – Full article

Why I Like UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM)

UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) is a stock with outstanding fundamental characteristics. … When we build an investment case, we need to look at the stock with a holistic perspective. … In the case of UPM, it

Simply Wall St - 2 months ago – Full article

Do Institutions Own UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) Shares?

Institutions will often hold stock in bigger companies, and we expect to see insiders owning a noticeable percentage of the smaller ones. … Companies that used to be publicly owned tend to have lower insider ownership. … Companies of this size are usually well known to retail investors, too.

Simply Wall St - 2 months ago – Full article

Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj's (HEL:UPM) CEO Pay Justified?

How Does Jussi Pesonen's Compensation Compare With Similar Sized Companies. … At the time of writing our data says that UPM-Kymmene Oyj has a market cap of €12b, and is paying total annual CEO compensation of €5.3m. … We looked at a group of companies with market capitalizations over €7.0b and the median CEO compensation was €4.1m

Simply Wall St - 2 months ago – Full article

Is UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) As Strong As Its Balance Sheet Indicates?

Common characteristics for these big stocks are their strong balance sheet and high liquidity, which means there's plenty of stocks available to the public for trading. … These firms won’t be left high and dry if liquidity dries up, and they will be relatively unaffected by rises in interest rates. … Today I will analyse the latest financial data for UPM to determine is solvency and liquidity and whether the stock is a sound investment.

Simply Wall St - 3 months ago – Full article

Do You Like UPM-Kymmene Oyj (HEL:UPM) At This P/E Ratio?

UPM-Kymmene Oyj has a price to earnings ratio of 11.32, based on the last twelve months. … How Do I Calculate UPM-Kymmene Oyj's Price To Earnings Ratio … Price to Earnings Ratio = Price per Share ÷ Earnings per Share (EPS)

Simply Wall St - 3 months ago – Full article

Company Info

Description

UPM-Kymmene Oyj operates in the forest-based bio industry. It operates through UPM Biorefining, UPM Energy, UPM Raflatac, UPM Specialty Papers, UPM Communication Papers, UPM Plywood, and Other operations segments. The company provides eucalyptus, birch, and softwood pulp grades for tissue, specialty and graphic papers, boards, and packaging; sawn timber for construction, packaging, distribution, joinery, and furniture industries; and wood-based renewable diesel and renewable naphtha for fuel distributors, transportation, and oil and petrochemicals industries. It is also involved in the generation of electricity through hydro, nuclear, and condensing power plants. In addition, the company offers self-adhesive papers and film label stocks for product and information labelling to label printers and brand owners in food, beverage, personal care, pharmaceutical, and retail segments; label papers and release liners, fine papers, and flexible packaging, as well as label and packaging papers production lines for retailers, printers, publishers, distributors, and paper converters; and graphic papers for advertising, magazines, newspapers, and home and office to publishers, cataloguers, retailers, printers, and merchants. Further, it provides plywood and veneer products for construction, vehicle flooring, liquefied natural gas shipbuilding, and other manufacturing industries; wood and wood-based biomass, and forestry services for woodland and forest owners; outdoor products for construction, and granulates for injection molding and extrusion; wood-based lignin products for industrial use and cell culture hydrogel products for biomedical applications; and biomedical products. The company primarily operates in Europe, North America, and Asia. UPM-Kymmene Oyj was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in Helsinki, Finland.

Details

Name:	UPM-Kymmene Oyj
Ticker:	UPM
Exchange:	HLSE
Founded:	1995
Market Cap:	€14,266,418,230
Shares outstanding:	533,324,046
Website:	http://www.upm.com
Address:	UPM-Kymmene Oyj Alvar Aallon katu 1, Helsinki, Uusimaa, 00101, Finland

Listings

Exchange Symbol	Ticker Symbol	Security	Exchange	Country	Currency	Listed on
HLSE	UPM	Ordinary Shares	OMX Nordic Exchange Helsinki	FI	EUR	03. May 1996
OTCPK	UPMK.F	Ordinary Shares	Pink Sheets LLC	US	USD	03. May 1996
DB	RPL	Ordinary Shares	Deutsche Boerse AG	DE	EUR	03. May 1996
XTRA	RPL	Ordinary Shares	XETRA Trading Platform	DE	EUR	03. May 1996
LSE	0NV5	Ordinary Shares	London Stock Exchange	GB	EUR	03. May 1996
OTCPK	UPMK.Y	SPONSORED ADR	Pink Sheets LLC	US	USD	29. Jun 1999

Number of employees

Current staff

18,978

UPM-Kymmene Oyj employees.

Industry

Industry:	Paper Products
Sector:	Materials

Company Analysis and Financial Data Status

Area	Date (UTC time)
Company Analysis updated:	2019/03/17 20:43
End of day share price update:	2019/03/15 00:00
Last estimates confirmation:	2019/03/15
Last earnings filing:	2019/02/28
Last earnings reported:	2018/12/31
Last annual earnings reported:	2018/12/31

All dates and times in UTC. All financial data provided by Standard & Poor’s Capital IQ.

Unless specified all financial data is based on a yearly period but updated quarterly. This is known as Trailing Twelve Month (TTM) or Last Twelve Month (LTM) Data. Learn more here.

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UPM-Kymmene Oyj

UPM Share Price and Events

7 Day Returns

1 Year Returns

UPM Shareholder Return

1 Year Return vs Industry and Market

Price Volatility

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Value

INTRINSIC VALUE BASED ON FUTURE CASH FLOWS

PRICE RELATIVE TO MARKET

Price based on past earnings

Price based on expected Growth

Price based on value of assets

Value checks

Future Performance

Earnings growth vs Low Risk Savings

Growth vs Market Checks

Annual Growth Rates Comparison

Analysts growth expectations

High Growth Checks

Past and Future Earnings per Share

Performance in 3 years

Future performance checks

Past Performance

Past earnings growth

Past Earnings growth analysis

Earnings and Revenue History

Performance last year

Past performance checks

Health

Net Worth

Balance sheet

Assets

Liabilities and shares

Historical Debt

Financial health checks

Dividends

Annual Dividend Income

Dividend Amount

Upcoming dividend payment

Annualized Historical and Future Dividends

Current Payout to shareholders

Future Payout to shareholders

Income/ dividend checks

Management

CEO

CEO Bio

CEO Compensation

Management Team Tenure

Management Team

Jussi Pesonen

President

€6M

58

15.2 yrs

Tapio Korpeinen

CFO & Executive VP of UPM Energy

55

8.8 yrs

Jyrki Ovaska

Executive Vice President of Technology

60

5.3 yrs

Mika Mikkola

Vice President of Investor Relations

7.6 yrs

Juha Mäkelä

General Counsel

56

13.8 yrs

Riitta Savonlahti

Executive Vice President of Human Resources

54

14.8 yrs

Pirkko Harrela

Executive Vice President of Stakeholder Relations